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January 2019 Discussion


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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I've learned that in past seasons... in NNE it's definitely harder to catch up to climo than in SNE.  Luckily up this way we had a huge November and have at least had some snow in December.  

The NNE zone southeast of the mountains though is another story but I'm not as well versed in that climo from like LEW to CON area.

I was closer to my december climo in November, And i'm closer to my Nov climo in december, So its like the 2 mos were flip flopped.

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Actually, within the next 8-10 days, the pattern changes aloft on most guidance, with the exception of the GFS operational model, the rest of the guidance suite agrees that a major coastal storm looks to impact the region in the day 10-11 timeframe.  The GEFS mean has a low near the Bahamas phase with the clipper around the 5-7th of January 2019.

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Huge vortex gets established over the Siberian side of the arctic ocean in the medium range...that's whats helping the AO go up. I posted this a couple daysago, but it still holds true....doesn't help either that one of the PV lobes is down near Baffin Island...that is right in the AO domain.

 

IMG_2274.PNG.676c2d12dc98dcd5d3f02cece48b6626.PNG

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Huge vortex gets established over the Siberian side of the arctic ocean in the medium range...that's whats helping the AO go up. I posted this a couple daysago, but it still holds true....doesn't help either that one of the PV lobes is down near Baffin Island...that is right in the AO domain.

 

IMG_2274.PNG.676c2d12dc98dcd5d3f02cece48b6626.PNG

If my memory is serving me well , Ventrice mentioned something similar during the last week or so.  I think at some point some individuals may just have to consider that the winter doesn't take a turn for the better for SNE. My expectations for this winter were and continue to be on the low side due to the El Nino. Currently SNE is finishing up one of it's least snowiest Decembers on record.  And the pattern during the next couple of weeks doesn't look all that promising. It is within the realm of possibility that come mid January that parts of SNE has record low snowfall totals from 12/1 - 1/15. At this point the winter is beginning to resemble a stock in which there is far more downside than there is upside. 

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22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

If my memory is serving me well , Ventrice mentioned something similar during the last week or so.  I think at some point some individuals may just have to consider that the winter doesn't take a turn for the better for SNE. My expectations for this winter were and continue to be on the low side due to the El Nino. Currently SNE is finishing up one of it's least snowiest Decembers on record.  And the pattern during the next couple of weeks doesn't look all that promising. It is within the realm of possibility that come mid January that parts of SNE has record low snowfall totals from 12/1 - 1/15. At this point the winter is beginning to resemble a stock in which there is far more downside than there is upside. 

I think we need to see deeper into January before get worried. Honestly, this is eerily similar to 2014-2015 in a lot of ways...in fact, December was colder and had more opportunities than 2014 did, but we whiffed on them so we ended up with similar near-zero snowfall that 2014 had.

Early January 2015 had big arctic cold shots mixed with torching cutters....the pattern was changing, but we were still getting on the wrong side of the initial arctic gradient...i.e., chaos continued to conspire against us even though we probably could have easily gotten a nice SWFE if the nuances lined up correctly.

Finally the PNA ridge established itself further east by late January and we were off to the races. Again, I'm not predicting we will repeat that 100" in 3 weeks type insanity...but even a much toned down version (like 50" in 5 weeks) would obviously completely change the tenor of the winter. I don't see signs of failure yet in the progression. If it starts showing up, I'm definitely going to post my concerns.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What an awful pattern on the gfs

Pattern gets alot better on the cmc by the 7th.

People are jumping off cliffs everywhere.

Original forecasts for this winter was for a crappy December

 

gfs looks like crap in the LR.. for sure.. if we use the GFS and GEFS pattern is still not there by mid January.. 

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What an awful pattern on the gfs

Pattern gets alot better on the cmc by the 7th.

People are jumping off cliffs everywhere.

Original forecasts for this winter was for a crappy December

 

The 7th is too early. Mid month looks more accurate but who knows what the SOI/MJO will do. 

The SOI Spike and latest MJO are definitely concerning. At the very least this will delay any pattern change. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 2/3 of Jan. 

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