NJwx85 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another reason to be cautious about GFS solutions right now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d23be43c6907 But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems on Dec. 25,” Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data. S“Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.” You would think that those employees would be considered essential personnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Same goes for NAM as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You would think that those employees would be considered essential personnel. We knew something was up when the GFS came out with that ridiculous MJO forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Para gfs is further north than the gfs along with the gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Forget the GFS , it stinks and they just told you it’s broken anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Forget the GFS , it stinks and they just told you it’s broken anyway. That's not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 As of 6 pm, today's high temperature was 32°. The first week of January had a mean temperature of 40.0° in New York City. That is the 23rd warmest first week on record in New York City. Records go back to 1869. Beginning in 2000, there have been four prior cases where the first week of the month averaged 39.0° or above: 2000, 2004, 2005, and 2007. The second half of January (January 16-31) had the following mean temperatures for those cases: 2000: 22.7°, 2004: 21.2°, 2005: 21.1°, and 2007: 29.2°. If January 16-31, 2019 has a mean temperature that matches the 2007 figure, the January anomaly for New York City would likely finish just below the normal figure of 32.6° for the month. Thus, despite early warmth to start the month, the forthcoming pattern change could lead to the month's being colder than normal as a whole. The SOI was -4.33 today. It has now been negative for 8 consecutive days. The last time the SOI was negative for 8 or more consecutive days was September 18 through October 3, 2018, a stretch of 16 consecutive days. On January 6, the MJO moved into Phase 8 with an amplitude of 2.508 (RMM). That amplitude was higher than the January 5-adjusted figure of 2.444. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. However, both the dynamical and statistical guidance suggests that the MJO's progression will likely slow as it moves through Phase 8. Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude. It would then move into Phase 1. As that happens, the AO could have some positive fluctuations before it returns to mainly negative values. The development of a sustained pattern change to colder weather remains unchanged. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or significant (6" or more) snowfall is increasing. Based on the forecast teleconnections, the January 10-24 period will see an above to much above average statistical probability of measurable snow. Statistically, much of the second half of December and opening of January was in the lower third for the teleconnections. Just a trace of snow was recorded during that time. Last winter, just 2% of seasonal snowfall accumulated during similar statistical periods. Already, several shortwaves in the January 13-15 and January 19-22 period continue to bear watching. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Congrats southern mid Atlantic on the gfs. Confluence too strong. Congrats? It's 6 days away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Para gfs is further north than the gfs along with the gefs Northern energy dug a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS should not be used for the foreseeable future 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: That's not true But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?utm_term=.f23487e545b1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: GFS should not be used for the foreseeable future Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Nice snowfall on the gfs and cmc for NYC southward with less amounts north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice snowfall on the gfs and cmc for NYC southward with less amounts north of the city. Would love to see the Euro on board tonight. Regardless I think the tellies look pretty good for a storm. MJO should be at phase 8/1. Neutral NAO, AO dip, rising PNA. Nice cold banana high as well. The biggest question mark is whether or not the confluence will be too strong. Could still end up being a Mid-Atlantic hit with more fringe effects around NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice snowfall on the gfs and cmc for NYC southward with less amounts north of the city. guess we shouldn't use the CMC either ? almost identical except CMC slower by 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: guess we shouldn't use the CMC either ? almost identical except CMC slower by 6 hours I rarely do. Euro/Ukie > GFS/CMC. It's a good rule to live by. But as for this storm, we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I rarely do. Euro/Ukie > GFS/CMC. It's a good rule to live by. But as for this storm, we'll see. this far out its a toss up IMO - but the GFS being "broken" as reported by some is questionable since its similar to the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Positive trends so far tonight, as the confluence is setting up further north on the models. GFS in particular showing the potential for quite an overrunning event. Would love to get the Euro or Ukie on board. As for the GFS accuracy, I don't think it's wise to trash it as long as there support from other models (CMC, JMA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: this far out its a toss up IMO - but the GFS being "broken" as reported by some is questionable since its similar to the CMC. 35 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Positive trends so far tonight, as the confluence is setting up further north on the models. GFS in particular showing the potential for quite an overrunning event. Would love to get the Euro or Ukie on board. As for the GFS accuracy, I don't think it's wise to trash it as long as there support from other models (CMC, JMA). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro is too slow yet again with ejecting this out and that makes a huge difference. It has trended better with the PNA out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Sleet currently with a slight coating. It will be gone before anyone wakes up, but it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Closer to normal lows in the 20’s actually feel cold this morning. This was only the 2nd time on record that NYC didn’t drop below 30 degrees from Dec 20 to Jan 6. 1 2007-01-06 33 0 2 2019-01-06 31 0 the 06-07 analog is not one I would want to repeat, but right now the 06-07 and 12-13 seasons are the closest matches in terms of actual weather conditions up to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Sleet currently with a slight coating. It will be gone before anyone wakes up, but it happened. it actually woke me up, it was sleeting hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 17 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Multiquote, child. cant do it on this browser (or any of the other 3 I have installed) for some reason trust me I tried, could be some setting that needs to be changed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or near Normal. GFS is 12"(now 0"-06Z), CMC is 4"(13th). EURO is a Trace of Snow for the next 10. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 7" by the 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Gfs is really squashed It's funny how every threat so far since November has been rain or squashed. We can't get lucky at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is really squashed It's funny how every threat so far since November has been rain or squashed. We can't get lucky at all Meh, could just be an off run. I'll be concerned if it shows the same at 12z. Meanwhile Euro continues to show incremental improvements each run despite being shredded out. Bottomline no one should keep their guard down with this threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Meh, could just be an off run. I'll be concerned if it shows the same at 12z. Meanwhile Euro continues to show incremental improvements each run despite being shredded out. Bottomline no one should keep their guard down with this threat. I don’t think the systems (northern stream and E Pacific storm) are over land yet. Let’s see if better sampling changes anything when they do come closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I called out of work Sunday, just in case. I'd probably make more shoveling driveways. I've made nearly $250 a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is really squashed It's funny how every threat so far since November has been rain or squashed. We can't get lucky at all ...yeah..i have my doubts re: sunday..to be honest more intrigued with the pattern going forward..alot of signs pointing to a great 2nd half of january..but in the mean time we track sunday..would be nice to see it snowing here and in foxboro,ma as the LA/SD chargers beat the patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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