snowman19 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Still interested in the 8th, east based -NAO continues to trend stronger on Gfs. Could be a redeveloper, SNE and especially CNE look to benefit the most right now. East based -NAOs don’t help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 hours ago, NittanyWx said: By the way, for those of you who look at OLR, I don't think these screams that we're in P5 in a traditional sense right now. You've got dateline and W.Pac convection. What you haven't been able to do is shed Maritime continent convection. that convection is pumping the pac subtropical ridge and that keeps the flow across the ocean compressed. thus we can't get a s/w to wave break and get the -epo rolling 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: East based -NAOs don’t help us They sometimes do but west based is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, snowheavyattimes said: Maybe it’s my imagination but it seems like the crappy patterns last a lot longer than the great patterns. 7-10 weeks left before spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Animal said: 7-10 weeks left before spring. More than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: More than that Actually it is 10 weeks and 6 days until spring. Winter is sleeping in at this point. Somebody poke her with a stick and get her going. At least get some cold nights so local ski areas can resurface their trails and get to 100% open. Anytime to get to January and you are not 100% open, it is troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 This looks like it will be among the warmest first 2 weeks of January during the 2010’s for the CONUS. Good thing this is an El Niño and not a La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: that convection is pumping the pac subtropical ridge and that keeps the flow across the ocean compressed. thus we can't get a s/w to wave break and get the -epo rolling Proof of being in a death spiral warm pattern. I found the source for your avatar, lol... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 51 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Actually it is 10 weeks and 6 days until spring. Winter is sleeping in at this point. Somebody poke her with a stick and get her going. At least get some cold nights so local ski areas can resurface their trails and get to 100% open. Anytime to get to January and you are not 100% open, it is troubling. It's only troubling for weenies, most of the general public is thrilled. The lack of bitter cold has been really nice. And we've been skunked before all or nothing style. Will this year become another 11/12 or 97/98, I don't think so, but we've had a good run recently and a poor winter wouldn't be surprising. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's only troubling for weenies, most of the general public is thrilled. The lack of bitter cold has been really nice. And we've been skunked before all or nothing style. Will this year become another 11/12 or 97/98, I don't think so, but we've had a good run recently and a poor winter wouldn't be surprising. I think most people would be happy if this winter did not deliver the big snow and cold that was forecasted. A quiet winter would be welcome by the majority I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 We've had plenty of cold Winters where it didn't snow much. Until we get some decent blocking established it's going to come down to getting lucky on some well timed shortwaves combined with influxes of colder air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 It's only January Plenty of winter left 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: This looks like it will be among the warmest first 2 weeks of January during the 2010’s for the CONUS. Good thing this is an El Niño and not a La Niña. From what I've been reading, we are technically in a neutral ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's only January Plenty of winter left Well it hasn't really started yet....( ya know what I mean ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:57 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: From what I've been reading, we are technically in a neutral ENSO. The temperature and 500 mb response for North America has been following the classic mild El Niño script since the beginning of December. Notice the heavy STJ rains over the Eastern US that is expected during an El Niño. But the strong STR north of Hawaii and fire hose PAC jet has had more of a La Niña flavor. This is MJO and possibly +SOI related. One would expect to see the pattern turn colder on an El Niño track sometime between January 20th and February 1st. The mid month MJO verification will probably determine if the shift happens closer to the 20th or February 1st. Remember in 12-13 we followed the classic El Niño progression with El Niño conditions only present in the early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18z NAM really backed off on the strength of the convection for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 45 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Proof of being in a death spiral warm pattern. I found the source for your avatar, lol... A Meteorologists advice to the Weather Worn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: The temperature and 500 mb response for North America has been following the classic mild El Niño script since the beginning of December. Notice the heavy STJ rains over the Eastern US that is expected during an El Niño. But the strong STR north of Hawaii and fire hose PAC jet has had more of a La Niña flavor. This is MJO and possibly +SOI related. One would expect to see the pattern turn colder on an El Niño track sometime between January 20th and February 1st. The mid month MJO verification will probably determine if the shift happens closer to the 20th of February 1st. Remember in 12-13 we followed the classic El Niño progression with El Niño conditions only present in the early fall. This is now the second mention of the month of February being the timing Winter might come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Proof of being in a death spiral warm pattern. I found the source for your avatar, lol... Time for @forkyfork to change it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 It's already noticeably lighter at this hour then it was even a week ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: I think most people would be happy if this winter did not deliver the big snow and cold that was forecasted. A quiet winter would be welcome by the majority I believe The general populous maybe...certainly not by us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, doncat said: The general populous maybe...certainly not by us here. I agree with your statement. Just my belief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, doncat said: The general populous maybe...certainly not by us here. What I miss most about this year is the lack of threats to follow. For me the model watching and anticipation are the real thrill. The actual snow is nice, but I'm over it pretty quickly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM really backed off on the strength of the convection for Saturday. Yup, will probably see significant run-to-run differences continue. 18Z RGEM (below) and GFS coming in w/ a 2"+ QPF max near the city. The synoptic features are all similar enough, just a matter of where the forcing is able to take advantage of the lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Coastalwx Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Coastalwx Weeklies gone wild week 3. +PNA/-EPO and -NAO. Wonder if that is too quick? Either way, that's refreshing to see. just 21 short days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: just 21 short days away! You are a negative nelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: You are a negative nelly learn from prior years bud. Sure it's exciting to see, but the weeklies have had the goods in the LR for about a month now with little movement forward. First it was 12/20, then 1/1 then 1/15 and now we're pushing towards 2/1... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Polar Vortex is about to split into 3 pieces https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Polar Vortex is about to split into 3 pieces https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html anyone who throws in the towel on this winter is wrong to do so for a number of reasons - here are a few 1. Too early in the season to do so. 2. SSW's have been associated with an increase of winter storms a few weeks after they occur -that article has a few examples. 3. If you look back at snowfall records for NYC each time we had more then 6 inches of snow in November - we had much above normal snowfall for the season. 4. Modoki El NIno's have a history of producing above normal snowfall in the region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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