Brasiluvsnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have been laying low since I have a broken collar bone from ice boarding but I think we are solid for a light snow event. There is nothing screaming big storm but we have seen allot more moisture in past storms then modeled. I like a general 2-3” across the area. Anything is better then nothing at this point. Feel better Freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z eps is slightly more west It shows 2 -3 inches for the NYC and surrounding areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Decent line incoming. Looks to hold up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Decent line incoming. Looks to hold up. A few lightning flashes too to the northwest as well as Southwest too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 0z NAM is very amped. Low over Fort Smith and snow up to Milwaukee at 84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 0z NAM is very amped. Low over Fort Smith and snow up to Milwaukee at 84. always a good sign! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: A few lightning flashes too to the northwest as well as Southwest too. Saw a flash outside and did a double take. Heavy rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Well if it's not gonna snow may as well have thunder and lightning 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just had a loud rumble of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Para gfs continues to give the city several inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yeah. 00Z Para GFS looks pretty good. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Multiple rounds of thunder, awful for January. Couldn't even get graupel which we had in a January thunderstorm a few years back. Also, it's not coming this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Yeah. 00Z Para GFS looks pretty good. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model 00Z Para GFS actually looks great. Cumulative precip map shows 1 plus inches of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: 00Z Para GFS actually looks great. Cumulative precip map shows 1 plus inches of liquid. that includes tonights rain ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: that includes tonights rain ? Yes. About a tenth or so inch of rain from tonight's rain judging by the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Unless the Euro does something later, the Para GFS is a big time outlier tonight. The UKMET just came in OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Thunder, lightning and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Captured some amazing photos of the fog this evening. Waited around for the line of storms but the visibility made the lightning hard to capture. Still cool to see the sky light up in January from a thunderstorm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Multiple rounds of thunder, awful for January. Couldn't even get graupel which we had in a January thunderstorm a few years back. Also, it's not coming this weekend Northern stream will still likely deliver some snow even if there's no phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Euro looks a little better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 33 or near Normal. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 7" of Snow by the 25th. The 13th storm is under 2" on all models. FV3 is great and looks like the GFS 0Z of Mon., with HIGH further west by 200 miles@1041mb. Tried to get latest Daily/30Day SOI on NOAA, but got Unemployment Ins. Info instead. JB did say the dailies went Negative recently. Anyone have a site for this? Interestingly, the EURO averages 38* on the 18th., while the GFS averages 24* on the same day. With storms incoming then, this will need to be resolved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 A light snow event or suppression look like the most likely options with the very strong NPAC jet continuing. While the MJO 8 is bringing the cold, the Pacific Jet is still too unfavorable for a classic BM KU event. Need to see that jet back off and allow the STJ to take over so it can ride north when we have cold in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: A light snow event or suppression look like the only 2 options with the very strong NPAC jet continuing. While the MJO 8 is bringing the cold, the Pacific Jet is still too unfavorable for a classic BM KU event. Need to see that jet back off and allow the STJ to take over so it can ride north when we have cold in place. That right there (unrelenting Pacific jet) is one of the reasons why I do not believe we are headed for a ‘14-‘15 esque late January to early March comeback. The other reason is the PDO. Jan-Mar ‘15 had a severely positive PDO, over +2. We have nothing close to that this time around. I believe the extremely positive PDO is what drove a lot of that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: Euro looks a little better. Yes it does. Hope it continues. Para gfs has a few inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That right there (unrelenting Pacific jet) is one of the reasons why I do not believe we are headed for a ‘14-‘15 esque late January to early March comeback. The other reason is the PDO. Jan-Mar ‘15 had a severely positive PDO, over +2. We have nothing close to that this time around. I believe the extremely positive PDO is what drove a lot of that winter While back-loaded winters are typical for El Niño’s, the flavor of this winter so far is different than 14-15. That winter had a wall to wall -EPO from the beginning of December right through March. This year the EPO has mostly been positive with a stronger PAC jet than we typically see with an El Niño. But exactly how back-loaded El Niño’s turn out to be is a bit of a surprise each year. So we’ll just have to wait and see how things turn out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Captured some amazing photos of the fog this evening. Waited around for the line of storms but the visibility made the lightning hard to capture. Still cool to see the sky light up in January from a thunderstorm. Is that the Verrazano or the Throgs Neck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: Is that the Verrazano or the Throgs Neck? Verrazano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Captured some amazing photos of the fog this evening. Waited around for the line of storms but the visibility made the lightning hard to capture. Still cool to see the sky light up in January from a thunderstorm. That's an awesome picture. I've been pretty good at getting sunrises/sunsets around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I think a big snowstorm is out of the question for this weekend but I think we still have a chance of a few inches. Right now SNJ southward looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: That right there (unrelenting Pacific jet) is one of the reasons why I do not believe we are headed for a ‘14-‘15 esque late January to early March comeback. The other reason is the PDO. Jan-Mar ‘15 had a severely positive PDO, over +2. We have nothing close to that this time around. I believe the extremely positive PDO is what drove a lot of that winter Agree. The strong Pac Jet screwed us a few years ago-largely unforecast then too...going to be difficult for any long lasting cold to get established with that Jet pushing Pac air across the continent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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