Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 That mega bomb in the LR has at least been hinted at in one guise or another on the modeling for several days now. Strong s/w traverses the pole, rounds the PV and dive into the U.S. hard. Anyway, no reason to put much weight behind it, but interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Then a Tippy Cleveland superbomb. Jokes aside ... it's been popping up occasionally ... and there's enough ensemble member suggestion for the next bit of amplitude to watch around the 24th/25th ... while would be the 41st anniversary to a very close approximation ironically.. In any case, I am actually more intrigued for that time range for a purer formatted "snow" chance ... where and when exactly TBD - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Para gfs is very snowy through 300 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: That mega bomb in the LR has at least been hinted at in one guise or another on the modeling for several days now. Strong s/w traverses the pole, rounds the PV and dive into the U.S. hard. Anyway, no reason to put much weight behind it, but interesting to watch. Heh - you beat me by a single post yeah... it's a period of important amplitude I suspect... It's waaay out there. But just about every member of the GEFs carries either an event or a trough flex ... indicative of favorability in the overall numerical guidance coverage. Usually important eras show up at extended leads because their presence ...however emergent, are either already detectable ...or the domain in question is exceptionally prone to something evolving given time - either way... The "already detectable" variety is usually < D10 however.. So, we'll see... The EPS is in the throws of a pattern that's not antithetical too... This could all mean anything - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Jokes aside ... it's been popping up occasionally ... and there's enough ensemble member suggestion for the next bit of amplitude to watch around the 24th/25th ... while would be the 41st anniversary to a very close approximation ironically.. In any case, I am actually more intrigued for that time range for a purer formatted "snow" chance ... where and when exactly TBD - This is the only anniversary I wish to repeat at this point. 8 years ago tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Where can I harvest the individual EPS panels? I have weathermodels.com, weatherbell has an easier format to use. But I can't stand Bastardi so I refuse to support him, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: This is the only anniversary I wish to repeat at this point. 8 years ago tonight First time I ever stayed up all night for a snowstorm. 27". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GEFS looks good for next weekend.. good long lead time to track.. I think we are in business.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: SW CT FTL Looks like the haves/have-nots line runs right across the summit of Mount Tolland. 29 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Cleveland Steamer Edmund Fitzgerald special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Based on the FV3 maps in the MA forum, must be something akin to 1888 in there. 36-48"+ up the HV, western CT, western Mass, VT. Haven't seen the run yet, so can't confirm. Still, active and potentially fun period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Based on the FV3 maps in the MA forum, must be something akin to 1888 in there. 36-48"+ up the HV, western CT, western Mass, VT. Haven't seen the run yet, so can't confirm. Still, active and potentially fun period coming up. Here's the snow chart off the eval site....breath taking totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, WeatherX said: Here's the snow chart off the eval site....breath taking totals Wish that model didn't suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 broken models without current upper air data. Wish they were right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Wish that model didn't suck. Yeah there's that. Take away I think is the possibility exists at least in fantasy land for some extreme totals.....we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, WeatherX said: Yeah there's that. Take away I think is the possibility exists at least in fantasy land for some extreme totals.....we will see. Hey John.. where you been the last couple years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hey John.. where you been the last couple years? I've been around Kev. Just mostly lurking here, reading more, posting less Also, lot's of other priorities cutting into my hobby. All good though. Trust you are well? Let's rock and roll baby with some winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: Based on the FV3 maps in the MA forum, must be something akin to 1888 in there. 36-48"+ up the HV, western CT, western Mass, VT. Haven't seen the run yet, so can't confirm. Still, active and potentially fun period coming up. That’s a 93 redux. Son of a gfs doing the usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, WeatherX said: I've been around Kev. Just mostly lurking here, reading more, posting less Also, lot's of other priorities cutting into my hobby. All good though. Trust you are well? Let's rock and roll baby with some winter weather! Doing well . I’ve seen on FB you’ve been busy . Congrats! You talk to LL at all? Seems like winter has arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Can we just take the FV3? I will pay 1,000 for someone to make it work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Can we just take the FV3? I will pay 1,000 for someone to make it work. Most of that is sleet/ice for us but whatever. Means nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, Hoth said: First time I ever stayed up all night for a snowstorm. 27". @Damage In Tolland slept 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I believe the models won't have a clear solution for a long time given the past history of this year, and until the American models get the data they need, no trusting them. Anyone know why the SREFs mean is so off compared to other guidance? Is that suffering from the government shutdown as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe the models won't have a clear solution for a long time given the past history of this year, and until the American models get the data they need, no trusting them. Anyone know why the SREFs mean is so off compared to other guidance? Is that suffering from the government shutdown as well? Because the srefs are their own level of suckage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe the models won't have a clear solution for a long time given the past history of this year, and until the American models get the data they need, no trusting them. Anyone know why the SREFs mean is so off compared to other guidance? Is that suffering from the government shutdown as well? They suffer from just being themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe the models won't have a clear solution for a long time given the past history of this year, and until the American models get the data they need, no trusting them. Anyone know why the SREFs mean is so off compared to other guidance? Is that suffering from the government shutdown as well? I think that can be said of any situation 8 days out. As far as your question about the SREF, that's reason to want the shut-down to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Most of that is sleet/ice for us but whatever. Means nada. Hilarious storm on that model, it is like 5-10 degrees here and sleeting, while DC is shoveling feet of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 They don't just suck, there is a reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I want a superstorm 93 redux, except about 100 miles further east, like on the benchmark for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 56 minutes ago, dendrite said: Next weekend is on my radar, but I just can’t get excited about any fantasy modeled after that. I guess a stormy LR is good, but that’s all I take from that. Weenie d12 clown maps make me yawn. I usually don't comment in any long term threads. I'm like a horse with those side blinders on. I only look out to day 5 to perhaps day 7. In any event people have been honking the upcoming period for along time. Hope SNE now gets there share and more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I want a superstorm 93 redux, except about 100 miles further east, like on the benchmark for once. Oh so Jan 05 and Jan 15 weren’t good enough for you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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