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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going to keep quiet for the remainder of the tracking of this storm so I don’t get accused of anything and I’m not going to give my opinion of what I think is going to happen. All I’ll say is don’t get emotionally invested in this storm

Yeah. I agree. Keep a good distance away from this one. The position of the tPV is the deal breaker with this one.

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The pattern change around the 10th is on target. Accumulating snow is likely for some Sun/ Mon .

Not sure how much but I believe you will see some snow that is able to make it out of the S branch into very cold air which should accumulate.

If you phase ( then it`s more snow ) , but right now I think there will be enough out of the S branch alone to make it this far N. 

There is no moderation on the Euro at all. 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No it doesn't

Euro has caved many times in the past

All models have had their fair share of problems with east coast storms, EURO definitely being one of them. And now with the euro running 4x a day I’m sure you will see just flip flops with it as you would with the gfs. I still would say the EURO is the best but it’s not sitting atop a mountain overlooking all the other models like it used to.

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23 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Bluewave or anyone else is MJO currently into phase 8 ?

 

The CPC charts have it in phase 8 today. But all models quickly take it to the circle by the end of the week. So it’s not enough time to change the fast Pacific flow while we get the trough back into the East. Probably not a good time to get invested in any  specific storms right now. 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CPC charts have it in phase 8 today. But all models quickly take it to the circle by the end of the week. So it’s not enough time to change the fast Pacific flow while we get the trough back into the East. Probably not a good time to get invested in any  specific storms right now. 

 

These have been preforming the best 

last.90d.RMMPhase.png

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The 35-40 dbz echos near Allentown and Bethlehem PA is a graupel shower mixed with some large snow flakes.  The intensity is way overdone on radar.

Damn. I was looking forward to see if it held together. Doesn't look like it matters. Brightband city. Being a weenie, I'm hoping it does regardless. 

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Another reason to be cautious about GFS solutions right now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d23be43c6907

But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it.

“There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems on Dec. 25,” Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk.

Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data.

S“Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.”

 

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