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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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8 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

We need a big cutter to flip this pattern and get some higher heights in the NAO region. Looks like we’ll get that next weekend with a big rainstorm. I think between 1/25-2/1 we could see a somewhat more favorable pattern. Until then no snow in NYC aside of a flurry or shower. 

Now i know it's coming

 

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's how I roll. Don't know where to get weeklies and models and all that crap. I just go by my experience here in Sussex county.  We usually always do good.  And I'm confident we'll get close to our average snowfall. Around 55"

:lol:

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9 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The pattern flip started today  ( the 10th has been opined on in here and the source region has changed , so that looks like it will work). As I said last week the risk for this weekends system was East of us not West.

I agree with the above , that`s not cutting. The 2 dates I posted in here 7 days ago were the 13th and 20th - the 13th heads off to our S and the confluence and placement of the TPV in Canada wins out.

But that was always an option. 

We aren`t getting a big cutter and that TPV is on the move as - 50 air is showing up in E Canada in the L/R. 

We are heading into a very cold period ( colder the deeper we go ) . But a " pattern change " doesn`t mean it has to snow. BN`s have now returning and the 19 - 23 period is the next favorable period for a system in the area.

But I would caution that not every good pattern produces snow , cold and dry is always an option , however one thing is evident warm and wet are over for the time being. 

-50C 850s? Where? Never seen that before....usually the coldest the PV gets is like -40C.

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3 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's how I roll. Don't know where to get weeklies and models and all that crap. I just go by my experience here in Sussex county.  We usually always do good.  And I'm confident we'll get close to our average snowfall. Around 55"

60% of the time, we do good all the time.

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how long this snowy transition period lasts.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather—including both cold spells and heavy snows—became more frequent in the eastern United States.

 

 

I was wondering about that too.  We've discussed how we've been getting more snow even with 40 degree average wintertime temperatures, so it may be a while.  What will probably happened is that our snow season will become confined to January and February after a few decades so we'll have less snowstorms but the ones we do get will be big.  Snowcover wont be as durable though because of the frequent thaws.

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15 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

We need a met to chime in (bluewave/Neg AO/Goose). I do not think a week or 2 difference in Nov. Timing makes that much of a difference and March is still a snowfall month like last year which was epic.

What would be the scientific explanation? 

Besides 1989 and 2011 how many other cases saw snow before the 15th of November and were below average snowfall winters?

I have my own hypothesis.  I know Chris thinks that November snows cause a longer lag time for the weather to recover to produce another 6" event (and we're confining ourselves to discussions of big early season events not the little ones), but I thought of something in addition to that but would attack the question in a different way.

December snowstorms are more highly correlated to snowy winters than pre-December snowstorms.

Why? Because there is a feedback that sets in during December where snowcover can actually keep a snowy pattern going.  We've seen this many times.  It's cold enough in December for snowcover to stick around and influence how cold and snowy it will be after that.  You dont get that pre-December because the snow usually melts within a few days and the pattern recovers.  And since it usually takes several weeks for the pattern to recover for another big event, bingo, no big December snowstorm and you're behind the 8 ball.

The big 95-96 winter had much more to do with the MECS we had in December than the minor-moderate November event.  The December MECS kicked off a sustained cold pattern for a few weeks that concluded with the HECS in January.  The nuisance November event was gone within a few days and if you remember we warmed up a lot after that.  The recovery time happened to be shorter that year which allowed us to get the big event in December too and thats what really kicked off that snow season.

So the short answer is, November snowfall is okay as long as it doesn't interfere with December snowfall.

 

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15 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The pattern flip started today  ( the 10th has been opined on in here and the source region has changed , so that looks like it will work). As I said last week the risk for this weekends system was East of us not West.

I agree with the above , that`s not cutting. The 2 dates I posted in here 7 days ago were the 13th and 20th - the 13th heads off to our S and the confluence and placement of the TPV in Canada wins out.

But that was always an option. 

We aren`t getting a big cutter and that TPV is on the move as - 50 air is showing up in E Canada in the L/R. 

We are heading into a very cold period ( colder the deeper we go ) . But a " pattern change " doesn`t mean it has to snow. BN`s have now returning and the 19 - 23 period is the next favorable period for a system in the area.

But I would caution that not every good pattern produces snow , cold and dry is always an option , however one thing is evident warm and wet are over for the time being. 

Thats right Paul, the pattern change has already happened.  Winters can only objectively be ranked by cold, not snow, since snow has a luck factor built in.  The pattern definitely changed once our highs fell into the 30s.  Even if it just stays cold and dry, this is a big pattern change.

 

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15 hours ago, gravitylover said:

It's tough to formulate a scientific reason when using a human construct like the calendar. It might be different if it was a lunar calendar but I expect not too much. 

I wouldn't say our calendar is entirely artificial, we base it off the seasons and the sun. the solstices and equinox happen on nearly the same dates every year, it's why we get repeating patterns around the same dates and our big storms are clustered around certain "hot spots."

 

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15 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There are more complicated theories that cold too early in November or December for a long period causes atmospheric impacts with heat distribution to the poles/tropics etc.  that have a tendency to cause the back half of the winter to be milder.  We do sometimes see the same thing occur in the summer.  Years where we’ve gotten too warm too early for several weeks in late April or mid May sometimes the core of the summer is colder.  I think maybe 1987 was an example of this but I might have the wrong year 

With summer it also matters how dry it is.  We had a big heatwave in April 2002 and that summer was really hot because it was so dry.

 

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10 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I've been doing chemical eng'g science, including tons of statistical analyses for 35+ years.  I can assure you that the biggest reason low snow Decembers lead to low snow winters is because of low snow Decembers.  I'm being a little tongue in cheek here.  The point is, if you start off 4-5" behind where climo (4.8" normally in Dec, which is almost 20% of the 25" seasonal avg) would normally put you at the end of Dec and you assume that, on average the rest of winter is average, then all of those winters would be 4-5" behind climo for the whole winter.  People try way too hard to find correlations and causations that aren't there or that are far more complex than needed.  Occam's Razor usually applies.  

its also because of what I talked about in my post about Decembers, December gives you an opportunity for more extended cold and there is albedo feedback with snowy Decembers that often leads to more snow and cold after that- see 1995-96

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Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

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1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.

We don't even know if there will be a big cutter next weekend 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope its sojourn through Phase 5 is a brief one this time and not some sort of feedback loop lol.

The latest update doesn't even take it into phase 5. It spends a few days at phase 6 (low amplitude) as it circles towards 7/8.

Personally I don't think it'll leave the COD until it circles back into 8/1 like in 2015.

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The latest update doesn't even take it into phase 5. It spends a few days at phase 6 (low amplitude) as it circles towards 7/8.

Personally I don't think it'll leave the COD until it circles back into 8/1 like in 2015.

this still seems to be a MJO driven pattern developing if the MJO races through the COD and into 4 or 5 the storm close to the 20th cuts - if it stays in the COD and begins to circle it is less of an influence and last nights Canadian run might be closer to verifying - sliding just south of here with more frozen precip...……….

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

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Next 8 days are averaging 31degs., or 1deg. BN.    Probably a month since I could say BN on the next 8 days.

24.4* here at 6am.    Reached 22.4* by 8:30am.

EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days.    GEFS is 35% of at least 7" of Snow by the 27th.    Actually there is enough liquid equivalent for 50" of Snow by this time, under the right conditions.

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17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

cutter city if that verifies....

The winter that keeps fooling everyone - its already a bust since met winter is just about 50 % over with above normal temps and below normal snow - January will be above normal if MJO spends a week in 4 or 5 - I wouldn't count on February YET this point...………..BUT all I just mentioned is just pure speculation at this point

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