USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 We have a favorable +PNA pattern developing towards the New year and into the first few weeks at least of January. 2013-2014 winter was more active than I originally thought, it has nothing to do with the ENSO discussion currently, just an interesting fact, I found fascinating since my recollection of that winter was that we had many nor'easters track about 200 miles southeast of the benchmark, but we did have some big storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 These are the SST anomalies for December 24th, 2018, the whole Pacific Basin is in a warm episode along the equator, to my knowledge, these ENSO events take a while to mature within the atmospheric dynamics, like a whole month of behind schedule sort of thing, given it is a basin-wide event and not a localized event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 The Gulf stream positive anomalies are also somewhat suppressed currently if we were to look up an SST anomaly map from the Blizzard Juno time frame, the Gulf Stream would be further northwest, closer to the benchmark location, allowing the storm track to follow it more northeastward, than eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Euro op doing a 12/24/94 dance d9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro op doing a 12/24/94 dance d9. Refresh my memory...I recall 94-95 as a big-time ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Refresh my memory...I recall 94-95 as a big-time ratter. Christmas Eve hybrid nor’easter with rain at all elevations in all of New England. Yes it was a major ratter and I’m not really thinking we’re going there...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is a really nice EPS from 12z. There is still a vortex over the pole, but it is showing signs of getting squashed. +PNA, split flow, and some ridging into Greenland are all showing up: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 The look in the LR has been there, oscillating some....so we just need to toss the current year calendars on our walls, that’s all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Weeklies look good. I’ll stick to post 1/7....maybe 1/10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies look good. I’ll stick to post 1/7....maybe 1/10. Yep -NAO and eventually +PNA/-EPO by mid month. Should be a very good couple months coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Yep -NAO and eventually +PNA/-EPO by mid month. Should be a very good couple months coming up 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies look good. I’ll stick to post 1/7....maybe 1/10. I know subject to change, however, do we go into a "relaxed" period end of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies look good. I’ll stick to post 1/7....maybe 1/10. Running in shorts and tees a real possibility a few times before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Running in shorts and tees a real possibility a few times before then. If you like cold rain running you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, 512high said: I know subject to change, however, do we go into a "relaxed" period end of January? I posted in the wrong thread. Earthlights interpretation of the Weeklies over at 33andrain https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1520-eastern-us-dec-2018-consolidated-discussion-obs/?do=findComment&comment=113318 earthlight said: ECMWF WEEKLIES 12/27 REVIEW (NORTHEAST US) .....very impressed at first look WEEK 1 | Hints of SE Ridging, Cold Air into Central US, -NAO Temps: Above Normal Precip: Above Normal Change: Slightly Warmer WEEK 2 | Major W NHEM Ridging, Troughing into East Temps: Below Normal Precip: Normal Change: Slightly Colder WEEK 3 | -EPO and -AO Develops, More Troughing in East Temps: Below Normal Precip: Normal Change: Much Colder WEEK 4 | Poleward -EPO Continues, -NAO Develops Temps: Below Normal Precip: Above Normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, 512high said: I know subject to change, however, do we go into a "relaxed" period end of January? Stretch, hot tub, sleep. Anytime of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If you like cold rain running you are right I’ll be running in shorts on Saturday morning and NYD morning if the rain stops in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I’ll be running in shorts on Saturday morning and NYD morning if the rain stops in time. Meh-in my running days the shorts cutoff was 40F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Meh-in my running days the shorts cutoff was 40F Same here. I should clarify the above, shorts AND tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, 512high said: I know subject to change, however, do we go into a "relaxed" period end of January? If we relax end of Jan after just getting started, you can practically kiss a big season goodbye. It’s balls to the wall or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If we relax end of Jan after just getting started, you can practically kiss a big season goodbye. It’s balls to the wall or bust. understood just saw Ginx layout/chart......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, 512high said: understood just saw Ginx layout/chart......... No man, Just my opinion. We pray collectively the relaxing is over in 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No man, Just my opinion. We pray collectively the relaxing is over in 15 days. no all good! Hoping we sneak something soon, it is what it is.........we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 hours ago, 512high said: I know subject to change, however, do we go into a "relaxed" period end of January? We've been in a relaxed period since November, so that better not happen. At least give me a month of solid winter weather with a couple of decent snow events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No man, Just my opinion. We pray collectively the relaxing is over in 15 days. If there does end up being another relaxing after this potential period, You can probably kiss even a climo winter goodbye unless we have a huge Morch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: If there does end up being another relaxing after this potential period, You can probably kiss even a climo winter goodbye unless we have a huge Morch. Deff. Easier to normalize down here with one or two big events but up north...notsomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Deff. Easier to normalize down here with one or two big events but up north...notsomuch. I will need 50" from here on out to reach it here, Not impossible with a solid 2+ mos by any mean, But losing Dec usually will make it a little tougher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I will need 50" from here on out to reach it here, Not impossible with a solid 2+ mos by any mean, But losing Dec usually will make it a little tougher. well .I do commercial snow removal during the winter, and I still have pictures on my iPhone Jan-Feb- 2015.....I was begging for it to stop! (lol), and if I remember Dec-14 started slow......(I think), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, 512high said: well .I do commercial snow removal during the winter, and I still have pictures on my iPhone Jan-Feb- 2015.....I was begging for it to stop! (lol), and if I remember Dec-14 started slow......(I think), '14-'15 is definitely the best comp for those trying to flip the switch from a brutal December snowfall-wise. It's obviously unrealistic to expect that same outcome but we would still achieve a very good season if we got 60-70% of what happened that year after mid-January. Even getting half of the snowfall would put most areas above average for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Deff. Easier to normalize down here with one or two big events but up north...notsomuch. Yeah I've learned that in past seasons... in NNE it's definitely harder to catch up to climo than in SNE. Luckily up this way we had a huge November and have at least had some snow in December. The NNE zone southeast of the mountains though is another story but I'm not as well versed in that climo from like LEW to CON area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Geez, we get a good (great) report on the weeklies, why all the fretting about a relaxation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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