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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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15 hours ago, dryslot said:

I was closer to my december climo in November, And i'm closer to my Nov climo in december, So its like the 2 mos were flip flopped.

November had 3" more snow than my Dec avg, and this current event finally got my Dec snow above the Novie avg.  :P
Both months will finish BN for temps, Nov by 5.5° and Dec probably about -2 once I interpolate the data I missed while in SNJ - was running nearly 6° BN thru the 17th.

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think we need to see deeper into January before get worried. Honestly, this is eerily similar to 2014-2015 in a lot of ways...in fact, December was colder and had more opportunities than 2014 did, but we whiffed on them so we ended up with similar near-zero snowfall that 2014 had.

Early January 2015 had big arctic cold shots mixed with torching cutters....the pattern was changing, but we were still getting on the wrong side of the initial arctic gradient...i.e., chaos continued to conspire against us even though we probably could have easily gotten a nice SWFE if the nuances lined up correctly.

Finally the PNA ridge established itself further east by late January and we were off to the races. Again, I'm not predicting we will repeat that 100" in 3 weeks type insanity...but even a much toned down version (like 50" in 5 weeks) would obviously completely change the tenor of the winter. I don't see signs of failure yet in the progression. If it starts showing up, I'm definitely going to post my concerns.

Wasn’t 14-15 helped in large part by the very ++PDO? If I remember correctly, I think the PDO was well over +2 for Jan-Mar, 2015. It’s nowhere near that positive now 

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Wasn’t 14-15 helped in large part by the very ++PDO? If I remember correctly, I think the PDO was well over +2 for Jan-Mar, 2015. It’s nowhere near that positive now 

I'm sure it helped some...but honestly, the GOA temps weren't that different...the bigger difference was deeper cold to the SW and 2015 also had a ton of warmth of California...and I think it's somewhat overrated anyway. We've seen prolific 2nd half Ninos with only marginal positive PDOs (1978, 2005, 1958...and 1969 actually had a negative PDO)

 

But here's the MJO progression in 2015...red is January....you can actually see a pretty similar path being progged (esp by the Euro).

 

 

201501.phase.90days.gif

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 And notice it wasn’t strong on that diagram. It was perfect. 

I still don’t see a huge reason to panic. It seems like things are more favorable after 1-7 or so. Maybe it waits a few days later, but overall that seems to be when things get better. 

Nobody would be panicking either if we just happened to score a couple overrunning events out of this two week period between 12/22-1/6....which definitely could have happened (see 12/31-1/1 setup tweaked slightly...or even today). The panic gets louder when the snow doesn't fall...it has nothing to do with the actual pattern as history has shown us ala January 2015 and January 2013.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody would be panicking either if we just happened to score a couple overrunning events out of this two week period between 12/22-1/6....which definitely could have happened (see 12/31-1/1 setup tweaked slightly...or even today). The panic gets louder when the snow doesn't fall...it has nothing to do with the actual pattern as history has shown us ala January 2015 and January 2013.

Yeah some bad luck with a dash of bad pattern. It happens. 

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Our first chance at an inch of snow looks to come the beginning of the New Year's Day storm, front end accumulating snows, as a warming airmass with a warm front approaching with precipitation hits the cold air remaining with the high to the northeast not ready to budge.  Could be interesting, as the track of the storm is not that far to the north of the MA pike region.

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11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Our first chance at an inch of snow looks to come the beginning of the New Year's Day storm, front end accumulating snows, as a warming airmass with a warm front approaching with precipitation hits the cold air remaining with the high to the northeast not ready to budge.  Could be interesting, as the track of the storm is not that far to the north of the MA pike region.

Easy on the pre NYE champagne there bud. 

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