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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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10 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Believe this show temperatures anomalies rather than temperatures.  Still seriously chilly though. 

It literally says 2m temperatures on the top. Ridging from the North Pole to just N of Alaska through the extended period has already and will continue to deliver frigid air into North America. Widespread -30s in place over the NW Territories this morning. 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Because that's never happened in this region and although it's physically possible, it's an extreme case particularly in this area. 

Most likely case would be a rain to arctic cold system, sleet storm, or a much warmer freezing rain event. 

Depends on your definition of region? I have personally watched pretty heavy freezing rain falling with a temp of +3° here.

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It would be fun to see the city drop below zero but no one should be rooting for what the models are showing after the storms. I experienced -20 in Ithaca in February 2014 (no wind, fortunately) and it was insanely cold. If you didn't wear goggles your eyes would instantly water from the cold and start to freeze shut.

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33 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I believe that ice storm in 1994 hammered us at the Jersey Shore as well and was the same day as the California earthquake.  We may have been off for school for MLK day. That was the most ice I've ever seen at the shore.  It was even worse a few miles northwest of Belmar.  

The 93-94 winter had a massive freezing rain storm in the metro with temps in the single digits, further upstate had freezing rain with temps below zero

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Dec 16th, 1973 was one of Long Islands (south of the LIE)worst ice storms  It was the day that OJ ran for 200 yards against the Jets at Shea  I remember watching the snow/sleet mix at Shea while just 25 miles to the ESE in Wantagh it was 27F with a steady rain  The next morning with brilliant sunshine was a sight to behold  albeit as treacherous as you can imagine.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs has redevelopment further SE. I think that's possible given the strength of the polar air to the north. 

I think a snow/sleet event is on the table too.

This is one time that I would root for an MJO 4-5 stronger SE Ridge vs an ice event. May be very tough to get a pure snow event Jan 20 with dueling -EPO vs MJO 4-5.

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Just now, bluewave said:

This is one time that I would root for an MJO 4-5 stronger SE Ridge vs an ice event. May be very tough to get a pure snow event with the Jan 20 storm with dueling -EPO vs MJO 4-5.

Oddly enough the Canadian seems to be seeing an ugly SE ridge trying to form days 8-10.  You have to wonder if the models are starting to pick up on that MJO rearing it’s head again.  The Euro has gotten somewhat stale on the cold too the last few runs 

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12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That must be the ice storm I remember with heavy freezing rain and a temp of 3°.

That’s the one. I believe it was January 1994. Unmodified arctic air at the surface, like 2+ feet of snowcover and freezing rain. It was a crippling ice storm

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23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I LOL Gfs is now suppressing the first wave into the MA.  You can’t make this stuff  up


 

 

It seems like there’s some winters that just want to snow, it snows in unfavorable setups, just comes out of nowhere, then there’s the ones that just find any excuse not to snow....

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s the one. I believe it was January 1994. Unmodified arctic air at the surface, like 2+ feet of snowcover and freezing rain. It was a crippling ice storm

The way i remember it was that amazing crippling ice storm on a friday night during the first week in January. In February 1994 we had close to 10 inches of snow on a Tuesday and another 10 inches 2 days later. Amazing together with below zero temp that month too

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Just now, sferic said:

The way i remember it was that amazing crippling ice storm on a friday night during the first week in January. In February 1994 we had close to 10 inches of snow on a Tuesday and another 10 inches 2 days later. Amazing together with below zero temp that month too

93-94 had everything. I was home for the early Jan storm and temps were in the low 20s with freezing rain and I remember watching them creep up a degree an hour thinking it's going to take 8 or more hours til we reach the freezing mark. Then I went back to central PA for the most incredible 2 months of snow I've ever seen.

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It seems like there’s some winters that just want to snow, it snows in unfavorable setups, just comes out of nowhere, then there’s the ones that just find any excuse not to snow....

The Op GFS looks out to lunch on the 17th being suppressed.  Unfortunately all the 12Z models and ensembles that are out so far now show Great Lakes low interference on that event so it may be headed into the trash bin as far as being a snow producer.  The 20th might be the only shot right now 

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

93-94 had everything. I was home for the early Jan storm and temps were in the low 20s with freezing rain and I remember watching them creep up a degree an hour thinking it's going to take 8 or more hours til we reach the freezing mark. Then I went back to central PA for the most incredible 2 months of snow I've ever seen.

Then there was a 50+ degree rainstorm that washed all that snow off the ice, clogging street drains and causing flooding. It was a horrific period, and no one was ready for it.

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6 minutes ago, sferic said:

The way i remember it was that amazing crippling ice storm on a friday night during the first week in January. In February 1994 we had close to 10 inches of snow on a Tuesday and another 10 inches 2 days later. Amazing together with below zero temp that month too

Think this is the storm you're talking about. Trying to dig up surface obs but Plymouth State & Iowa State don't go back far enough.

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