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January 2019 Discussion

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Already huge differences at D6 between 12z Euro and 00z Euro.

EPO ridge is a lot more amped and PV further south....should probably give us a better look for 1/19-20. BTW, I'm not saying this is correct....but I think this is a good lesson for those who want to understand how much the PV placement can change the look and also how much the placement of these features can change from run to run.

I think we finally catch a break with this one.  Maybe it only breaks 60-70% our way this time, but chances abound afterward.  

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guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious.    

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious  

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

"Supernatural rapey"  -Dr. Tip

LOL

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was a huge weenie run this cycle....exceptionally active northern stream in a meridional flow. It's a good setup for miller Bs. Hopefully EPS follows suit...it was a bit flatter at 00z (still a solid pattern, but not like a 12z GEFS)

Can you post a h5 map pointing to this maradona flow? I need to visualize at h5, preferably with arrows, I like arrows. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious.    

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

You kind of miss the point here John.

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7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

"Supernatural rapey"  -Dr. Tip

LOL

haha...  That was all sardonic snark just in case...  

Yeah, I mean... I do agree that loading cold into Canada is good... I said that earlier... I'll say it again... having -20 C at 850 slabbed over the continent, with periodic -30 C plumes rattlin' around inside isn't a bad table setting..

no.. 

But, I'd like to see the gradient relax ...a little. It certainly is a tantalizing look having the hornet sting ready to roll through southern California mid way through the Euro run though... But the GFS had that two.. and ended up having to smear it into an ice storm... 

 

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

You kind of miss the point here John.

nah... don't read in.  that's all assholier than thou bs intended for trollic commiseration.

 

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you know ... if you take the 24 hour panel, ...amplified the shit out of it... you'd end up with something eerily similar to the D9 panel... 

that is pattern persistence incarnate... Moreover, you could argue based upon the Euro's native bias complexion...that it's too amplified perhaps some... so what - we end up right back her in a week staring at the same damn scenario. 

This is really turning into a spectator's Schadenfreudeian dream - muah hahahaha

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Just a 1001mb low with no phase this run, Not that it matters much but may be better if you get a partial rather then a full phaser if your looking for all snow right now verbatim.

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Can you post a h5 map pointing to this maradona flow? I need to visualize at h5, preferably with arrows, I like arrows. 

Here isD6 compared on the two runs....you can see how the ridge is more amplified and a little further east on the 12z run....and because of that, the flow is more meridional to the east of it versus the 00z run where it kind of bends back to the west somewhat. You can see the PV bulging back to the west some on the 00z run because of that.

 

 

Jan11_Eurocompare.png

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The cold going forward should not be an issue as there looks to be plenty nearby.

Looks like a decent stretch...part 1 locking into place... now we need the storms to march

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Looks like a decent stretch...part 1 locking into place... now we need the storms to march

And that part looks to be there as well, I'm thinking the waiting for some will be over and i may go from nickels and dimes to qtrs and halves.

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So basically shortwaves don’t crash into the ridge southwestward but instead gently slide down the ridge southeastward like a happy toddler? We have that problem with the current non event. 

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious.    

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

I'd actually like to conduct a study re "substance abusers" and "weather watchers," extreme atmospheric events do seem to relieve emotional pain for a portion of the population in the same way that certain substances fill the spiritual void many in the postmodern west are experiencing, the behavior profiles are eerily identical, pretty cool stuff

I lurk here often, but post seldom, as I recognize in myself the above mentioned trigger/feedback loop

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20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just a 1001mb low with no phase this run, Not that it matters much but may be better if you get a partial rather then a full phaser if your looking for all snow right now verbatim.

I don't think there's much phasing at all there D's 8 thru 10 of that run... 

Timing -wise?  yeah...they tend to move through the same longitudes together... but they are really bipassing and not "fusing" into one another ...which is really what phasing means.  So not even in the partial sense, is that very true with this solution.  Look at D10 ...the southern component of the total wave space parts company and starts diving S toward the outer Bahamas...while the northern component rips away toward NS...  See ya' ! 

Which by the way... that solution looks weird anyway... I almost think the flow has gotten so velocity saturated that even the Euro is having difficulty but... what am I saying - oy. It's D9/10

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4 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

I'd actually like to conduct a study re "substance abusers" and "weather watchers," extreme atmospheric events do seem to relieve emotional pain for a portion of the population in the same way that certain substances fill the spiritual void many in the postmodern west are experiencing, the behavior profiles are eerily identical, pretty cool stuff

Ha ha... don't be too convinced by my snark - I'm actually trolling and having fun with it in the spirit of commiseration... 

I know "some" of that is true... at least for me...  I used to get really down or up based upon weather channel screw ups when I was kid - that's how I know to recognize some of that going on in here as an adult.  But it's pretty harmless either way... I think I'd rather have people be "strung out" over a fubar modeling era than the same way over a Fentanyl

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1 hour ago, frd said:

I am bringing this great update over to the long range thread from @Isotherm  recently posted from 33andrain. 

Some of what Tom brings up is surprising to me, I admit.  

As always I appreciate the time needed for an update such as this. 

Posted 14 minutes ago

 

Significant caution needs to be exercised here, initially. The NAM modality shifted this past week courtesy of the strat-modulation [circa -2 SD now], and to a lesser extent, NAO diminution; however, there's been systemic, countervailing destructive interference, spasmodically this winter from the tropical Pacific which must be thoroughly recognized. The AO and NAO are modestly negative, but the NAO is not yet fully responding w/ a retrogressive Greenland block, due largely to unpropitious tropospheric receptivity via repeated diminutions in angular momentum and intermittent tropical forcing interference.

 

This present +ENSO event is now virtually gone -- SST's approaching neutral in ENSO region 3.4. Part of the reason why SOI responses have been meager, and the canonical walker cell has not been as robust as expected.

 

Further, the z50 QBO easterly shear stress and its influence on tropical forcing, coupled w/ the weaker El Nino event, and the SSW forcing, has allowed the MJO to circuit Nina-esque phases more frequently than I think most anticipated so far this winter.

 

Going forward, it's incontrovertible that the SSW-split has rendered the NAM altered, but lack of cooperation on the Pacific side has delayed significant winter storm opportunities on the East Coast. We are missing a favorable window this weekend - which is unfortunate - this weekend, w/ GWO/MJO circuits out of phases 8, 7, however, at least the Mid-west and Mid-Atlantic will be profiting from this recent pulse of felicitous tropical forcing.

 

Angular momentum declined once again over the recent week; however, we are reversing that now, with increase +EAMT, and we will see another modest +EAMT pulse this coming week which will further extend the Pacific jet January 15th-20th. Contemporaneously, the MJO will circuit back through phases 5-6-7 quite rapidly. Due to the torque and tropical forcing contributions, I would also anticipate the GWO to expeditiously circulate back toward phase 5/6 over the next week, and eventually back into 7 later this month.

 

This increase in equatorward momentum transport will alter the jet structure as we near January 20th. One will note on the h2 zonal wind maps on the EPS, the canonical "split" jet stream structure becomes much more evident after January 20th, and especially by Jan 22-24.

 

The significant Greenland blocking and concomitant stable PNA amplitude will occur when constructive interference finally realizes between the SSW after-effects, the GWO/AAM and the MJO. The pattern is now colder than normal, but this pattern truly elucidates strongly the importance of a semi-stable PNA structure for increased probabilities of the significant east coast winter storm. We are evolving toward a stable PNA structure, but not yet.

 

The SSW is already inducing benefits, but the recent AAM plummet implicates disconnect again right now (ephemerally). However, the AAM will increase and constructively interfere w/ the SSW going forward as extratropical torques improve. The MJO will adjunctively increase momentum over the next two weeks, but initially, as it traverses phase 5 in particular, energy may continue to bombard the West Coast such that it destructively interferes w/ stable PNA. Once the MJO pulse moves into phase 6, this will change - and MJO/GWO and SSW will all be acting in concert. This, to me, is probably after the 20th threat (closer to 22nd/23rd and onward).

 

To recapitulate:

 

-We miss another fairly conducive window this weekend, but other regions of the East receive a snowstorm

-The systemic issue so far this winter has not been the polar domain, but the Pacific domain, due in part to enhanced intraseasonal interference via a weaker +ENSO event than anyone anticipated [I thought about +0.8c trimonthly but it will be weaker], SSW enhancement, and less than optimal momentum responses

-the NAM/NAO have been and will remain negative, but the lack of a stable PNA implies a colder than normal pattern with reduced significant snow chance in the medium term initially

-the threat on the 20th may or may not produce, but there's a strong argument it doesn't, because the NAO has not properly retrogressed yet to countervail an unstable PNA, induced via unfavorable MJO passage

-equatorward momentum transport w/ increasing AAM, split flow regime begins after the 20th, and the MJO will thereafter constructively interfere too

-the stable PNA structure truly stabilizes 22nd+ 

 

Everything remains on track for a prolonged period of colder than normal and enhanced snow opportunities henceforth through winter. However, since we miss another favorable period this weekend, we're going to need to wait until revitalization of constructive interference once again. This may mean the initial short wave on the 20th/next weekend is rain followed by bitter cold. The 20th wave could set-up up the 50/50, further pump / retrogress the NAO as trop. forcing becomes improved, and PNA structure amplifies/stabilizes for the 22-23rd threat.

 

We've had a lot of poor luck snow wise this winter, and it's principally b/c of the Pacific domain, reverting frequently to Nina-esque proclivities.

 

 

 

Great post from Isotherm, posted by another person, posted in another thread.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... don't be too convinced by my snark - I'm actually trolling and having fun with it in the spirit of commiseration... 

I know "some" of that is true... at least for me...  I used to get really down or up based upon weather channel screw ups when I was kid - that's how I know to recognize some of that going on in here.  But it's pretty harmless either way... I think I'd rather have people be "strung out" over a fubar modeling era than same way over a Fentanyl

Oh, without a doubt, weather fanatics are a harmless bunch, even to themselves (with the exception of the odd storm chaser)

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