January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[bluewave]

Near record high temperatures in the upper 50’s to start off the new year.

[dWave]

Temps continue to rise, up to 59 now

[Byrdhousebv]

.98" yesterday

Today:

5:00 AM T-63  DP-60.3

9:00 AM T-61.2  DP-51,3

[donsutherland1]

The first changes are beginning to occur even ahead of the larger pattern change. The SOI was -7.30. That was its lowest figure since November 19 when it was -7.51. Today also marked the 2nd consecutive day on which the SOI was negative for the first time since November 18-19.

Once the MJO moves into Phase 6--something that is likely in the next two days--following the December record 13-consecutive days in Phase 5 (through December 30), the pattern change will be drawing closer.

As it moves further in Phase 7, Atlantic blocking will become increasingly likely. For the third consecutive day, the GEFS show strong agreement among its ensemble members for the development of a sustained negative AO (which would have wintry implications both for North America and Europe).

For the next 7-10 days, though, the apparent weather will remain generally warmer than normal. No moderate or larger snowstorms are likely in and around the New York City area through January 10.

[NEG NAO]

[CIK62]

Latest EURO WEEKLIES delay the BN by a full two weeks, to the 25th.

[Cfa]

60 degrees. 

[MJO812]

Gefs and geps look good

Eps seems too warm despite the euro mjo being favorable.

Mjo is moving along now

We all have to have patience

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The mjo now goes into 7 8 and then cod. It's correcting on the euro. I would take these with a grain of salt since it looks like it doesn't have a handle.

[bluewave]

60 degrees in Wantagh now with the mild offshore flow.

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 4 sw: apparent CFP with pretty sharp td drop, big increase in gusts past 30 MPH at this 740'MSL location. Max G so far 37 MPH at 1010AM. Max T was 55.8 ~809A.  Will only post again on wind ob, if exceed 45MPH.

[psv88]

60 degrees

[Brasiluvsnow]

A few of you have mentioned SOI can someone explain what that is and how it effects us ? Thanx

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

A few of you have mentioned SOI can someone explain what that is and how it effects us ? Thanx

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of the intensity or strength of the Walker Circulation. It is one of the key atmospheric indices for gauging the strength of El Niño and La Niña events and their potential impacts .

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/soi.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Good news is the ECMWF MJO plot goes into favorable phases. With the GEFS and GEPS it does seem like a flip is in order, timeframe probably delayed in EPS world. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The first changes are beginning to occur even ahead of the larger pattern change. The SOI was -7.30. That was its lowest figure since November 19 when it was -7.51. Today also marked the 2nd consecutive day on which the SOI was negative for the first time since November 18-19.

Once the MJO moves into Phase 6--something that is likely in the next two days--following the December record 13-consecutive days in Phase 5 (through December 30), the pattern change will be drawing closer.

As it moves further in Phase 7, Atlantic blocking will become increasingly likely. For the third consecutive day, the GEFS show strong agreement among its ensemble members for the development of a sustained negative AO (which would have wintry implications both for North America and Europe).

For the next 7-10 days, though, the apparent weather will remain generally warmer than normal. No moderate or larger snowstorms are likely in and around the New York City area through January 10.

The Euro weeklies (IF correct) have it above normal until January 15th, then start the pattern change transition January 15th and it’s complete by January 21st. The pattern finally goes below normal come January 21st or shortly thereafter and beyond, again if the ECMWF weeklies are indeed correct, I guess we’ll see

[donsutherland1]

Some patience is needed. The first week of January will likely be exceptionally warm (probably among the 15-20 warmest starts to January in the region). The second week could be cooler, but probably still warmer than normal, as the MJO moves into Phase  7. It’s afterward where the potential for a more dramatic turn to colder weather could occur, as happened in 1966 and 2005, should sustained Atlantic blocking develop. But that’s way in the future so we’ll have to see how things evolve.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some patience is needed. The first week of January will likely be exceptionally warm (probably among the 15-20 warmest starts to January in the region). The second week could be cooler, but probably still warmer than normal, as the MJO moves into Phase  7. It’s afterward where the potential for a more dramatic turn to colder weather could occur, as happened in 1966 and 2005 should sustained Atlantic blocking develop. But that’s way in the future so we’ll have to see how things evolve.

[SnowGoose69]

Some excitement possible Thursday morning.  Mostly inland.  The coast isn’t as lousy boundary layer wise as during the 12/24 event and this one could have more juice too. I’m not totally ruling out accumulation close to the coast just yet 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Way different than the gfs

[bluewave]

Looks like LGA tied the record high for January 1st.

LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY   60  

1/1

60 in 1966

60 In 2018

58 in 2005

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some patience is needed. The first week of January will likely be exceptionally warm (probably among the 15-20 warmest starts to January in the region). The second week could be cooler, but probably still warmer than normal, as the MJO moves into Phase  7. It’s afterward where the potential for a more dramatic turn to colder weather could occur, as happened in 1966 and 2005, should sustained Atlantic blocking develop. But that’s way in the future so we’ll have to see how things evolve.

Right. It looks above normal until the 21st. I think the big question is and Snowgoose brought this up the other day, once the pattern change occurs, does it go cold and dry/suppressed? Eventually Mother Nature is going to turn the faucet off. Especially if we have a TPV dropping south, cold and dry may be a definite risk, especially for awhile after the change. Law of averages, we can’t keep a wet pattern like this forever, even with an active STJ

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right. It looks above normal until the 21st. I think the big question is and Snowgoose brought this up the other day, once the pattern change occurs, does it go cold and dry/suppressed? Eventually Mother Nature is going to turn the faucet off. Especially if we have a TPV dropping south, cold and dry may be a definite risk, especially for awhile after the change. Law of averages, we can’t keep a wet pattern like this forever, even with an active STJ

21st? Seems late

I like around the 10-15.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right. It looks above normal until the 21st. I think the big question is and Snowgoose brought this up the other day, once the pattern change occurs, does it go cold and dry/suppressed? Eventually Mother Nature is going to turn the faucet off. Especially if we have a TPV dropping south, cold and dry may be a definite risk, especially for awhile after the change. Law of averages, we can’t keep a wet pattern like this forever, even with an active STJ

It probably ends up turning before 1/20.  Especially now that the Euro seems to have moved towards the phase 8 idea and is probably still underdone.  It may be a transient better period but I wouldn’t be surprised if 1/10-1/20 averages near normal with a snow event 

[snowman19]

Just now, Snow88 said:

21st? Seems late

I like around the 10-15.

The Euro has us in transition 1/15-1/21, still not yet a cold pattern during that transition period. I like that timing, I think it really does take until about the 21st or so before we are in a solid below normal regime

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right. It looks above normal until the 21st. I think the big question is and Snowgoose brought this up the other day, once the pattern change occurs, does it go cold and dry/suppressed? Eventually Mother Nature is going to turn the faucet off. Especially if we have a TPV dropping south, cold and dry may be a definite risk, especially for awhile after the change. Law of averages, we can’t keep a wet pattern like this forever, even with an active STJ

Big changes from a wet to dry regime or vice versa are difficult to forecast with much confidence. Eventually, things will become drier. 

[bluewave]

The 12z GEFS finally caved to the milder EPS day 6-10. Notice how much the GEFS has been struggling with the fire hose Pacific Jet. You will know a pattern change is finally at hand when the day 6-10 stops correcting milder.

New run

Old run

[qg_omega]

EPS is leading the way here and it's much different than the GEFS

[MJO812]

Judah is very optimistic about the vortex splitting very soon and  that winter lovers should start being happy.

[MJO812]

Nice little snow event from NYC north for the 8th on the euro.