January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The 18z was still good but more realistic

18Z GFS Para

[SnoSki14]

There's a small wave before the bigger storm next week that could be a significant player, it may even deliver some snow/mixed precip.

The stronger the first wave, the more likely the 20th storm would be further south and less prone to cutting.

GEFS looked excellent. Many, many opportunities if the 20th system doesn't work out.

The dam is about to burst, all signs point to significant snow before the month ends.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

23z RAP trended nw quite a bit from 21z.. through 21hr. (wish I had a GIF animator)

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a small wave before the bigger storm next week that could be a significant player, it may even deliver some snow/mixed precip.

The stronger the first wave, the more likely the 20th storm would be further south and less prone to cutting.

GEFS looked excellent. Many, many opportunities if the 20th system doesn't work out.

The dam is about to burst, all signs point to significant snow before the month ends.

And that first wave may be impacted by what the Canadian clipper does 3 days from now.  If that blows up off the Maritimes the high might be blocked and the first system could be snowier.  Right now it seems the flow is too southeast near the coast on most of the ensembles for anything but rain on it but a slightly better position of the high would help 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a small wave before the bigger storm next week that could be a significant player, it may even deliver some snow/mixed precip.

The stronger the first wave, the more likely the 20th storm would be further south and less prone to cutting.

GEFS looked excellent. Many, many opportunities if the 20th system doesn't work out.

The dam is about to burst, all signs point to significant snow before the month ends.

The models look great moving forward. I agree with you about the wave before the main event.

Euro was strong with that wave which forced the main event further south.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

and this is why you can't trust the models this far out Euro went from MECS to next to nothing too

Yes and no.  Euro still shows a potent storm with 10"+ for Dover to Toms River and a few inches along 95 and the ensembles are better for the 95 corridor.  And the 18Z GFS-FV3 shows an area wide bomb.  Point is that huge potential is still there, but we're 7-8 days out, so we're seeing the normal error bars one would expect that far out.  I'll be very surprised if we don't see more snowy solutions in the next couple of day, as well as some misses.  

[RU848789]

Anyone else surprised at the AFD from Mt. Holly, below?  They only mention rain, when they must've seen last night's snowy runs and at least today's snowy 12Z CMC and 12Z Euro (even if more of a coastal snowstorm), but it's almost as if they only looked at the rainy 12Z GFS/GFS-FV3.  OKX was at least more non-committal, just mentioning heavy "precip" possibility. 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
647 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Friday and Saturday...the quiet weather comes to a close as an upper-
level trough begins to amplify across the central U.S., leading to
cyclogenesis and deepening of a surface low as it moves across the
country. The Rossby Wave pattern becomes highly amplified, thus
stretching an area of PV across the eastern U.S. The synoptic trough
thus looks to become quite broad as it moves into the eastern U.S. A
strong baroclinic zone looks to set up over the Mid-Atlantic, which
will likely aid in the maintenance of the surface low and
provide sufficient isentropic lift. This has the look of a
potential heavy/prolonged rain pattern, thus will need to watch
the evolution of this system over the coming week. Global
forecast models are suggesting a fairly moist pattern will take
shape ahead of the developing surface low, with widespread
rainfall, though the heaviest does appear to be over the open
Atlantic at this time. Otherwise, with southerly flow starting
Friday, highs will nudge upward into the low 30s across the
southern Poconos to near 50 across southern Delaware.

National Weather Service New York NY
705 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Model spread increases through the weekend on
amplitude/orientation/timing of a developing deep eastern trough,
dependent on earlier mentioned northern/southern stream interaction.
The implication is potential for a parade of lows pressure waves
developing along an increasingly longitudinally oriented cold front
extending down into the Gulf of Mexico. With sub-tropical connection
ahead of the troughing, moderate potential exists for heavy
precipitation into the Mid Atlantic next weekend, possibly working
into the local region. Sensible weather details will be dependent on
evolution of the northern/southern stream interactions and
position/orientation of cold front. Will likely be a few days before
the main players come into better sampling range to increase
confidence in the details of this part of the forecast.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Baltimore and Washington, DC are poised to pick up their biggest snowstorm since March 20-22, 2018 and possibly January 22-23, 2016. Washington, DC could receive 4"-8" snow and Baltimore 3"-6" snow by the time the storm departs on Sunday. Some locally higher amounts are likely in and around the Washington area. Atlantic City, Philadelphia and Harrisburg could see 2"-4". A coating remains possible from central New Jersey to perhaps even parts of New York City. The 18z RGEM shows potential for up to 0.5" in New York City, so there is some support for a coating in the City.

Additional storms are likely over the following 1-2 weeks as winter begins to lock the region into a generally cold and snowy grip.

The SOI was -5.84 today. It has been negative for 11 out of the last 13 days.

The AO was -1.400. That is the 7th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.050.

On January 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.060 (RMM). That amplitude was below the January 10-adjusted figure of 1.606.

Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the baseline scenario remains the MJO's gradually moving into Phase 1 at perhaps a low amplitude or moving into low amplitude shortly afterward. Once that happens, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude.

A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination. Today's Middle Atlantic snowstorm is occurring with just such a combination (preliminary PNA: +0.818).

Following this weekend's storm, another storm or storms could impact the region during the January 19-21 period and again during the January 23-25 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall from either or both of these events.

The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, 2nd lowest such figure since winter 1999-00 when no measurable snow had fallen through January 12). In fact, following the current storm, Washington, DC's snowfall could exceed the January normal figure.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area is also increasing.

Don I believe we need just one snow storm to set off the new pattern and once it's started, it'll be like an avalanche going forward.  Models often accelerate the time of the pattern change, which is why we've seen so much oscillation, but it's within the medium range now.

Do you look to this winter perhaps not being as snowy as 2002-03, 2009-10 or 2014-15 but snowier than 2012-13 going forward?

 

[RDRY]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Anyone else surprised at the AFD from Mt. Holly, below?  They only mention rain, when they must've seen last night's snowy runs and at least today's snowy 12Z CMC and 12Z Euro (even if more of a coastal snowstorm), but it's almost as if they only looked at the rainy 12Z GFS/GFS-FV3.  OKX was at least more non-committal, just mentioning heavy "precip" possibility. 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
647 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Friday and Saturday...the quiet weather comes to a close as an upper-
level trough begins to amplify across the central U.S., leading to
cyclogenesis and deepening of a surface low as it moves across the
country. The Rossby Wave pattern becomes highly amplified, thus
stretching an area of PV across the eastern U.S. The synoptic trough
thus looks to become quite broad as it moves into the eastern U.S. A
strong baroclinic zone looks to set up over the Mid-Atlantic, which
will likely aid in the maintenance of the surface low and
provide sufficient isentropic lift. This has the look of a
potential heavy/prolonged rain pattern, thus will need to watch
the evolution of this system over the coming week. Global
forecast models are suggesting a fairly moist pattern will take
shape ahead of the developing surface low, with widespread
rainfall, though the heaviest does appear to be over the open
Atlantic at this time. Otherwise, with southerly flow starting
Friday, highs will nudge upward into the low 30s across the
southern Poconos to near 50 across southern Delaware.

National Weather Service New York NY
705 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Model spread increases through the weekend on
amplitude/orientation/timing of a developing deep eastern trough,
dependent on earlier mentioned northern/southern stream interaction.
The implication is potential for a parade of lows pressure waves
developing along an increasingly longitudinally oriented cold front
extending down into the Gulf of Mexico. With sub-tropical connection
ahead of the troughing, moderate potential exists for heavy
precipitation into the Mid Atlantic next weekend, possibly working
into the local region. Sensible weather details will be dependent on
evolution of the northern/southern stream interactions and
position/orientation of cold front. Will likely be a few days before
the main players come into better sampling range to increase
confidence in the details of this part of the forecast.

They're the top mets. I'll pay it some mind.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I believe we need just one snow storm to set off the new pattern and once it's started, it'll be like an avalanche going forward.  Models often accelerate the time of the pattern change, which is why we've seen so much oscillation, but it's within the medium range now.

Do you look to this winter perhaps not being as snowy as 2002-03, 2009-10 or 2014-15 but snowier than 2012-13 going forward?

 

I think the pattern will be quite explosive. I could see 30" in 30 days as being within the realm of possibility. Then, we'll see what happens afterward.

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

They're the top mets. I'll pay it some mind.

I generally love the NWS guys and use them all the time as my favorite source.  However, they're not infallible (both Philly and Mt. Holly blew the 11/15 storm badly, when multiple models were showing 3-6" of snow and they never wavered from their 1-2" forecasts until the event was underway) and sometimes their long-term discussions seem a bit incomplete, like this one by Mt. Holly.  

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think the pattern will be quite explosive. I could see 30" in 30 days as being within the realm of possibility. Then, we'll see what happens afterward.

I believe we have a chance that with this delay the snow season could extend well into March.

If indeed the mid November event and the high amplitude MJO delayed the pattern change then it's also possible that its ending will also be delayed.  Patterns usually last for around 6-8 weeks so if the pattern change occurs now, the new pattern could last to around the equinox.

The only real worry is once the pattern does change will it favor eastern New England more than us, like what happened in 2012-13 and 2014-15?  Or does this winter stand more of a chance of having big events that cover a more widespread region than those winters did?  Something more like PD2 rather than the types of snow events we had in 2012-13 and 2014-15 which were far more limited in scope and coverage?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I generally love the NWS guys and use them all the time as my favorite source.  However, they're not infallible (both Philly and Mt. Holly blew the 11/15 storm badly, when multiple models were showing 3-6" of snow and they never wavered from their 1-2" forecasts until the event was underway) and sometimes their long-term discussions seem a bit incomplete, like this one by Mt. Holly.  

Maybe they thing it'll be a gradient pattern? The Mt Holly NWS coverage area is generally south of Upton.

[Rjay]

Lol did anyone see the srefs? 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I believe we have a chance that with this delay the snow season could extend well into March.

If indeed the mid November event and the high amplitude MJO delayed the pattern change then it's also possible that its ending will also be delayed.  Patterns usually last for around 6-8 weeks so if the pattern change occurs now, the new pattern could last to around the equinox.

The only real worry is once the pattern does change will it favor eastern New England more than us, like what happened in 2012-13 and 2014-15?  Or does this winter stand more of a chance of having big events that cover a more widespread region than those winters did?  Something more like PD2 rather than the types of snow events we had in 2012-13 and 2014-15 which were far more limited in scope and coverage?

 

It’s too soon to be sure. Some winters with a similar ENSO state have see accumulating snows continue well into March.

[Rjay]

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe they thing it'll be a gradient pattern? The Mt Holly NWS coverage area is generally south of Upton.

Doubtful.  Mt. Holly's NW 1/3 of their CWA is colder and snowier than all of NYC metro/LI, which are S/E of those areas /e(since most gradients for coastal storms are NW to SE, due to a combination of elevation, distance from the storm center, and more favorable winds).  

[uncle W]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think the pattern will be quite explosive. I could see 30" in 30 days as being within the realm of possibility. Then, we'll see what happens afterward.

I hope it ends up like 1913-14 or 1925-26...

30" in 30 days in Central Park......I've been alive for the last eight since 1961...1961 is still the best as far as I'm concerned...2003 and 2006 just missed with just under 30" in 30 days...
02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0"
02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2"
12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4"
01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1"
01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2"
02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8"
12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2"
01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2"
01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6"

01/21-02/19, 2014.....42.1"

01/17-02/15, 2016.....31.5"

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I hope it ends up like 1913-14 or 1925-26...

30" in 30 days in Central Park......I've been alive for the last eight since 1961...1961 is still the best as far as I'm concerned...2003 and 2006 just missed with just under 30" in 30 days...
02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0"
02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2"
12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4"
01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1"
01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2"
02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8"
12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2"
01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2"
01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6"

01/21-02/19, 2014.....42.1"

01/17-02/15, 2016.....31.5"

I want to get what Baltimore got in February 2003 or February 2010................

 

We're due for something like that.

[RU848789]

Essentially every 18Z model is snowier for CNJ/NYC for tomorrow than it was at 12Z (except the Euro of course - damn model, lol).  Just looking at MBY in the Edison area, as an example over an average of about 7 global/regional model forecast accumulations went from about 0.2" to 0.7" with a couple of models now showing over 1".  May not sound like much, but 1/2" to 1" is way better than a whiff to a dusting and also gives hope that maybe we'll overperform even more, given trends in the actual storm being stronger to the north than it was modeled, along its path.  Crossing fingers.  

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Essentially every 18Z model is snowier for CNJ/NYC for tomorrow than it was at 12Z (except the Euro of course - damn model, lol).  Just looking at MBY in the Edison area, as an example over an average of about 7 global/regional model forecast accumulations went from about 0.2" to 0.7" with a couple of models now showing over 1".  May not sound like much, but 1/2" to 1" is way better than a whiff to a dusting and also gives hope that maybe we'll overperform even more, given trends in the actual storm being stronger to the north than it was modeled, along its path.  Crossing fingers.  

Last minute trends shift the polar love further and further away. Could definitely see a little snow. Really nice event for S NJ.

[uncle W]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I want to get what Baltimore got in February 2003 or February 2010................

 

We're due for something like that.

we did get 57" in I think 32 days from 12/26 to 1/27/2010-11

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

we did get 57" in I think 32 days from 12/26 to 1/27/2010-11

 

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

we did get 57" in I think 32 days from 12/26 to 1/27/2010-11

Our winters seem to be the best when they get going in late December.  I think 47-48 was like that too.

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Our winters seem to be the best when they get going in late December.  I think 47-48 was like that too.

1960 got the best start of all with a real old fashion blizzard on the 12th...then the January into February period...only negative was the early ending near the coast...2010-11 was similar...1947-48 did have another late February and early March period of snows and cold...

[TJW014]

Fingers crossed. No flurries flying around yet. Just need a tick off 20 or so miles north and east and I'll be very well pleased. 

 

[snowheavyattimes]

Between 1-18 and 1-26 TWC has at least some snow in my forecast on 7 of those 9 days. Of course I take it with a grain of (huge) salt, but it looks like there could be some fun times ahead.

[RU848789]

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Essentially every 18Z model is snowier for CNJ/NYC for tomorrow than it was at 12Z (except the Euro of course - damn model, lol).  Just looking at MBY in the Edison area, as an example over an average of about 7 global/regional model forecast accumulations went from about 0.2" to 0.7" with a couple of models now showing over 1".  May not sound like much, but 1/2" to 1" is way better than a whiff to a dusting and also gives hope that maybe we'll overperform even more, given trends in the actual storm being stronger to the north than it was modeled, along its path.  Crossing fingers.  

Mt. Holly responds to the models...(and even OKX has a little area of <1" for SI/Union/south shore of Brooklyn/Queens).

[MJO812]

The radar is brutal right now. The snow is so close to NYC but it's hitting a brick wall.

[Stormlover74]

44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The radar is brutal right now. The snow is so close to NYC but it's hitting a brick wall.

Only flurries being reported 50 miles south of nyc

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

The substantial snow for nyc doesn’t come until tomorrow night-mon morn from the coastal.