Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: anyone who throws in the towel on this winter is wrong to do so for a number of reasons - here are a few 1. Too early in the season to do so. 2. SSW's have been associated with an increase of winter storms a few weeks after they occur -that article has a few examples. 3. If you look back at snowfall records for NYC each time we had more then 6 inches of snow in November - we had much above normal snowfall for the season. 4. Modoki El NIno's have a history of producing above normal snowfall in the region I'd agree overall...January is mostly toast, that was the bust...most models showed cold pattern moving in around 12/25 or 1/1, that will be off by at least 3 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: I'd agree overall...January is mostly toast, that was the bust...most models showed cold pattern moving in around 12/25 or 1/1, that will be off by at least 3 weeks... this could be a January that ends up with above normal temps and above normal snowfall still 28 days left in the month - its not toast yet IMO the models are playing catch up with the SSW as the week 3 weeklies are displaying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd agree overall...January is mostly toast, that was the bust...most models showed cold pattern moving in around 12/25 or 1/1, that will be off by at least 3 weeks... January isn't toast You are better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Euro weeklies have a good pattern starting mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: learn from prior years bud. Sure it's exciting to see, but the weeklies have had the goods in the LR for about a month now with little movement forward. First it was 12/20, then 1/1 then 1/15 and now we're pushing towards 2/1... Not really. Many people recall that because some Op runs showed it but the Euro weeklies never really showed much hope prior to 1/10 at best. 2 weeks ago week 5 was great, week 4 was good, week 3 was lousy. That’s about where we are now. Week 3 great, week 2 is meh, and week one is lousy. Week 2/4 is where the error mostly happened 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 After having spent 15 consecutive days in Phase 5, the MJO moved into Phase 6 on January 2. The MJO had an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). That amplitude is below the 1/1-adjusted figure of 2.715. The MJO will likely approach and then reach Phase 7 late in the first week of January or early in the second week of January. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there remains some risk that it could make a slower progression through Phase 6 than currently modeled. The SOI, which has now been negative for 4 consecutive days. The AO will likely remain mainly positive for the time being. However, it could develop negative values as the MJO approaches Phase 7. As the MJO reaches Phase 7, the SOI will likely become persistently negative. The AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. The likelihood of a moderate or greater snowstorm in the general New York City area will remain very low until the MJO reaches Phase 7. Just 2/31 of the 4" or greater January snowstorms in New York City occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6. During El Niño winters, no such snowstorms occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6 where it will likely be perhaps into the beginning of the second week in January. Occasionally, the first half of January has proved exceptionally warm for the season with an absence of snow, before winter came to life during the second half of the month. One such winter was 1906-07. The first week of January 1907 saw the temperature average 47.3° in New York City. The January 8-15 period remained balmy with a mean temperature of 40.2°. Through January 15, just 1.3" snow had fallen. The January 16-31 period turned much colder. The temperature averaged 26.8°. By the end of January, an additional 11.0" snow had fallen. January 17, February 24, and March 10 all saw 6.0" snowstorms. Winter 1906-07 concluded with 5.0" snow on April 9. When all of its snowfall was totaled, it turned out to be among New York City's snowier winters on record with seasonal snowfall finishing at 53.2". Another such winter was 2004-05. The first week of January 2005 saw the temperature average 44.6° in New York City. The January 8-15 period remained unseasonably mild with a mean temperature of 40.1°. Through January 15, just 3.0" snow had fallen. As strong blocking rapidly developed, the January 16-31 period turned much colder. The temperature averaged a frigid 21.1°. By the end of January, thanks to a January 22-23 blizzard that dumped 13.8" snow, 15.3" additional snow had fallen. Additional storms brought 6.0" snow on February 24-25 and 7.7" on February 28-March 1. Winter 2004-05 finished with 41.0" snow in Central Park. The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has resulted in a reversal of the 1 mb and 10 mb zonal winds. The polar vortex is beginning to split. Nevertheless, there remains considerable uncertainty about the overall evolution of events related to the SSW and their ultimate impact on North America. Any outcome will likely have a long-duration effect on the overall pattern following the completion of the ongoing event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 EURO WEEKLIES give us a little cold for Jan. 10-14, then take it away till Jan. 23-Feb.18, when the WEEKLIES show continuous cold for 75% of the country (all east of the Rockies). Eventually the WEEKLIES will get on track and look accurate for a while, Hot/Cold or Indifferent. The criteria for judging these types of LR outputs should be determined by how many major atmospheric 'turns' they can get right by timing and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Things appear to be lining up for a 2010 Jan-March repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Officially split down to the stratosphere, with another warming to split them down to the troposphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Things appear to be lining up for a 2010 Jan-March repeat What happened in 2010 Jan-March? I don’t remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: What happened in 2010 Jan-March? I don’t remember. Snowiest February on record 36.9 inches https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: What happened in 2010 Jan-March? I don’t remember. Mild January, Snowy February (One of the Snowiest February's on Record for much of the area), and then a Stormy March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Mild January, Snowy February (One of the Snowiest February's on Record for much of the area), and then a Stormy March. it was too bad the cold air became stale in March-there were 2 or 3 storms that if snow would have been unreal....it was a mid 30's type rain.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: What happened in 2010 Jan-March? I don’t remember. Folks to the north of the city just saw cirrus for most of the biggest storms. Then we had the storm where the rain/ snow line set up along / near the Hudson River. Probably one of the biggest screw jobs ever for the weenies in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: What happened in 2010 Jan-March? I don’t remember. For me, every storm underperformed. The worst being 2/6 ( because I was still progged to get8-12, got 3 ) Dec 2009 I got 10, 2/11 I got around10, 2/26 I got 8. Not bad but seriously less than people 30 mins from me...wouldn't mind having some of those events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Next week's storm is colder on the cmc and Gfs. The city starts off as snow on both models but then change to rain with more snow for inland areas. The key to get this colder is the high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Next week's storm is colder on the cmc and Gfs. The city starts off as snow on both models but then change to rain with more snow for inland areas. The key to get this colder is the high to the north. Could turn into a sneaky event, MJO should be in phase 7 by then, much more favorable for snows than 5/6. I'd still favor SNE/CNE though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Could turn into a sneaky event, MJO should be in phase 7 by then, much more favorable for snows than 5/6. I'd still favor SNE/CNE though. Those areas are def favored but maybe we can eek out some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: anyone who throws in the towel on this winter is wrong to do so for a number of reasons - here are a few 1. Too early in the season to do so. 2. SSW's have been associated with an increase of winter storms a few weeks after they occur -that article has a few examples. 3. If you look back at snowfall records for NYC each time we had more then 6 inches of snow in November - we had much above normal snowfall for the season. 4. Modoki El NIno's have a history of producing above normal snowfall in the region That's why I would be utterly stunned if this winter ends up being a complete ratter. There are too many positive developments heading forward. Like I've said before, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw 2+ KU events between Jan 20 and March 15. I think at worst we're looking at a colder version of 06/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's why I would be utterly stunned if this winter ends up being a complete ratter. There are too many positive developments heading forward. Like I've said before, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw 2+ KU events between Jan 20 and March 15. I think at worst we're looking at a colder version of 06/07. February 07 was almost -7, we just couldn't get any snow. Was a very impressive flip considering we saw 70 in early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 hours ago, weatherpruf said: For me, every storm underperformed. The worst being 2/6 ( because I was still progged to get8-12, got 3 ) Dec 2009 I got 10, 2/11 I got around10, 2/26 I got 8. Not bad but seriously less than people 30 mins from me...wouldn't mind having some of those events this year. That winter was epic for the central MA and aggravating for everyone north of the PA turnpike. Almost everyone in the northern MA ended up getting one big hit but it was hard not to be disappointed with all of the close calls and sharp cutoffs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 SOI is tanking hard. 4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11 3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31 2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48 1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66 31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 hours ago, Tatamy said: Folks to the north of the city just saw cirrus for most of the biggest storms. Then we had the storm where the rain/ snow line set up along / near the Hudson River. Probably one of the biggest screw jobs ever for the weenies in NE. Ehh for December maybe. Finished with 77" here and experienced a top 3 storm in my 40 yrs of existence. Feb 2010 had 45-50" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Things appear to be lining up for a 2010 Jan-March repeat it wasnt March though lol it was Dec-Feb and trust me we dont want the kind of storm that happened in the first week of Feb 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 hours ago, Tatamy said: Folks to the north of the city just saw cirrus for most of the biggest storms. Then we had the storm where the rain/ snow line set up along / near the Hudson River. Probably one of the biggest screw jobs ever for the weenies in NE. and for us the biggest screw job was that first week of Feb storm lol, 2 feet of snow just 50 miles south of here and only 1-2 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: After having spent 15 consecutive days in Phase 5, the MJO moved into Phase 6 on January 2. The MJO had an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). That amplitude is below the 1/1-adjusted figure of 2.715. The MJO will likely approach and then reach Phase 7 late in the first week of January or early in the second week of January. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there remains some risk that it could make a slower progression through Phase 6 than currently modeled. The SOI, which has now been negative for 4 consecutive days. The AO will likely remain mainly positive for the time being. However, it could develop negative values as the MJO approaches Phase 7. As the MJO reaches Phase 7, the SOI will likely become persistently negative. The AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. The likelihood of a moderate or greater snowstorm in the general New York City area will remain very low until the MJO reaches Phase 7. Just 2/31 of the 4" or greater January snowstorms in New York City occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6. During El Niño winters, no such snowstorms occurred when the MJO was in Phase 6 where it will likely be perhaps into the beginning of the second week in January. Occasionally, the first half of January has proved exceptionally warm for the season with an absence of snow, before winter came to life during the second half of the month. One such winter was 1906-07. The first week of January 1907 saw the temperature average 47.3° in New York City. The January 8-15 period remained balmy with a mean temperature of 40.2°. Through January 15, just 1.3" snow had fallen. The January 16-31 period turned much colder. The temperature averaged 26.8°. By the end of January, an additional 11.0" snow had fallen. January 17, February 24, and March 10 all saw 6.0" snowstorms. Winter 1906-07 concluded with 5.0" snow on April 9. When all of its snowfall was totaled, it turned out to be among New York City's snowier winters on record with seasonal snowfall finishing at 53.2". Another such winter was 2004-05. The first week of January 2005 saw the temperature average 44.6° in New York City. The January 8-15 period remained unseasonably mild with a mean temperature of 40.1°. Through January 15, just 3.0" snow had fallen. As strong blocking rapidly developed, the January 16-31 period turned much colder. The temperature averaged a frigid 21.1°. By the end of January, thanks to a January 22-23 blizzard that dumped 13.8" snow, 15.3" additional snow had fallen. Additional storms brought 6.0" snow on February 24-25 and 7.7" on February 28-March 1. Winter 2004-05 finished with 41.0" snow in Central Park. The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has resulted in a reversal of the 1 mb and 10 mb zonal winds. The polar vortex is beginning to split. Nevertheless, there remains considerable uncertainty about the overall evolution of events related to the SSW and their ultimate impact on North America. Any outcome will likely have a long-duration effect on the overall pattern following the completion of the ongoing event. 2004-05 looks like another fair analog along with 2012-13, didn't 2012-13 also end up with around 40" of seasonal snowfall in NYC, Don? 2006-07 and 2011-12 are in the back of my mind though Don will the reversal happen at 30 mb too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Snowiest February on record 36.9 inches https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf and that was with whiffing on the 2 ft blizzard at the start of the month, otherwise we would have had 60" in February. Oh well, one year it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The temperature and 500 mb response for North America has been following the classic mild El Niño script since the beginning of December. Notice the heavy STJ rains over the Eastern US that is expected during an El Niño. But the strong STR north of Hawaii and fire hose PAC jet has had more of a La Niña flavor. This is MJO and possibly +SOI related. One would expect to see the pattern turn colder on an El Niño track sometime between January 20th and February 1st. The mid month MJO verification will probably determine if the shift happens closer to the 20th of February 1st. Remember in 12-13 we followed the classic El Niño progression with El Niño conditions only present in the early fall. that SSW may delay the change of the pattern to closer to February 1, but that may turn out better for us in the long run because it would also extend the cold pattern into March, which is what happened in both 06-07 and 12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 17 hours ago, TriPol said: Are any of these storms potentially severe? Imagine a severe t storm warning... in January! we've had tornadoes in january and then a blizzard in february lol. They typically happen on long island in the morning after a warm frontal passage. also we had a major squall line and severe thunderstorms in Jan 96 are the big blizzard and then it was back to cold and snow at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 6degs. AN. EURO has No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 4" by the 20th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now