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January 2019 Discussion

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4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues 

nam3km_z500_vort_neus_fh26_trend.gif.a6d1c85e81dd55d8d2658eb79c942880.gif

I saw the EPS has some snow getting up to long island as well....last second hail Mary for a coating to an inch?

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The snow maps mean absolutely nothing at this time range. 

Yeah definitely, neither do Day 7-10 op runs.  

It is interesting the differences between vendors though.  

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6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I saw the EPS has some snow getting up to long island as well....last second hail Mary for a coating to an inch?

Keep in mind that if the drunk member gives an inch of qpf and the other 50 members zilch the mean world show that.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AMOUT

As expected a crock of sh it by a Union Steward, read this

Dr. Neil Jacobs is deputy administrator with NOAA

Accurate weather forecasts are one of the most important functions the federal government provides to Americans. During the recent partial lapse in appropriations, the National Weather Service (NWS) has continued to perform this critical function with no degradation in forecast skill or model performance.

Excepted NWS employees are working tirelessly on mission-essential functions to protect life and property, and all of the resources needed to support the operational models and services continue to be available.

The NWS, which is the operational forecasting division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, provides products and services to protect lives and property. The flagship weather model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), is the key driver of these products and services.

The ability to predict the future state of the atmosphere weeks in advance, through a set of mathematical equations that describe chaotic fluid motion, is one of the greatest achievements in modern-day science. In order to predict what the weather will be in the weeks ahead, tens of millions of atmospheric and marine observations are collected daily from around the planet and satellites in space.

Determining the current state of the atmosphere is a very complex process requiring massive supercomputers to run model code. The goal is to find a single right answer out of an infinite number of incorrect possibilities. This is done four times a day by NWS. While this is truly a monumental achievement, there is a vast amount of research yet to be done to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting.

A phenomenon in the GFS, known as forecast skill  “dropout,” has recently been cited as evidence that the current partial lapse in appropriations is causing the NWS forecasts to become worse. These dropouts are a known self-correcting problem that occur once or twice a month and result in a 10-20 percent decrease in accuracy of the 5-to-10 day forecast. The model typically takes a day or two to return to its normal level of accuracy, as was the case with the dropout that occurred on Dec. 21.

Model accuracy ebbs and flows as a function of complex weather patterns. The decrease in accuracy around Dec. 25 was neither a dropout nor unexpected, and a similar trend was seen in the well-regarded European model. The fact that the accuracy was above average during the 10-day span prior to this shift gave the appearance of decreased performance.

Contrary to statements seen in the press, NWS employees do not just go in and “fix” model code every time there is a dropout. The production code is locked down, and upgrades are performed on a systematic basis. Proper evaluation of forecast model skill requires a very methodical approach, and conclusive results are obtained by monitoring statistics over months to years, not daily or even weekly fluctuations.

The Department of Commerce, working in a bipartisan fashion with Congress, has made improving the GFS accuracy one of its highest priorities. A significant amount of funding, made available in the 2018 hurricane disaster supplemental appropriations, was directed to improving data assimilation and mitigating dropouts.

Additionally, a tremendous amount of effort has gone into the development of the next-generation global forecasting system, the Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3), which will be the most significant upgrade to the dynamic core of the GFS since 1980. Development work on implementing this upgrade will continue following the end of the partial lapse in funding.

 

On Jan. 7, President Trump signed into law the National Integrated Drought Information System Reauthorization Act. This bipartisan legislation reauthorizes key sections of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017. Additionally, it establishes the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, which will serve as the virtual hub for development of a community FV3-GFS.

This effort will leverage recent advancements in cloud-based high-performance computing, and partnerships with industry and academia, to enhance NWS prediction capabilities.

I would like to express my deepest appreciation to all of the NWS employees who have been working tirelessly. It is an honor to help lead an organization of individuals with such dedication to the mission of protecting life and property.

https://www.postandcourier.com/opinion/commentary/weather-prediction-still-accurate-even-during-shutdown/article_6944faba-15d3-11e9-96ea-b79ddbf38e0b.html

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

As far as I can tell Kevin is a Trump supporter but he wants to blame progged rainers on the shut down....lol.

Either way the GFS sucks. I do laugh at the people who live in gated walled communities or homes who come out with hypocritical statements.  Its complex but I say declare a state of emergency, get everyone back to work and let the courts decide. Sorry for the OT

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Yeah ginxy that matches what I had heard. The degradation was mostly coincidental timing. I had heard there was a change in the way data was assimilated but that wouldn't be related to any shutdown. Either way the recent rebound in score sort of puts the argument to rest. If there were serious data problems it would just keep degrading. 

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54 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We snow in KC

Really surprised at Indy's ineptness so far.  Not over by any means, but doesn't look good for a Foxboro snowbowl next week if the Pats get by the Chargers.

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I looked at the mean where the hell did those who said 15 inch mean come from. I see 5 to 8. By the way Bri, it will change and I would take the over but the Euro has a -2/-5 for CON on the 21st. 

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18z GFS is hedging back toward more compression/wave damping ...  The whole run appears sped up with wind velocities and bit more gradient saturated then the last two cycles.  ... I mean, unfortunately, that's part of the possibilities over next weekend. I mentioned it earlier, so it's good to get an example of this out of the way early - and hope it really does stay 'out of the way' ... but I'm leery of this PV up N acting too weighty and squeezing the flow ...

One thing I do want to point out is that the 582 dm isotach is S of Florida and the wind velocities are ~ 30 kts.  Although there is a fast flow in some GFS runs overall... should the western ridge pop better there could be deeper dive back east with less absorption/adding back to storm potential.  Any such system would be moving right along..

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19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

Sorry meant 21z RAP run.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

18z GFS is hedging back toward more compression/wave damping ... 

For the sanity of the board, the 18z GFS would push many over the edge.  Sharp snowfall gradient at the Mass border...

The law of averages says something has to happen in SNE.  It's a wintry climate, I mean one of these has to deliver down south.

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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

Don't do this to yourself. 

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11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

19z RAP brings a deformation snow band over the Cape and Islands and the South Coast tomorrow.  Still not out of the woods for my area tomorrow.  The northern stream shi*streak is moving out of the area quicker and quicker each successive model run.  Especially on the HIRES guidance, as well as the southern stream system consolidating south of the area, and off the NJ coast.

Start a separate delusional cj thread.

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