TriPol Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: 12Z suite not so good so far. GFS gives NYC nada with the 1" line from about Philly to Toms River. The CMC has the 1" line from about Trenton to Belmar with NYC getting a dusting. But the fabulous GFS-FV3, which may be our only hope, still has the 2.5" line (0.25" LE) along 78 into NYC and has most of NJ south of there in the 2.5-5.0" swath with the 5" line (0.50" LE) running from maybe Wilmington to LBI. If the Euro/UK don't "save" us, WSWs (Weenie Suicide Watches) may need to be issued for Phily to NYC, including most of NJ. I don't think WSWs will need to be posted as we've all been warned that this wouldn't amount to much with the PAC Jet raging as it is. For an El Nino year, our weather pattern isn't acting very El Nino-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: I don't think WSWs will need to be posted as we've all been warned that this wouldn't amount to much with the PAC Jet raging as it is. For an El Nino year, our weather pattern isn't acting very El Nino-like. More like a Nina with the cold start and then warmth taking over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 34 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I really hope this pattern change comes. It has been a pretty dreary winter so far. Even people that hate snow are saying they want snow instead of rain. It has been a truly incredible pattern though when you think about it. Could you imagine if we had a summer where we had a week of 80 in May, and then nothing but the 50s and 60s until the end of July with rain every other day? Pretty incredible when you think about it like that! I see what you're saying, but that's a little bit extreme of an example. 50's in July would be roughly 30 degrees below normal. 50's in January would be about 20 degrees above normal. Plus, I think we've become accustomed to warmer winters the last few years that feature transient cold shots and monster snow storms (Jan. 16, Mar. 18, etc.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The Euro didn't trend north. There is more overrunning on this run. Euro is 2-4 for nyc south with ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Euro didn't trend north. There is more overrunning on this run. Euro is 2-4 for nyc south with ratios ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sometimes a year isn't meant to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Euro didn't trend north. There is more overrunning on this run. Euro is 2-4 for nyc south with ratios This has always been an overunning event for us. The main precip Sheild will miss well to the south. Should at least gives us a wintery feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Euro didn't trend north. There is more overrunning on this run. Euro is 2-4 for nyc south with ratios Yea exactly. It actually didn’t trend north at all. In fact, the main heavier precipitation shield down in the DC area moved south this run from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, North and West said: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sometimes a year isn't meant to be. give the hype about this being a banner year for snow and cold, the disappointment is easy to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: give the hype about this being a banner year for snow and cold, the disappointment is easy to see... Sure, though I'm (hoping) that my yard is not a muddied mess by March, along with the baseball fields in April, I'm anticipating that won't be the case though, whether it's from snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: give the hype about this being a banner year for snow and cold, the disappointment is easy to see... The echo chamber... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Euro didn't trend north. There is more overrunning on this run. Euro is 2-4 for nyc south with ratios Yeah the only other 12Z model that really resembled the Euro on the overrunning was the NAM. Everything else wants to just destroy the overrunning stuff or have it way more south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: give the hype about this being a banner year for snow and cold, the disappointment is easy to see... Still alot of winter to go 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah the only other 12Z model that really resembled the Euro on the overrunning was the NAM. Everything else wants to just destroy the overrunning stuff or have it way more south I don't mind a EURO / NAM combo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, North and West said: Sure, though I'm (hoping) that my yard is not a muddied mess by March, along with the baseball fields in April, I'm anticipating that won't be the case though, whether it's from snow or rain. Nothing worse than last year-took the ball fields here til May to really dry out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: I don't mind a EURO / NAM combo... It’s a bit late still in the Euro range to totally trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Still alot of winter to go Calling winter in the beginning of January is a joke... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Calling winter in the beginning of January is a joke... Not calling it, we can still have a good 2nd half, but it will take some big #'s to get snowfall into the great range (let's say 40 inches or better) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The 12z GFS was very stormy from 240 on, but this threat is the only one in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Nothing worse than last year-took the ball fields here til May to really dry out... Yup. My kids just began some weekend indoor clinics, and they're aching to get outside. Last spring was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The only time this decade NYC didn’t clear 20” after January 10th was 2012. NYC snowfall after Jan 10th 2018-04-30 23.4 0 2017-04-30 20.7 0 2016-04-30 32.8 0 2015-04-30 46.6 0 2014-04-30 42.4 0 2013-04-30 21.0 0 2012-04-30 4.5 0 2011-04-30 40.1 0 2010-04-30 38.2 0 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 If you account for the typical last minute North trend with these systems I wouldn't completely rule out a few hours of some light to moderate overrunning snows on Saturday night, but the majority of the snow should pass South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: If you account for the typical last minute North trend with these systems I wouldn't completely rule out a few hours of some light to moderate overrunning snows on Saturday night, but the majority of the snow should pass South and East. The setup at 700 looks lousy to me for solid overrunning. Then again with that sort of high maybe we just have a massive area of light snow and someone gets lucky if we have some sort of frontogenesis feature form. The EPS does seem like it agrees on the overrunning so maybe other models moves towards the Euro on having it more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not calling it, we can still have a good 2nd half, but it will take some big #'s to get snowfall into the great range (let's say 40 inches or better) Ok, that’s reasonable. Trust me no one is more frustrated then me right now. Snow for me is big big money. I don’t think this winter will be a clunker. The 6” November storm was already better then 01/02 11/12. We have a light snow event on the way this weekend. I think feb produces the goods. But yes an A+ is out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ok, that’s reasonable. Trust me no one is more frustrated then me right now. Snow for me is big big money. I don’t think this winter will be a clunker. The 6” November storm was already better then 01/02 11/12. We have a light snow event on the way this weekend. I think feb produces the goods. But yes an A+ is out of the question I think that sometimes people forget how many other things have to “break right” in order for us to get snow on Long Island. We are surrounded by relatively warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I think that sometimes people forget how many other things have to “break right” in order for us to get snow on Long Island. We are surrounded by relatively warm water. At Upton/BNL, seems pretty snowy historically for a place 90 miles out into the water. Since Y2K rather more Boston-like it seems. I like our odds for things to break right pretty much every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not calling it, we can still have a good 2nd half, but it will take some big #'s to get snowfall into the great range (let's say 40 inches or better) You'll take your 20 and be happy with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Made it to 48 today, and with sun. I’m grateful for all of these hat-less winter days, I haven’t worn one in about a month. Slowly beginning to notice the later sunsets as well, nearly 20 minutes later than early Dec. It’s about time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: You'll take your 20 and be happy with it as long as we have a decent spring, I'll be happy with anything... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: Made it to 48 today, and with sun. I’m grateful for all of these hat-less winter days, I haven’t worn one in about a month. Slowly beginning to notice the later sunsets as well, nearly 20 minutes later than early Dec. It’s about time. Gone from 4:25pm to 4:42 here. Mornings still stalled with 7:18 sunrise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Gone from 4:25pm to 4:42 here. Mornings still stalled with 7:18 sunrise... 4:25 to 4:43 here, gaining more than a minute per day from here on out, in 10 days it’ll be +2 minutes per day, +3 minutes in early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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