gravitylover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I wouldn't say our calendar is entirely artificial, we base it off the seasons and the sun. the solstices and equinox happen on nearly the same dates every year, it's why we get repeating patterns around the same dates and our big storms are clustered around certain "hot spots." I don't have the patience or knowledge, maybe @uncle W does, to run some scenarios based on the Hebrew calendar which is the longest running lunar calendar in use today. I'd be curious to see the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The winter that keeps fooling everyone - its already a bust since met winter is just about 50 % over with above normal temps and below normal snow - January will be above normal if MJO spends a week in 4 or 5 - I wouldn't count on February YET this point...………..BUT all I just mentioned is just pure speculation at this point very frustrating and difficult to predict year-every indication was that this would be a good to possibly blockbuster winter (good is still possible) going into the season....maybe we can get a HECS to save it....if there's no snow this weekend, NYC will have the first year since 1870-71 with zero snow for met winter's 1st half....(not much better up here-couple of coatings on the grass) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the MJO going back toward phase 5 pumps the WAR just enough ahead of the Jan 20th storm. You`re not in p5 in 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Careful with the RIMM plots they have been awful over the last few weeks , secondly a very muted p of the MJO may be fighting the effects of a S/W with the vortex moving SE out of HB at the time. The EPS isn`t a cutter , it take a center to the OHV and redevelops it off the Delmarva , the GEFS mean if off to your east and is cold. It is 9 days away and I would seriously wait a few days before anyone jumps. The winter has sckkkd so missing another one would hurt I get it , but patience with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Careful with the RIMM plots they have been awful over the last few weeks , secondly a very muted p of the MJO may be fighting the effects of a S/W with the vortex moving SE out of HB at the time. The EPS isn`t a cutter , it take a center to the OHV and redevelops it off the Delmarva , the GEFS mean if off to your east and is cold. It is 9 days away and I would seriously wait a few days before anyone jumps. The winter has sckkkd so missing another one would hurt I get it , but patience with this one. I think "patience" has been the most used word in this forum the last month or so - "bust" might become the second 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: I think "patience" has been the most used word in this forum the last month or so - "bust" might become the second A completely toasted December will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'd love to see a series of clippers come and give us 1-3 each time-I'd be happy with that-been a long time since we've seen a clipper pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Always a chance that these are wrong , but you have to use the ensembles 9 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only the GFS RIMM plots have been awful as the Euro has done much better. Remember the GFS going off the charts around Christmas.? Even the GFS VP charts are showing forcing over the IO and Maritime Continent going forward. That 5SD was silly. We may head across towards 5 , but if you look at the RIMM plots , you are closer to a sub 1 SD p4 and by that with time the lag out of the null phase which may be allowing other drivers to be in charge at d9. We can always cut , and although I posted the redevelopment of the EPS , there is a primary that goes into the OHV 1st . If that gets N of 40 then the coast is toast. At 9 days I need to see if the - EPO is real in front of it before I make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: The whole winter pattern so far has been really MJO driven. So small changes in the day 6-10 forecast have made post day 10 guidance even more unreliable than usual. The MJO becoming more active in recent years has added a new wild card to our winter forecasts. This has done very well The MJO has been the driver but getting stuck in p5 for 2 weeks pre strat warm is a lot different than a muted 4- 5 with a vortex over H/B and rolling SE. I saw the east risk last week for this weekends system and that was right ,but I do see the W risk here with the WAR sitting out there. I just want to get closer , I think there`s a lot of good stuff in front of us tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think "patience" has been the most used word in this forum the last month or so - "bust" might become the second This winter has been easy to swallow given it hasn't even started yet. If it busts then it busts. We learn from it and move on, what else can you do. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You would be in the Null p by day 9 if this is correct , but keep in mind you had a Strat Warm. It is going to be a player in the pattern , this is not December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 59 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think "patience" has been the most used word in this forum the last month or so - "bust" might become the second A big part of the problem was the ridiculous analogs being peddled around back in September, October and November. Some folks were calling for wall to wall winter from November through March and it backfired horribly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A big part of the problem was the ridiculous analogs being peddled around back in September, October and November. Some folks were calling for wall to wall winter from November through March and it backfired horribly Most had a warm Dec. Jan / Feb/ 1st half of March winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This winter has been easy to swallow given it hasn't even started yet. If it busts then it busts. We learn from it and move on, what else can you do. 20 years ago I would have been really upset, but there's more important things in life...can't do anything about the weather-maybe this year produces down the road, maybe it doesn't. Life goes on... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This winter has been easy to swallow given it hasn't even started yet. If it busts then it busts. We learn from it and move on, what else can you do. No way we could have predicted a +SOI in December and early Jan and then a raging Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A big part of the problem was the ridiculous analogs being peddled around back in September, October and November. Some folks were calling for wall to wall winter from November through March and it backfired horribly Social media is part of the problem too-people post ridiculous maps that have no chance of verifying and the hype machine in general gets worse every year. Years like 93-94, 95-96, 14-15 are thrown out way too often as analogs... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: No way we could have predicted a +SOI in December and early Jan and then a raging Pacific. Looking back, the clues were there with the big Sep to Oct SOI reversal. 2018 8.9 -6.0 10.5 4.5 2.1 -5.5 1.6 -6.9 -10.0 3.0 -0.1 9.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looking back, the clues were there with the big Sep to Oct SOI reversal. 2018 8.9 -6.0 10.5 4.5 2.1 -5.5 1.6 -6.9 -10.0 3.0 -0.1 9.3 Would the humid/high dewpoint summer have given us any clues also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 20 years ago I would have been really upset, but there's more important things in life...can't do anything about the weather-maybe this year produces down the road, maybe it doesn't. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Para GFS has been the best run for my location in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Very cold today, it’s been nearly a year (361 days) since I had a high in the 20’s, it hasn’t happened since January 15th (2018). Today looks borderline, and may hit at least 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Cfa said: Very cold today, it’s been nearly a year (361 days) since I had a high in the 20’s, it hasn’t happened since January 15th (2018). Today looks borderline, and may hit at least 30. mud has frozen here after a few days of 35 or less for highs...right now 29 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Parade of storms with cold nearby on the Gfs. Weeklies show a pattern similiar. Fun times ahead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 20 years ago I would have been really upset, but there's more important things in life...can't do anything about the weather-maybe this year produces down the road, maybe it doesn't. Life goes on... No reason to get upset. After all, it’s only frozen water falling from the sky. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: No reason to get upset. After all, it’s only frozen water falling from the sky. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: mud has frozen here after a few days of 35 or less for highs...right now 29 here... This will still be a less impressive cool down for NYC than the one in November. The November coldest minimum was 15 and the low max was 28 degrees. NYC is already 27 degrees without any lows near 15 for the remainder of this cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: This will still be a less impressive cool down for NYC than the one in November. The November coldest minimum was 15 and the low max was 28 degrees. NYC is already 27 degrees without any lows near 15 for the remainder of this cool down. guessing that might have to do with the lack of snowcover over parts of the continent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Gfs is very stormy with cold nearby on the mid to long range. Gefs has a coastal signal for next weekend. Yes the op runs show rain right now but it's over 200 hours out and we know that isn't going to happen as it looks. Weeklies showed a cold and stormy pattern last night and the operational models are starting to show it. Buckle up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs is very stormy with cold nearby on the mid to long range. Gefs has a coastal signal for next weekend. Yes the op runs show rain right now but it's over 200 hours out and we know that isn't going to happen as it looks. Weeklies showed a cold and stormy pattern last night and the operational models are starting to show it. Buckle up heard that a few weeks ago. Until things get within the 4-5 day range, I'd be cautious.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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