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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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55 minutes ago, tim said:

...yeah..i have my doubts re: sunday..to be honest more intrigued with the 

pattern going forward..alot of signs pointing to a great 2nd half of january..but

in the mean time we track sunday..would be nice to see it snowing here and

in foxboro,ma as the LA/SD chargers beat the patriots.

While we will be getting some MJO 8 cold, the Pacific Jet is still too fast to allow the STJ disturbance to really amplify. You can see another piece of energy coming into the West Coast as the STJ disturbance exits the East Coast. 

BBC509F2-8A2B-4E9E-B1B8-A8E9E97165D0.thumb.png.2efc7b52a245cdc3211bfc7eefab3305.png

 

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Looks like another non-zero risk of thunderstorms in the area overnight. Steep lapse rates with the approaching upper trough will provide some minimal CAPE ahead of its associated cold front. Could mainly be gusty showers for the NYC area 11-2 tonight; lightning appears most likely for the mountains to the W and N.

image.thumb.png.8b47ec5a6fc474d1eac3940228fbc6e6.png

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we will be getting some MJO 8 cold, the Pacific Jet is still too fast to allow the STJ disturbance to really amplify. You can see another piece of energy coming into the West Coast as the STJ disturbance exits the East Coast. 

@bluewave do you forsee the eventual retrogression as allowing the Pac jet to relax and openning the door to increased storms threats,  or do you feel after the Pac improves extreme blocking may take over and be another means to deflect storms South.  

Was reading that some mets feel the real target zone significant snowfall the next 4 weeks is in the South.

Yet, the look on the spculative 46 day snowfall from the Euro does not really indicate that, surprisingly max snowfall I think comes from missing storms to the East,  as the it has the highest snowfall anamolies of the Mid Atlantic Coast.  

Any thoughts oi that?  Thanks  

 

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todays ao forecast looks good...it will be negative for the 13th storm...it rises to neutral but all members go quite negative at the end of the run...this is what I was waiting for...hopefully the forecast doesn't change tomorrow...it looks like a minus 3-4sd coming up... 

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I think it is far too soon to write off the possibility of at least a moderate (4" or more) snowstorm for the weekend. The MJO is in Phase 8 (during which many of the region's moderate or greater snowstorms have occurred). The AO has gone negative and an AO-/PNA+ combination is likely. More than two-thirds of the region's moderate or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a combination. The pattern evolution has been moving in the right direction as per the ensembles (EPS and GEFS). At this timeframe, the ensembles still carry greater weight than the operational models, IMO.

Nothing is cast in stone from this far out. Critical details will be crucial this time around and those details may not be resolved until the storm is within 72 hours. A missed phase would mean little or no snow for much of the region. A partial phase could be sufficient to produce a moderate snowfall, especially in places such as southeastern Pennsylvania, southern and central New Jersey. A full phase could result in a significant snowfall across the region.

One counterargument would be that the major December 8-10, 2018 Southeast snowstorm was consistently well-predicted by most (not all) of the guidance some 10 days in advance. First, such extended range accuracy is not common. Second, the synoptic situation was a very simple one. One was dealing with little more than a powerful ridge sliding eastward across the northern Middle Atlantic region with a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. The synoptic pattern was a close match to the 500 mb patterns present for some of the historic Southeast storms that affected mainly North Carolina and a part of Virginia while bringing little or no snow from Washington, DC northward. Phasing was not a variable that time around. It's an important question this time around.

For now, I believe the weekend storm still bears watching. There remains a distinct possibility that it could bring an accumulating snow in the region. The details remain to be worked out.

There is a chance that the system will pass to our south, but bring snow much farther north than the aforementioned December storm (perhaps including such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Harrisburg). There remains a possibility that the storm will deliver a moderate snowfall to much of the region and into southern New England (including snow-starved Boston where just 0.2" has accumulated through January 7, that city's 2nd least snowfall on record through January 7).

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

todays ao forecast looks good...it will be negative for the 13th storm...it rises to neutral but all members go quite negative at the end of the run...this is what I was waiting for...hopefully the forecast doesn't change tomorrow...it looks like a minus 3-4sd coming up... 

I think the turn to negative was consistent with the MJO's moving through Phase 7 and into 8. The bounce higher has sometimes occurred during Phase 1 before the AO returned to negative values. For now, I think things remain on track for an extended period where the AO will be negative and the PNA will be positive.

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52 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Looks like another non-zero risk of thunderstorms in the area overnight. Steep lapse rates with the approaching upper trough will provide some minimal CAPE ahead of its associated cold front. Could mainly be gusty showers for the NYC area 11-2 tonight; lightning appears most likely for the mountains to the W and N.

image.thumb.png.8b47ec5a6fc474d1eac3940228fbc6e6.png

That's really an impressive sounding for January. It will be interesting to see the reports later on.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's really an impressive sounding for January. It will be interesting to see the reports later on.

No kidding; 12Z soundings out in the Lakes/Midwest have 7-8 C/km lapse rates! The 500mb jet max currently poking into the Chicago area will be favorably placed for strong lift around midnight tonight. 

wv.thumb.PNG.cb6c42d635a0c2ef7cd2e3eeb733ba21.PNG

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@bluewave do you forsee the eventual retrogression as allowing the Pac jet to relax and openning the door to increased storms threats,  or do you feel after the Pac improves extreme blocking may take over and be another means to deflect storms South.  

Was reading that some mets feel the real target zone significant snowfall the next 4 weeks is in the South.

Yet, the look on the spculative 46 day snowfall from the Euro does not really indicate that, surprisingly max snowfall I think comes from missing storms to the East,  as the it has the highest snowfall anamolies of the Mid Atlantic Coast.  

Any thoughts oi that?  Thanks  

 

It looks like a back and forth pattern coming up with the various MJO phases. We will  turn colder  as the MJO passses through phase 8. Then some moderation in the pattern as the MJO goes into the circle or perhaps back to 5-6. 

0012739C-4483-4A2A-9992-7694E8BA4FFD.gif.41aff515c14cb9cc27de53b4bea82a2e.gif

 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like a back and forth pattern coming up with the various MJO phases. We will  turn colder  as the MJO passses through phase 8. Then some moderation in the pattern as the MJO goes into the circle or perhaps back to 5-6. 

0012739C-4483-4A2A-9992-7694E8BA4FFD.gif.41aff515c14cb9cc27de53b4bea82a2e.gif

 

weak amplitude in 5 or 6, but that needs to be watched if the amplitude is higher, we'll be back to the warmth in no time...amazing how it races through the cold phases, but crawled through the warm phases...just doesn't seem to be lining up for any thing long lasting cold wise....

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

t looks like a back and forth pattern coming up with the various MJO phases. We will  turn colder  as the MJO passses through phase 8. Then some moderation in the pattern as the MJO goes into the circle or perhaps back to 5-6. 

Thanks, I have read that we might transition back to moderation after the intial cold, but as of yesterday that window has gotten smaller. I have not checked today. 

The opinion of some is after any moderation we may lock into the cold longer, I imagine such as the weeklies are showing. Also seems to be issues with the MJO forecasts. I really thought we see a longer period of a -SOI.  I was looking for a coupling of the Nino, and locking into a good pattern.  

Seems a lot of reshuffling is going on at this time. Not sure at times what to think really when I see the SOI and the MJO. I guess I am simply looking for things to be concerned about.  Thanks for your insights !  

 

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2 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Looks like another non-zero risk of thunderstorms in the area overnight. Steep lapse rates with the approaching upper trough will provide some minimal CAPE ahead of its associated cold front. Could mainly be gusty showers for the NYC area 11-2 tonight; lightning appears most likely for the mountains to the W and N.

image.thumb.png.8b47ec5a6fc474d1eac3940228fbc6e6.png

Chance of hail with this as well

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42 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

weak amplitude in 5 or 6, but that needs to be watched if the amplitude is higher, we'll be back to the warmth in no time...amazing how it races through the cold phases, but crawled through the warm phases...just doesn't seem to be lining up for any thing long lasting cold wise....

MJO forecasts have it pretty much stay in the COD and then slowly rotate towards phase 7/8, very 2015 esque. 

Low amplitude all the way. Brilliant look on the GEFS, our snow drought will likely come to a halt soon.

IMO February will deliver multiple KU events and will make a lot of these posts look silly.

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21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

MJO forecasts have it pretty much stay in the COD and then slowly rotate towards phase 7/8, very 2015 esque. 

Low amplitude all the way. Brilliant look on the GEFS, our snow drought will likely come to a halt soon.

IMO February will deliver multiple KU events and will make a lot of these posts look silly.

some of the MJO forecasts have been all over the place.  If what you say happens then game on, but given all the day to day changes, I'd like to see a colder pattern lock in before we jump on board the Polar Express...

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Thanks, I have read that we might transition back to moderation after the intial cold, but as of yesterday that window has gotten smaller. I have not checked today. 

The opinion of some is after any moderation we may lock into the cold longer, I imagine such as the weeklies are showing. Also seems to be issues with the MJO forecasts. I really thought we see a longer period of a -SOI.  I was looking for a coupling of the Nino, and locking into a good pattern.  

Seems a lot of reshuffling is going on at this time. Not sure at times what to think really when I see the SOI and the MJO. I guess I am simply looking for things to be concerned about.  Thanks for your insights !  

 

The very active MJO in recent years has made for some interesting winter twists and turns. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

weak amplitude in 5 or 6, but that needs to be watched if the amplitude is higher, we'll be back to the warmth in no time...amazing how it races through the cold phases, but crawled through the warm phases...just doesn't seem to be lining up for any thing long lasting cold wise....

MJO re-emergence in phases 5&6 in late January would definitely not be good, to say the very least

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14 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

12z CMC largely holds serve, although the outflow on the NW side of the low continues to be oddly constricted.

In the big picture, yes, it's very similar to 0Z, but for folks like me, it's a large difference between getting ~8" vs. ~3", as the snowfall map essentially shifted south about 30-40 miles.  We can see that kind of shift within 24 hours, so that difference is basically inconsequential 5 days out, but just noting the difference.  

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