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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

If you check out other forums , they arent worried about the mjo. 

Ssw might trumph the mjo.

LOL.  People not being worried about something doesn't mean it's right or wrong...lots of busting this winter so far...been a tough forecast all around...anyone predict a snowless first half of met winter out there???

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Just now, Snow88 said:

If you check out other forums , they arent worried about the mjo. 

Ssw might trumph the mjo.

what regions are these posters from that aren't worried about it ? Even though some models show a MECS next weekend now - if they adjust to the 4 5 MJO then they probably will adjust west - so whoever gets a foot of snow out of this weekends system in the mid- atlantic might be dealing with flooding issues next weekend...

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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what regions are these posters from that aren't worried about it ? Even though some models show a MECS next weekend now - if they adjust to the 4 5 MJO then they probably will adjust west - so whoever gets a foot of snow out of this weekends system in the mid- atlantic might be dealing with flooding issues next weekend...

I'd tend to agree-we don't want a phase 5, but the Euro is going strongrt with it each run...

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34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what regions are these posters from that aren't worried about it ? Even though some models show a MECS next weekend now - if they adjust to the 4 5 MJO then they probably will adjust west - so whoever gets a foot of snow out of this weekends system in the mid- atlantic might be dealing with flooding issues next weekend...

Northeast

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Cmc develops a strong low along the front next weekend with a big snowstorm.

Gfs does the same but it's warmer ( colder than 6z and further south )

It then develops another low behind it which slims the coast.

It’s getting very hard now because of the first system ahead of it.  That could potentially help or hurt things depending what it does 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s getting very hard now because of the first system ahead of it.  That could potentially help or hurt things depending what it does 

Gfs is the only one with the 2 lows

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

You better hope this is wrong then....

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small(293).gif

Why are you worried? Earthlight and others told you that the the mjo doesn't really have an effect on the pattern when a ssw occurs.

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49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

nightmare of 2/5/10 relived

Not really, that storm delivered to well within CNJ. This one doesn't look to get past SNJ. There have been a number of storms over the years in the past that were SNJ and nothing here. Since this storm was never really a threat here, meh. On 2/6/10, I was teased with 3 inches. Now that kinda sucked, knowing 30 mins down the turnpike they had a foot or more. And more as you went south.

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54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.  People not being worried about something doesn't mean it's right or wrong...lots of busting this winter so far...been a tough forecast all around...anyone predict a snowless first half of met winter out there???

No, but if IIRC the weather service kinda had us in the milder zone, no?

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Too many people staring at RMM plots when we have big time potential in the not too distance future.

From my perspective, just seeing some storms getting together shows we have some potential to get hit with something. ( rain and ice storms don't count! ) Whether it's a snow or sleet event, or a mixed one with a nice thump, we'll see. But ya gotta have some systems that aren't all rain coming along; maybe we're starting to see that with the changing pattern. I'll leave the rest up to the experts here....

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