bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not let up in sight for the warmest temperature departures focusing over the Dakotas since December 1st. Williston, ND is close to challenging 2012 for the warmest start to winter on record. 1 2012-01-07 25.9 0 2 2019-01-07 24.5 0 3 1955-01-07 24.3 0 4 1960-01-07 24.0 0 5 1931-01-07 23.9 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Not let up in sight for the warmest temperature departures focusing over the Dakotas since December 1st. Williston, ND is close to challenging 2012 for the warmest start to winter on record. 1 2012-01-07 25.9 0 2 2019-01-07 24.5 0 3 1955-01-07 24.3 0 4 1960-01-07 24.0 0 5 1931-01-07 23.9 0 Its been a typical El Niño up there or I guess atypical in terms of how big the departures are. I believe even in 02-03 places like ND/SD torched most of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Alot of leaning members to the left on the eps Its coming, finally. Edit- Eh. This isn't a great look. I'll take your word on the indiviuals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its been a typical El Niño up there or I guess atypical in terms of how big the departures are. I believe even in 02-03 places like ND/SD torched most of the winter They had 2 top 5 warmest winters decade. But that is the prime location for the El Niño ridge to set up. It’s just been on the extreme side so far this winter akin to the WAR in 2018. 1 1931-02-28 26.4 0 2 1992-02-29 24.6 0 3 1987-02-28 23.8 0 4 2016-02-29 22.4 0 5 2012-02-29 22.1 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 NAM at 84 (FWIW) has snow approaching Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, mikem81 said: NAM at 84 (FWIW) has snow approaching Chicago It's consistently been in the GFS camp, albeit at the extreme end of its run. Interestingly, the NAM also appears to be much faster with the digging shortwave over Ontario; the most recent GFS runs have had it diving south on Sunday, but the NAM is bringing it down on Saturday. vs I'm not sure what that would mean for the storm though, and again this is the long range NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Beautiful day in the Catskills. Sunny 40F Surprised by the fog/must that starts southbound around Newburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Still haven't seen the 12Z GFS-FV3 and it's almost time for the 18Z, lol - anyone? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z gfs is already out to hour 84 lol government shutdown FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Changes at H5 through 96. Let's see... Continuing at 108. The vort is diving at the same time but it's north and east of at 12z. Might allow the storm to come north. Clearly N on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Beautiful day in the Catskills. Sunny 40F Surprised by the fog/must that starts southbound around Newburg The marine layer is creeping north ahead the convection. Just got some breaks in the fog here in time for the sunset. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18Z GFS looks slightly better than 12Z, i.e., a bit more expansive snow shield up to the Philly-NYC corridor (1-3" roughly), but the heavier snows (6" or so) remain across VA and into the DelMarVa and clipping far SE NJ. But not a "major" storm as other models have shown, presumably due to less phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: 18Z GFS looks slightly better than 12Z, i.e., a bit more expansive snow shield up to the Philly-NYC corridor (1-3" roughly), but the heavier snows (6" or so) remain across VA and into the DelMarVa and clipping far SE NJ. But not a "major" storm as other models have shown, presumably due to less phasing. Yeah, the storm comes further north but the faster vort means less phasing and a weaker storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The massive banana high may result in a large area of light snow. Unlike 2/6/10 even if we get screwed overall we may get something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Contributing the interest through the 12z/8 ensembles. I've noticed the EPS and GEPS 24 hr qpf edging north (GEFS further N than the .10 EPS). Does this continue or recede with cold dry air on the north fringe a problem? Also the EPS and GEFS in particular are taking the positive tilt southern stream and intensifying into a nearly neutral n-s position crossing the mid Atlc coast the 14th. On the GEFS, several members differ sharper slower than the 12z GFS op. UK has shifted south but at least the EC op through 12z/8 is steady with a period of S- to just n of I80 on the 13th. JMA is possibly too sharp and north but worthy of the most impressive course look. Long ways to go...but the way i see it. Trough in the east... almost everything the last 6 months or so seems to sharpen to the coast and tends to shift qpf a little northward toward T0. Confluence zone latitude between the north and southern 500MB stream will determine ultimately and i think we'll see that edge a little north. Long long ways to go for the short wave interactions ultimately determine the flow interactions. btw... its raining pretty good here this evening in Wantage. 36F, down from our max of 39. had .02 freezing pcpn early this morning and .15 since about 3PM. We're heading for a storm total between 1AM this morning and 7am Wednesday of 1/4-1/2". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Yeah, the storm comes further north but the faster vort means less phasing and a weaker storm. Para is also further north than 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Para is also further north than 12z Where are you getting the PARA? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Where are you getting the PARA? If you go to the ncep page and change the web address portion from “mag” to “mageval” you can get it or it’s on tropical tidbits under FV3-GFS under global models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you go to the ncep page and change the web address portion from “mag” to “mageval” you can get it or it’s on tropical tidbits under FV3-GFS under global models PARA on tropical tidbits is suck on 6z for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you go to the ncep page and change the web address portion from “mag” to “mageval” you can get it or it’s on tropical tidbits under FV3-GFS under global models Tidbits has the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: PARA on tropical tidbits is suck on 6z for me Yep, GFS-FV3 is stuck at 6Z on both Tropical and Pivotal. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Gefs is pretty nice for the NYC area. Much better south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is pretty nice for the NYC area. Much better south of the area. Looks like .5" of QPF for the area. Good sign considering the ensembles are usually too dry this far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 56 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Looks like .5" of QPF for the area. Good sign considering the ensembles are usually too dry this far out. The lower resolution of the ensembles can underestimate HP influence to the north though. The NAM under 48 hrs and the Euro usually do better with such strong HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: The lower resolution of the ensembles can underestimate confluence to the north though. The NAM under 48 hrs and the Euro usually do better with such strong HP to the north. There are a few gefs members which shows rain for the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The SOI was +0.15 today. It had been negative for 8 consecutive days. The last time the SOI was negative for 8 or more consecutive days was September 18 through October 3, 2018, a stretch of 16 consecutive days. The SOI should return to negative values in coming days. The AO was -0.306. This is the third consecutive day the AO was negative. On January 7, the MJO moved into Phase 8 with an amplitude of 2.405 (RMM). That amplitude was somewhat lower than the January 6-adjusted figure of 2.518. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. However, both the dynamical and statistical guidance suggests that the MJO's progression will likely slow as it moves through Phase 8. Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude. It would then move into Phase 1. As that happens, the AO could have some positive fluctuations before it returns to mainly negative values. The development of a sustained pattern change to colder weather remains unchanged. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or significant (6" or more) snowfall is increasing. Based on the forecast teleconnections, the January 10-24 period will see an above to much above average statistical probability of measurable snow. The probability of a moderate snowstorm during the MJO's Phase 8 and a PNA+/AO- combination is approximately twice as high as climatology. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 31 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There are a few gefs members which shows rain for the coast lol With such strong high pressure forecast over New England, the Euro and really short range weekend NAM will probably be the way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I have been laying low since I have a broken collar bone from ice boarding but I think we are solid for a light snow event. There is nothing screaming big storm but we have seen allot more moisture in past storms then modeled. I like a general 2-3” across the area. Anything is better then nothing at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have been laying low since I have a broken collar bone from ice boarding but I think we are solid for a light snow event. There is nothing screaming big storm but we have seen allot more moisture in past storms then modeled. I like a general 2-3” across the area. Anything is better then nothing at this point. Sorry to hear that. Get well soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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