NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The 18z NAM is well South now with the overrunning precip for Saturday night. Cutoff near the AC Expressway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z NAM is well South now with the overrunning precip for Saturday night. Cutoff near the AC Expressway. Yeah it’s nothing like the Euro at all. It looks like it’s gonna go insane with the low coming out of the TN Valley. No way to know where it goes because the speed it ejects it out at would mean everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, TriPol said: I don't think WSWs will need to be posted as we've all been warned that this wouldn't amount to much with the PAC Jet raging as it is. For an El Nino year, our weather pattern isn't acting very El Nino-like. I think you might not know these boards very well then. Enough model runs have showed at least 4-6" (or more at times) for much of our area (several CMC, GFS-FV3, and at least one Euro run) and that's all it takes to get people wound up, especially when they've been snow-starved since mid-Nov. Sure lots of folks realize that the 2010s are close to aberrant with regard to snowfall, especially compared to the 80s and most of the 90s, but many seem to just be used to big snows. Cracks me up to see posters saying the coming pattern change will deliver a few KU events. Those used to be every 10 years, lol and presumably we'll move back to less snow at some point. I'll be happy with 1-2", which is what I said a few days ago, but yeah, I'm still hoping for more... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z NAM is well South now with the overrunning precip for Saturday night. Cutoff near the AC Expressway. No surprise-very dry airmass to the north and confluence, I'd be surprised to see a flurry anywhere NYC and north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No surprise-very dry airmass to the north and confluence, I'd be surprised to see a flurry anywhere NYC and north.... But the Euro - a major model not affected by the shutdown is showing 2 -4 inches - I wouldn't trust any American model that is not being maintained properly (especially as the shutdown drags on) till the shutdown is over...…...plus discounting the Euro is dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: But the Euro - a major model not affected by the shutdown is showing 2 -4 inches - I wouldn't trust any American model that is not being maintained properly (especially as the shutdown drags on) till the shutdown is over...…...plus discounting the Euro is dangerous Fair point there. But that high/confluence definitely mean business-need to see that trend weaker especially for northern posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: But the Euro - a major model not affected by the shutdown is showing 2 -4 inches - I wouldn't trust any American model that is not being maintained properly (especially as the shutdown drags on) till the shutdown is over...…...plus discounting the Euro is dangerous 4 is about what I get when progged for 12, so I don't expect much LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 icon and Gfs are north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 48 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I think you might not know these boards very well then. Enough model runs have showed at least 4-6" (or more at times) for much of our area (several CMC, GFS-FV3, and at least one Euro run) and that's all it takes to get people wound up, especially when they've been snow-starved since mid-Nov. Sure lots of folks realize that the 2010s are close to aberrant with regard to snowfall, especially compared to the 80s and most of the 90s, but many seem to just be used to big snows. Cracks me up to see posters saying the coming pattern change will deliver a few KU events. Those used to be every 10 years, lol and presumably we'll move back to less snow at some point. I'll be happy with 1-2", which is what I said a few days ago, but yeah, I'm still hoping for more... KU's used to be pretty rare, looking back in this area, 78, then 83, then 96...then 2003, after that they picked up, one theory is due to warmer ocean temps and climate change. But nobody's snowing a lot this year. I don't think too many people had much invested in this event. Still hoping for the elusive pattern flip, it's as clear as day, any time now, just ten more days....I don't think a lot of people remember winters like this one. We used to have several years in a row like this. 8-10 was a major event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: KU's used to be pretty rare, looking back in this area, 78, then 83, then 96...then 2003, after that they picked up, one theory is due to warmer ocean temps and climate change. But nobody's snowing a lot this year. I don't think too many people had much invested in this event. Still hoping for the elusive pattern flip, it's as clear as day, any time now, just ten more days....I don't think a lot of people remember winters like this one. We used to have several years in a row like this. 8-10 was a major event. the 90's outside of 93-94 and 95-96 were largely a pile of garbage. a 6 inch storm was the big event most years...(if that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: KU's used to be pretty rare, looking back in this area, 78, then 83, then 96...then 2003, after that they picked up, one theory is due to warmer ocean temps and climate change. But nobody's snowing a lot this year. I don't think too many people had much invested in this event. Still hoping for the elusive pattern flip, it's as clear as day, any time now, just ten more days....I don't think a lot of people remember winters like this one. We used to have several years in a row like this. 8-10 was a major event. It’s likely due to the warm AMO. I would expect over the next 20-25 years we will see less big events 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: the 90's outside of 93-94 and 95-96 were largely a pile of garbage. a 6 inch storm was the big event most years...(if that) The 80's were just as forgettable. April 82, Feb 83, Jan 87, single events.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s likely due to the warm AMO. I would expect over the next 20-25 years we will see less big events At 56, I'm not much concerned with big snows for the next 20-25 years:). There's a few other things on my mind....I expect I will retire someplace where such huge snowstorms don't happen often, SEPA maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: KU's used to be pretty rare, looking back in this area, 78, then 83, then 96...then 2003, after that they picked up, one theory is due to warmer ocean temps and climate change. But nobody's snowing a lot this year. I don't think too many people had much invested in this event. Still hoping for the elusive pattern flip, it's as clear as day, any time now, just ten more days....I don't think a lot of people remember winters like this one. We used to have several years in a row like this. 8-10 was a major event. This is what I was referring to when I mentioned being surrounded by warm water. In the snow starved 1970’s and 1980’s, the ocean was repeatedly cited as one of the factors for a paucity of snow in this area. 8-10 inches was unheard of. I sound like a curmudgeon. I remember colder, albeit, limited snow in these parts for winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: At 56, I'm not much concerned with big snows for the next 20-25 years:). There's a few other things on my mind....I expect I will retire someplace where such huge snowstorms don't happen often, SEPA maybe. If I never see another blizzard I wouldn’t mind crazy to believe that but it’s true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Lower heating bills incoming vs this time last year. Greatest 1st week of January temperature increase in a year for NYC. 2019-01-07 40.1 0 2018-01-07 16.4 0 2017-01-07 35.6 0 2016-01-07 32.9 0 2015-01-07 32.7 0 2014-01-07 24.0 0 2013-01-07 34.3 0 2012-01-07 37.6 0 2011-01-07 35.6 0 2010-01-07 27.8 0 2009-01-07 32.2 0 2008-01-07 35.1 0 2007-01-07 51.4 0 2006-01-07 37.2 0 2005-01-07 44.6 0 2004-01-07 39.1 0 2003-01-07 33.6 0 2002-01-07 32.8 0 2001-01-07 29.1 0 2000-01-07 45.6 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: If I never see another blizzard I wouldn’t mind crazy to believe that but it’s true I'd like to see 1888 redux. If I could get that I'd be all set.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd like to see 1888 redux. If I could get that I'd be all set.. Excellent point! The way the winters have been around here that’s pretty much all we haven’t seen yet. I was always so jealous of those who lived “north and west” of NYC, we on LI would get rain while they cashed in. Now lots of snow is normal. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s likely due to the warm AMO. I would expect over the next 20-25 years we will see less big events Good point. We have been slowly going into a long term -AMO cycle for the last couple of years. Once we get into the negative flip, I also expect more +NAO and less KU events overall. Research has shown -AMO periods (late 1970’s-early 1990’s) favor +NAO and a drop in the number of KU storms. This was especially true in the 1980’s during our last long term -AMO cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good point. We have been slowly going into a long term -AMO cycle for the last couple of years. Once we get into the negative flip, I also expect more +NAO and less KU events overall. Research has shown -AMO periods (late 1970’s-early 1990’s) favor +NAO and a drop in the number of KU storms. This was especially true in the 1980’s during our last long term -AMO cycle Something to look forward too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Was in NYC today very strong wind tunnel effect. Winds were blowing people almost to the ground had to be at least 50mph. Otherwise on my way home some light snow from the squalls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Colder air is pushing into the region. Ahead of a possible late weekend snowfall, parts of the area could see their coldest temperatures since November 23. The SOI was -2.40 today. It has now been negative for 9 out of the last 10 days, including 3 days where it was at or below -10.00. In contrast, it was positive for 28 out of 31 days, including +10.00 or above on 14 days during December, but no days at or below -10.00. The AO was -0.969. This is the fourth consecutive day the AO was negative. On January 8, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 2.334 (RMM). That amplitude was somewhat lower than the January 7-adjusted figure of 2.414. The MJO's progression now appears to be slowing as it moves through Phase 8. Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast is beginning to come into better focus on the guidance. Both the GEFS and EPS forecast the MJO to move to low amplitude values through Phase 8. For now, with the MJO only slowly losing amplitude, the baseline scenario remains the MJO's gradually moving through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude. It would then move into Phase 1 and probably into a low amplitude at some point. As that happens, the AO could have some positive fluctuations before it returns to mainly negative values. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or perhaps significant (6" or more) snowfall is continuing to increase in an area running across southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania for the January 13-15 period. North of there, lighter snow appears likely. Baltimore and Washington, DC could have their biggest snowfall so far this season. Based on the forecast teleconnections, the January 10-24 period will see an above to much above average statistical probability of measurable snow in the region, including New York City. The probability of a moderate snowstorm during the MJO's Phase 8 and a PNA+/AO- combination is approximately twice as high as climatology. A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination is likely after mid-month. Some of the guidance has begun to suggest the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's and 69% of Philadelphia's 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination. Last winter, the January 3-5 snowstorm that brought 4.1" snow to Philadelphia and 9.8" to New York City featured just such a combination of teleconnections. The potential for above normal monthly snowfall is on the table for such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Best that can be said about the 18Z GFS is that it is 3X better than the 12Z. Yeah, 0.03" vs. 0.01" liquid equivalent. The whole run seeks to waste 4" liquid equivalent in 16 days, leaving us just 0.5" of snow. Temperatures are blah and the' snow/low temperature benchmarks of Nov. look safe so far. Next we will hear Santa Claus has Alzheimer's and will not remember to drag some snow here on his sleds till March 25. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: But the Euro - a major model not affected by the shutdown is showing 2 -4 inches - I wouldn't trust any American model that is not being maintained properly (especially as the shutdown drags on) till the shutdown is over...…...plus discounting the Euro is dangerous Interesting you bring this up, I really had not thought of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 hours ago, Brian5671 said: The cold January temp forecasts are in trouble....might finish the month at or above average.... I went +2 in the temp contest 11 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The ICON looks oddly flat to me from 60-84. I think we may get hit by that intital push of snow and the second wave may end up being a brutal miss almost everywhere north of VA. There is potential here for DCA to get missed by both waves based on some things the last two model cycles In my experience looking at the ICON, it should never be used...like ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 new nam has almost nothing anywhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: new nam has almost nothing anywhere.... The NAM is on its way to producing a big low offshore at 84 but it would probably track too far to the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 CMC has 1-3 inches for NYC with a lot more towards SNJ for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC has 1-3 inches for NYC with a lot more towards SNJ for this weekend I'd stick with the euro until the meso models come into range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC has 1-3 inches for NYC with a lot more towards SNJ for this weekend Both the GFS and CMC now look like the Euro as far as having the overrunning up this way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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