moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm. I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams. Could the NAM be onto something? We will find out at 12z today's runs. Yup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS says what cutter Yea, some wierd posts cuz that’s a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Yup. Well eastern SNE residents should care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm. I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams. Could the NAM be onto something? We will find out at 12z today's runs. Hazey might care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, some wierd posts cuz that’s a good look. It looked like the mean was a coastal hugger . Couple of camps . I guess you can’t rule anything out quite yet, but all that cold HP and confluence up north shouldn’t allow a cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Well eastern SNE residents should care Enjoy your clouds on the eastern horizon...it’s the only eastern horizon clouds you got. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: I'm same age as Jerry, 72 last Saturday. And I think tamarack has us both beat. My recollection is he turns 73 in March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking. Looks fine to us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: And I think tamarack has us both beat. My recollection is he turns 73 in March... I'm going to set up a survey in the banter thread to allow folks to now how old folks are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Umm, I guess no one cares about the HIRES NAM this morning 6z run with a phase between the northern and southern streams, eastern MA just misses out on a full out snowstorm. I think this is the first run in about 3-4 days showing a phase between the two streams. Could the NAM be onto something? We will find out at 12z today's runs. Nobody cares, not going to happen, move on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks fine to us: GEFS probably will be wrong. You can get a cutter easily with that energy out west and lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking. So those reds over the arctic and greenland are just an illusion? Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's also possible that the PV sinks south and goes back to yesterday's solutions...but people need to understand that with the energy out west, ridge not really a PNA ridge yet, and no big -NAO...it's definitely a hugger or even a cutter risk. As usual this far out, all options on table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Nor'easter and nor'easter after nor'easter in the LR. That's all I want to see. Keep those active signals going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 On the eve of our first event of the historic 2014-15 run. 4 days later we figured hey nice blizzard. 4 weeks later we were dumbfounded under while ineedsnow was throwing things around the room pounding down vodka. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm going to set up a survey in the banter thread to allow folks to now how old folks are. survey is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I voted. Mpm is 20years younger. Sorry you missed the blizzards of the 1950s and 60s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I voted. Mpm is 20years younger. Sorry you missed the blizzards of the 1950s and 60s. Yeah, but I scored '78 so that's a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS probably will be wrong. You can get a cutter easily with that energy out west and lack of blocking. eps is identical. Not saying cut can’t happen but peeps already cliff diving: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Yeah, but I scored '78 so that's a win in my book. That has to cut him like a knife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: eps is identical. Not saying cut can’t happen but peeps already cliff diving: The only jumping here would be with glee... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS probably will be wrong. You can get a cutter easily with that energy out west and lack of blocking. I guess we never learn, GEFS needs to be retired. Just look at what it showed for the past 10 days and what is our reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That has to cut him like a knife 41 years just flashed by and it hurts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: 41 years just flashed by and it hurts! As Jerry lies on the ground withering in pain from the kick he just took in the teabag about 78 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS says what cutter You sure? Even though mean is tucked in the atmosphere is warm and reflective in the 850 2M temp anomalies as well as weenie qpf and snow maps, when the EPS shows over an inch of precip in 24 hrs but only 4 inches of snow in your hood you have to question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: You sure? Even though mean is tucked in the atmosphere is warm and reflective in the 850 2M temp anomalies as well as weenie qpf and snow maps, when the EPS shows over an inch of precip in 24 hrs but only 4 inches of snow in your hood you have to question So you’re leaning lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So you’re leaning lakes cutter Scoots and Ginxy going cutter. Odds are against us now. Sat GTG will be an angry drunken weenie mob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Cutter is def possible for all the reasons Scooter mentioned. The storm is like 9 days out though. Not sure why anyone would rule a particular solution out at that time range. Doesn't change anything in the long term though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Cutter is def possible for all the reasons Scooter mentioned. The storm is like 9 days out though. Not sure why anyone would rule a particular solution out at that time range. Doesn't change anything in the long term though. If past model performance is indicative of current, we should be glad that they've trended toward a miss at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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