NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 well at least we get to watch it snowing at Wrigley Field Chicago https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/?cam=wrigleyfield_hd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Nam went slightly more north with the coastal. There is a slight chance of coming north like Forky stated but slim chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 EURO has ditched the 19th---21st storm down to 1" {from 15"}here and 4" {from 23"}in DC. Gives sub-zero temps. to both of us---but colder in DC! The EURO should stay outside in that Arctic cold it predicts and get it's act straight. Fifth time in a few weeks a 1-Run Snowstorm has shown up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, CIK62 said: EURO has ditched the 19th---21st storm down to 1" {from 15"}here and 4" {from 23"}in DC. Gives sub-zero temps. to both of us---but colder in DC! The EURO should stay outside in that Arctic cold it predicts and get it's act straight. Fifth time in a few weeks a 1-Run Snowstorm has shown up. Have you checked the other models? Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Have you checked the other models? Eps? Yes, there's lots of potential on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: MJO is favorable in 4 and 5 ??? No that's why models are showing somewhat of a relaxation after the 1/20 storm for a few days. Doesn't look warm though and the PNA looks to amplify shortly after like Isotherm said. Last week of Jan has tons of potential. The 1/20 could also work out for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Posted the results (verification) of long term guidance in the Dec 26-Jan 3 range: In nutshell, guidance was decent on dates of significant pcpn events and much colder trend, just too cold on 1/4 and 8 events. But now to the upcoming Sunday-Monday. You've probably noticed a recent cyclic trend north, that I doubt will waffle back south. 500mb is apparently losing the upper low less and less as it moves east from the central Plains and reinvigorating it as it crosses the mid Atlc coast Monday. I rarely see less than 16% pops on both models be wet in a large scale storm, inside of 4 periods (48 hrs -see NAM and GFS 12z MOS for JFK), The dry dew points are a problem, but I also think its becoming clearer that the confluence zone will be a bit further north, allowing the potent storm to dump in two or three episodes in NJ, even up here to near I-80 on LI. EPS especially is catching on (I think its correct about sending decent snow further N, especially Monday, even ensembling a closed 500mb low along the NJ coast). The GFS JFK MOS has its highest 6 hr pop Sunday night (16%). NAM from 12z and 18z is having trouble, probably figuring out a coherent 500MB pattern and associated surface response. So, we'll all be model watching. I dont think it's yet out of of the question to see .10 or greater qpf by 06z/15 all the way up to I-80. I'm not saying it will but its looking a little better now. For what its worth. All this EC model guidance probably was too late for the early afternoon NWS collaborative watch/warning/qpf/snow amount effort? or there may be other guidance that says no way to the EPS. All i know, its been big in MO and the Ohio Valley and I dont think it will wane nearly as much as even now modeled. I've attached an automated stats graphic for the prob of 2" or more of snow by Monday night. Note I-80 in the 40% portion of the band. Shall be interesting for a while longer, especially Monday morning. fwiw...its been 32F or lower in Wantage NJ since 830PM the 9th. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Great post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 46 minutes ago, wdrag said: Posted the results (verification) of long term guidance in the Dec 26-Jan 3 range: In nutshell, guidance was decent on dates of significant pcpn events and much colder trend, just too cold on 1/4 and 8 events. But now to the upcoming Sunday-Monday. You've probably noticed a recent cyclic trend north, that I doubt will waffle back south. 500mb is apparently losing the upper low less and less as it moves east from the central Plains and reinvigorating it as it crosses the mid Atlc coast Monday. I rarely see less than 16% pops on both models be wet in a large scale storm, inside of 4 periods (48 hrs -see NAM and GFS 12z MOS for JFK), The dry dew points are a problem, but I also think its becoming clearer that the confluence zone will be a bit further north, allowing the potent storm to dump in two or three episodes in NJ, even up here to near I-80 on LI. EPS especially is catching on (I think its correct about sending decent snow further N, especially Monday, even ensembling a closed 500mb low along the NJ coast). The GFS JFK MOS has its highest 6 hr pop Sunday night (16%). NAM from 12z and 18z is having trouble, probably figuring out a coherent 500MB pattern and associated surface response. So, we'll all be model watching. I dont think it's yet out of of the question to see .10 or greater qpf by 06z/15 all the way up to I-80. I'm not saying it will but its looking a little better now. For what its worth. All this EC model guidance probably was too late for the early afternoon NWS collaborative watch/warning/qpf/snow amount effort? or there may be other guidance that says no way to the EPS. All i know, its been big in MO and the Ohio Valley and I dont think it will wane nearly as much as even now modeled. I've attached an automated stats graphic for the prob of 2" or more of snow by Monday night. Note I-80 in the 40% portion of the band. Shall be interesting for a while longer, especially Monday morning. fwiw...its been 32F or lower in Wantage NJ since 830PM the 9th. MT. Holly says basically no snow in Central NJ NJZ012-130900- MIDDLESEX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK 330 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2019 TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. SUNDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Lets see how this evolves... All i see is all models trending ever so slightly north (have not checked the 18z/12 GFS) and the op GFS especially has a tendency to be too far south on these storms. i cant remember model performance on the Nov 15 snowstorm except NAM prob of frozen was not helpful in the I95 corridor. I do remember events from Dec 9-10 through now, and the GFS tendency in my estimation is to lose too much definition aloft and therefore, be too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Check out this RAP model shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Gfs is minor event next weekend, rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs is minor event next weekend, rain to snow and this is why you can't trust the models this far out Euro went from MECS to next to nothing too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and this is why you can't trust the models this far out Euro went from MECS to next to nothing too Who knows how much you can trust them 24 hours out. I’m still looking at tomorrow’s storm. The shift in the RAP from 15z to 21z was very interesting. Not sure how reliable it is at the end of its range but the shift north very noticeable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: No that's why models are showing somewhat of a relaxation after the 1/20 storm for a few days. Doesn't look warm though and the PNA looks to amplify shortly after like Isotherm said. Last week of Jan has tons of potential. The 1/20 could also work out for us. What models are showing a relaxation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Check out this RAP model shift. you have the link for that site ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and this is why you can't trust the models this far out Euro went from MECS to next to nothing too Agree. All we know is that there will be a storm but track is uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: you have the link for that site ? https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: you have the link for that site ? It’s NWS site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said: Who knows how much you can trust them 24 hours out. I’m still looking at tomorrow’s storm. The shift in the RAP from 15z to 21z was very interesting. Not sure how reliable it is at the end of its range but the shift north very noticeable. It’s hard to imagine guidance could be that off this close in but there does definitely appear to be enough exiting of the confluence that the system could end up more north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Check out this RAP model shift. Now that really is getting into 2/6/10 territory.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 hours ago, jfklganyc said: I was just thinking of the 12/03 event. It was fun...but never really panned out to all the hype of a 1-2 punch that was forecast. It was supposed to be a snowstorm/blizzard combo. We did well on the first day of the storm because we were just 5 miles north of the rain/snow line, but on the second day, the heaviest action shifted east we ended up with just over a foot total, but 8 inches was the total for the first day and 5 inches on the second day. Farmingdale got 20 inches total. Thought we'd have higher ratios with the colder air on the second day but it didn't snow hard here for round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: We did well on the first day of the storm because we were just 5 miles north of the rain/snow line, but on the second day, the heaviest action shifted east we ended up with just over a foot total, but 8 inches was the total for the first day and 5 inches on the second day. Farmingdale got 20 inches. I had around 8 each day but the 2nd half definitely underperformed, I do remember gettting a blizzard warning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I had around 8 each day but the 2nd half definitely underperformed, I do remember gettting a blizzard warning That was our earliest blizzard warning I think. Yes I was hoping to get like a foot on the second day. Looking back at pictures from that two day storm, the visibility seemed a lot lower on the first day with much larger flakes, while the second day had higher visibility and the snow flakes were much smaller. It actually looked like dust particles cascading down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I had around 8 each day but the 2nd half definitely underperformed, I do remember gettting a blizzard warning I had 8 inches one day and 6 the next day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Baltimore and Washington, DC are poised to pick up their biggest snowstorm since March 20-22, 2018 and possibly January 22-23, 2016. Washington, DC could receive 4"-8" snow and Baltimore 3"-6" snow by the time the storm departs on Sunday. Some locally higher amounts are likely in and around the Washington area. Atlantic City, Philadelphia and Harrisburg could see 2"-4". A coating remains possible from central New Jersey to perhaps even parts of New York City. The 18z RGEM shows potential for up to 0.5" in New York City, so there is some support for a coating in the City. Additional storms are likely over the following 1-2 weeks as winter begins to lock the region into a generally cold and snowy grip. The SOI was -5.84 today. It has been negative for 11 out of the last 13 days. The AO was -1.400. That is the 7th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.050. On January 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.060 (RMM). That amplitude was below the January 10-adjusted figure of 1.606. Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the baseline scenario remains the MJO's gradually moving into Phase 1 at perhaps a low amplitude or moving into low amplitude shortly afterward. Once that happens, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude. A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination. Today's Middle Atlantic snowstorm is occurring with just such a combination (preliminary PNA: +0.818). Following this weekend's storm, another storm or storms could impact the region during the January 19-21 period and again during the January 23-25 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall from either or both of these events. The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, 2nd lowest such figure since winter 1999-00 when no measurable snow had fallen through January 12). In fact, following the current storm, Washington, DC's snowfall could exceed the January normal figure. The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area is also increasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I had 8 inches one day and 6 the next day When was this? If it's the one I remember, it was about 14 inches, didn't snow in AC, and kinda wasn't expected to be that bad... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: When was this? If it's the one I remember, it was about 14 inches, didn't snow in AC, and kinda wasn't expected to be that bad... December 5-6, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The new GFS 12z was on crack. That would be biblical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, RDRY said: The new GFS 12z was on crack. That would be biblical. The 18z was still good but more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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