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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it may seem like a long shot, there is a way the MJO and -EPO could work for us around Jan 20th. Even a less amplified move into 4-5 could pump the WAR just enough to prevent suppression like this weekends event. So we would need either a less amplified solution or a two wave low pressure event. A less amplified event would slide underneath and not get suppressed. A two wave event would have the first low come through warmer and drag the cold front to our east. The second low would overrun the front that gets pushed to our south. But it would take a perfect thread the needle effect to get the job done. Just a little bit off and it wouldn’t work. The lead wave coming out too amped would be warm and suppress the second wave to our south. Or the second wave never forms. All we can say from a climatology standpoint is that snowfall prospects generally improve with El Niño’s after Jan 15th.

Chris, is this going to be a multiday storm?  From wunderground maps, they're showing rain starting Friday and into Saturday and then changing to snow during the day Saturday which will last through Monday morning?  That would ruin the chances for the eclipse, which is at totality from 11:41 pm Sunday night to 12:43 am Monday morning.

 

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40 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Which makes me nervous. Cutter and suppression come to mind. I would feel a lot more confident if this event was inside 5 days. 

it should make you nervous since nothing has worked out in 2 months - plus the MJO which has been driving this pattern has to change - its scheduled to go into 4 and or 5 for about a week starting later next week - a chance there might be a coast hugger or cutter next weekend - which is a mixed bag or rain...……...

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

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4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it should make you nervous since nothing has worked out in 2 months - plus the MJO which has been driving this pattern has to change - its scheduled to go into 4 and or 5 for about a week starting later next week - a chance there might be a coast hugger or cutter next weekend - which is a mixed bag or rain...……...

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

Weak amplitude if it does go into 4 or 5 which isn't a certainty.

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is no way to know from so far out in time if it wil be a two parter. All the solutions a few days ago were really amped up on the lead wave. Now the models are showing  out a wide variety of solutions. But it would take a thread the needle event to get the job done. Two part events can be very tricky with many moving parts that need to go right. 

Yes thats what I was thinking too which is why they mostly go wrong lol.

We haven't had many multiday events, I think December 2003 was the most notable one I can think of.  The last storm in January 2011 was multipart but not multiday.

 

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8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

People in DC/Balt/DelMarVa might not want to look at this.  And not a flake north of about 195.  Kind of like the 12Z GFS.  Although the CMC, FV3, NAM, RGEM, etc., still look pretty good down in those areas.  But I'd be a little nervous...

P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

My apologies.  I pasted the 6 hour precip panel from the 0Z UK for 1 pm to 7 pm Sunday, thinking it was the cumulative precip from 7 pm Friday to 7 pm Sunday.  Here's the actual cumulative precip for that 48 hour period (presumably all snow, except maybe the lower DelMarVa), which is still pretty good for DC/Balt/DelMarVa and even into far southern NJ and even into CNJ with the 1" line around 195 (and even maybe 1/2" at my house, lol).    

PA_000-048_0000.gif

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this pattern can’t handle a really amped up storm and stay cold near the coast. So we would need a weaker solution or one with 2 waves. Two wave solutions or anafrontal snows can be really tricky to rely on.

I've been thinking that all season because pretty much every storm including the one snow storm we did have was a hugger and eventually changed to rain.  We have had zero benchmark tracks, not this winter not even in the fall.

Three tracks- hugger, cutter, and suppressed/well offshore track

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the Euro verifies that MJO  push into 4-5, then it will be a first for the month of January. The MJO has never gone into 4-5 so soon after such an amplfied move through phase 8 in January. Records go back to the mid 70’s. 

40748FA1-9756-4B81-8C89-B843F16B9351.gif.46023e4086eb9e0fa8b349e2ce6aceaa.gif

 

What do you think that would mean for our weather if it were to verify?

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes thats what I was thinking too which is why they mostly go wrong lol.

We haven't had many multiday events, I think December 2003 was the most notable one I can think of.  The last storm in January 2011 was multipart but not multiday.

 

I was just thinking of the 12/03 event.

It was fun...but never really panned out to all the hype of a 1-2 punch that was forecast.

It was supposed to be a snowstorm/blizzard combo. 

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the MJO can maintain good enough amplitude through 4-5, then maybe we get another chance at 7-1 near the start of February. But we often have to wait until the phases verify to see how the models actually correct on the 500 mb pattern. Sometimes it takes the models a while to catch up with the actual MJO. It can lead to very wide day 11-15 model swings. 

A strong phase 5 is warm isn't it?   I would think we see models back off on the cold next week if (big if) that's correct....

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