wdrag Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 On late12-early 14... I follow ensembles in general and I think we have an event coming per GEFS/EPS/GEPS. ( I definitely think the FV3 has problems and am not looking forward to the change, but it must come, because I think thats what the modeling world needs, to make a substantial improvement on the GFS~ 2020-21). In this situation, I want to see the GGEM OP come on board. Until that happens... my confidence on type/size are with doubts but it seems at least a grazer .1 to .5" qpf NYC/NNJ is coming with potent "options" for a bigger storm. An event has been in the modeling for many-many days. I wont be able to restudy this in depth til either this evening or early Tuesday. I think (not sure if its already up) its time we start a thread on snowfall/ice amounts observations from 6PM this evening through 10AM Tuesday for this first minor event centered on the 8th n and w of NYC. That can keep the conversations separated when the first little batch of precip arrives this evening. Have a good day. Walt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I felt it lol my house was shaking. I thought 40 mph was wind advisory conditions? 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: what about all this cold and possible snow coming for next weekend? that looks like a sustained cold pattern 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: anemometers are a pain to put up though lol especially in areas with a lot of tall objects around 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I have been saying for awhile that not getting any benchmark tracks at all this fall or early winter was a bit of a concern, things could turn 06-07 like in terms of storm tracks because usually you need to see the benchmark track get established early on even when its raining 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: so 1997-98 had the latest measurable snow on record with that 0.5" on 2/4? or did 72-73 have no measurable snow until that 2.8" on 3/28? 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wasnt 1957-58 a really good strong el nino year? 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: maybe more like be split between 12/13 and 06/07 14/15 was very extreme 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: you should mount it in the shade lol away from any sunlight 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: the key is also the storm track 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don does that mean the wind reversal has or will happen at 30 mb also? Multiquote, child. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Gfs is coming in great Cmc is also now on board for next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: Every model has this storm Time to take this seriously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Gfs crushes us, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, wdrag said: On late12-early 14... I follow ensembles in general and I think we have an event coming per GEFS/EPS/GEPS. ( I definitely think the FV3 has problems and am not looking forward to the change, but it must come, because I think thats what the modeling world needs, to make a substantial improvement on the GFS~ 2020-21). In this situation, I want to see the GGEM OP come on board. Until that happens... my confidence on type/size are with doubts but it seems at least a grazer .1 to .5" qpf NYC/NNJ is coming with potent "options" for a bigger storm. An event has been in the modeling for many-many days. I wont be able to restudy this in depth til either this evening or early Tuesday. I think (not sure if its already up) its time we start a thread on snowfall/ice amounts observations from 6PM this evening through 10AM Tuesday for this first minor event centered on the 8th n and w of NYC. That can keep the conversations separated when the first little batch of precip arrives this evening. Have a good day. Walt Has the new GFS been worse than the old one? If so, how can the NOAA make the switch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs crushes us, all snow Over a foot of snow on the clown maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 That synoptic evolution was about ten steps back compared to the previous two runs. I wouldn't fall in love with this yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: That synoptic evolution was about ten steps back compared to the previous two runs. I wouldn't fall in love with this yet. It's all about the ridge and timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Wow, the CMC is great too, 990 low just inside BM. Doesn't throw much precip back to us but with that track that shouldn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: January 13th, 1964 NYC got over a foot of snow in a blizzard...will the 13th turn out lucky?... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I wouldn't say the GFS "Crushes us". But it is a good sign. The Euro on the other hand is weaker and much further south. That it the model we all should be following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GFS track is too far north with that setup. Would definitely be further south and east than that. Not necessarily by a ton but certainly not that far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: I wouldn't say the GFS "Crushes us". But it is a good sign. The Euro on the other hand is weaker and much further south. That it the model we all should be following. I forgot we now need 2 feet of snow to be considered crushed 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Wow, the CMC is great too, 990 low just inside BM. Doesn't throw much precip back to us but with that track that shouldn't be a problem. And the 12z GGEM does still manage to give most of the area a 4 to 6 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 38 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is coming in great Cmc is also now on board for next weekend. I would feel MUCH better if the Euro jumped on board but YES this is a good thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I hope that the Para will come out faster once it's the main GFS model. It's been stuck on 102 for 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 58 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: That synoptic evolution was about ten steps back compared to the previous two runs. I wouldn't fall in love with this yet. I didn’t want to be the one to say it. But yea, if it keeps progressing like that on future runs it’s going to push it further and further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: I didn’t want to be the one to say it. But yea, if it keeps progressing like that on future runs it’s going to push it further and further south and east. The gfs made a big improvement at 12z. I don't see how the 12z gfs looked worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 'Tis the season for Mid-Atlantic storms suppressed to the south. Hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The gfs made a big improvement at 12z. I don't see how the 12z gfs looked worse. I’m going to keep quiet for the remainder of the tracking of this storm so I don’t get accused of anything and I’m not going to give my opinion of what I think is going to happen. All I’ll say is don’t get emotionally invested in this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, TriPol said: 'Tis the season for Mid-Atlantic storms suppressed to the south. Hope I'm wrong. This synoptic setup is reminiscent of the early December storm honestly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m going to keep quiet for the remainder of the tracking of this storm so I don’t get accused of anything and I’m not going to give my opinion of what I think is going to happen. All I’ll say is don’t get emotionally invested in this storm The TPV can be a problem but you a stout pna ridge and it could help to make the tpv go north to south and help it phase in or get that out the way to help it come up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I didn’t want to be the one to say it. But yea, if it keeps progressing like that on future runs it’s going to push it further and further south and east. The FV3 shows this. We still get snow but heaviest is south of the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The FV3 shows this. We still get snow but heaviest is south of the area Some snow is better than no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: Wow, the CMC is great too, 990 low just inside BM. Doesn't throw much precip back to us but with that track that shouldn't be a problem. that depiction has mistakes in it the 540 line is off the coast yet the graphic shows rain to the left of it - more then likely the precip coverage field is wrong too - in January a low in that position at that strength with 540 off the coast is all snow on the mainland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m going to keep quiet for the remainder of the tracking of this storm so I don’t get accused of anything and I’m not going to give my opinion of what I think is going to happen. All I’ll say is don’t get emotionally invested in this storm I find it interesting how everyone is always ready to dismiss a storm when it shows up on guidance. However I too feel this will end up further south or won't end up as amped as shown. On the other hand the MJO will be finally be favorable, so I'm more intrigued than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: Some snow is better than no snow. I suppose that's true of most things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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