Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The PNA is a large concern, Steve. No absolutes, but you want a PNA ridge....this is why we are getting the crap solutions, right now. Pop that ridge, and I think it would dive further south, phase better, and end up colder. Not if the ridge is center over the west coast though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember...this is the parallel that I am drawing in my mind. This next 20 days is crucial...if we make it to February without a major event, then I will be very concerned about my snowfall ideas. Not there yet. I think very good come back will still be on the table, but my numbers won't work out if we wait that long. I think 1/20 storm will be the last setback before things get good. But yeah it'll be really hard for those amounts to verify unless we have another killer March, which I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html Thanks. Didn't know about that link. You should get another blizzard out of this with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Danger ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Theres no lag between 8 and snowstorms though. The lag is between 6 and snowstorms. Mm... perhaps, but what I said is physically demonstrative... That could easily be a matter of sample sizes and noise causing that - we know by physical processes that it "takes time" to move momentum from one point in space to another. So ...in so far as what worth the conjecture has, it seems exceedingly unlikely - to me - that merely having a wave in Phase 8 --> snow in Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Hazey said: Thanks. Didn't know about that link. You should get another blizzard out of this with that track. Looks okay. Still could go either way at 100 hours. I have to investigate further but i know will and others here have referenced it before. It does have different solutions after 48 hr than the gdps so its not just a splice. Ill reach out to a friend at eccc and see why its not available in grib and on the more public sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: MJO back into phase 5 was expected by most. Amazing how fast it traveled from 6 to 8 Mjo might not even go into phase 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... perhaps, but what I said is physically demonstrative... That could easily be a matter of sample sizes and noise causing that - we know by physical processes that it "takes time" to move momentum from one point in space to another. So ...in so far as what worth the conjecture has, it seems exceedingly unlikely - to me - that merely having a wave in Phase 8 --> snow in Boston The research shows there a direct correlation between 7 and 8 and elevated sig snow risk. You would see it in 6 or 5 if it were a week or two lagged. Theres only an average of 4 to 8 days in each phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not if the ridge is center over the west coast though. Its not...as of now on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think 1/20 storm will be the last setback before things get good. But yeah it'll be really hard for those amounts to verify unless we have another killer March, which I doubt. Yea, I have a normal March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I’m tired of talking about it too, but the problem with RMMs is how they show things like noise, CCKWs etc. There is a CCKW flying across the globe and playing havoc with the RMM plots. It’s why we caution using those despite their convenience in access. This is what is showing this brief phase 5. Indeed as I said earlier it may ignite some response from the maritime continent, but imo it’s not a strong signal and we should see any -EPO ridge move east in a couple of weeks. But defintely beware the RMM plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I'll hang in there if this one cuts, which is a distinct possibility, but if the next one fails, I'm going to teeter.....the frustration is beginning to propagate down from mind, and in about 14 days it will downwell onto my keyboard. I still suspect 1/20 may find a way to work out, though....but no argument as to why it may not. All valid concerns. In the next two weeks, I think we will know where this season is going and by then, The proper posts will be warranted................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00118.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You would think that 1052 high lobing eastward in Canada might give some resistance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 So that's an impressive wave coming thru the west D7.5 next week ... I'll maintain that if the general gradient saturation circumstance between SE Canada and Florida doesn't relax... that is an inherent negative interference pattern. Some part of that powerful mechanical presence in the flow can operate on the flow but unless the former relaxation take place, that thing will pay a huge absorption toll as it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, Hazey said: Thanks. Didn't know about that link. You should get another blizzard out of this with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: You would think that 1052 high lobing eastward in Canada might give some resistance? Been saying that all day and Scooters been screaming at me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Cape Ann to Weymouth jackpock right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Been saying that all day and Scooters been screaming at me He’s slowly melting one run and one day at a time. Stay positive kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Already gfs is morphing this into a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Better run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: You would think that 1052 high lobing eastward in Canada might give some resistance? Epic snow and sleet storm on GFS for that event on 1/20. Clown range of course. K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Epic snow and sleet storm on GFS for that event on 1/20. Clown range of course. K GFS says “is that you Leon?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You know the low level cold is impressive when even the GFS has +4C 850s at ORH at the height of it but sfc temps in the teens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Already gfs is morphing this into a SWFE I bet that would verifying colder too as modeled. Not a bad looks, especially NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Much more favorable tilt... just another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 That solution def reminds me of some of those storms in Jan '94. It's not surprising either because the PV is basically in the same spot as Jan '94...so you'll have some setups that will want to bring obscenely cold arctic air that may or may not get overrun by warmer air aloft from the south. We're gonna want the PV pressing pretty far south given that we do not yet have any NAO blocking....notice how some of the crappier solutions like the 00z Euro and the 06z GFS have the PV either further north or further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I bet that would verifying colder too as modeled. Not a bad looks, especially for everyone fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Epic snow and sleet storm on GFS for that event on 1/20. Clown range of course. K We're due for a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Maybe not ideal for far SEMA but we getting a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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