40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 What kind of amounts on that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yeah as expected... it smears into the flow as an open wave ... which is fine. But keep in mind, that is a threader ..which inherently means less wiggle room. Kind of tough at this range to expect such details would even remotely ... oh man who cares. Check back in a day and half before go time on that piece of shit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What kind of amounts on that run? Looks like classic advisory snows turning into a sleet bomb (ZR a little further south) for much of the interior. I mean, we're also analyzing a D8-9 solution....we're pretty bad these days. Stuff that used to get everyone weenie tagged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So that's an impressive wave coming thru the west D7.5 next week ... I'll maintain that if the general gradient saturation circumstance between SE Canada and Florida doesn't relax... that is an inherent negative interference pattern. Some part of that powerful mechanical presence in the flow can operate on the flow but unless the former relaxation take place, that thing will pay a huge absorption toll as it arrives. Is there some index/prognostication of index that specifically deals with mechanical presence, relaxation or robustness of the flow you're talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Looks like classic advisory snows turning into a sleet bomb (ZR a little further south) for much of the interior. Got confused when I saw "epic"....didn't see to jive. Mini VD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Runaway you’ll know when I melt. Right now I’d do jumping jacks for that sleet storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Got confused when I saw "epic"....didn't see to jive. Mini VD event. Yup... scalpfest for many as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe not ideal for far SEMA but we getting a storm. I'm rooting for Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Runaway you’ll know when I melt. Right now I’d do jumping jacks for that sleet storm. not during the eclipse, uhpuleeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: Is there some index/prognostication of index that specifically deals with mechanical presence, relaxation or robustness of the flow you're talking about? Usually RNA coupled with negative polar modalities lending to deconstructive interference by way of a compressed latitudinal gradient in H5 height field. "Grinder" AKA shredder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, MJOatleast7 said: Is there some index/prognostication of index that specifically deals with mechanical presence, relaxation or robustness of the flow you're talking about? Not that I'm aware of.... It's interpretive mostly, but it's based upon a-priori experience combined with classical education. One could probably be designed based upon truer empirical statistical inference ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The GGEM looks like a ginormous ice storm from White Plains NY to interior NE Ma/S NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Not that I'm aware of.... It's interpretive mostly, but it's based upon a-priori experience combined with classical education. One could probably be designed based upon truer empirical statistical inference ... Maybe difference between aggregate NAO/AO/EPO (polar) domain and PNA? The larger said net value, the more positive the shred index. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Runaway you’ll know when I melt. Right now I’d do jumping jacks for that sleet storm. Just wipe first though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 actually ... the GFS looks like a big icing event as a plausible correction for all that noise, too - go think ... D8 system agreed upon by the GGEM/GFS - ... lock 'er up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm rooting for Spring. I can respect that. Be you, even if it’s against the status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Parade of storms with cold nearby on the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: actually ... the GFS looks like a big icing event as a plausible correction for all that noise, too - go think ... D8 system agreed upon by the GGEM/GFS - ... lock 'er up! Sleet storms are fun. As long as it’s not a forecasted 12” of snow turned 2” followed by sleet/zr. Like tell me upfront I’m getting 2” of snow and 3” of sleet, so I can I’ll properly prepare for it mentally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The GGEM looks like a ginormous ice storm from White Plains NY to interior NE Ma/S NH Yeah, 1036 arctic high smack north of us in Quebec with that sfc track "trying" to go into interior PA/SE NY....that would likely stay pretty cold at the sfc even after the snow changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, 1036 arctic high smack north of us in Quebec with that sfc track "trying" to go into interior PA/SE NY....that would likely stay pretty cold at the sfc even after the snow changes over. GFS keeps everyone sub freezing especially pike northward even to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sleet storms are fun. As long as it’s not a forecasted 12” of snow turned 2” followed by sleet/zr. Like tell me upfront I’m getting 2” of snow and 3” of sleet, so I can I’ll properly prepare for it mentally. I'm definitely not as scared of sleet storms as many on here...esp right now. Bare ground? Perfect time for a sleet bomb after a few inches of arctic sand....put some bass into the pack and then let the fluffer nutters fall on top of it. I think many are afraid of sleet because they correlate it with changing to rain too....often sleet is just a temporary stopover on the way to a 34F rain....but obviously if it stays sleet, then it can actually be kind of cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just wipe first though... Hopefully not too much otherwise storms will be unblocked and into CYUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Parade of storms with cold nearby on the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sleet storms are fun. As long as it’s not a forecasted 12” of snow turned 2” followed by sleet/zr. Like tell me upfront I’m getting 2” of snow and 3” of sleet, so I can I’ll properly prepare for it mentally. I had 5 inches of sleet with temps in the teens in Feb 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, 1036 arctic high smack north of us in Quebec with that sfc track "trying" to go into interior PA/SE NY....that would likely stay pretty cold at the sfc even after the snow changes over. might'nt we triple point and keep the upper levels<32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We're gonna have a gay old time! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: might'nt we triple point and keep the upper levels<32? Lol...you're asking me if we could stay snow on a D8-9 solution? Yeah, anything can happen at this point. For a general rule though, yeah you would typically hedge colder when the synoptic setup has a 1036 arctic high due north of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Isn't the mini VDay D12? The D8 storm doesn't look super exciting to me as is. Pretty bad that the best we can do is analyze long range GFS solutions. Edit: Nevermind. The D12 storm is frozen to rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Gefs has 2 coastal lows for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Nice trifecta out in clown range on the GFS, Get those to play out and that would take a bite out of the deficit in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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