Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think they're using Jerry. Lol way out from Logan. Thats still a long shot, easy 20 to 1 odds. Pickles done snookered them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol way out from Logan. Thats still a long shot, easy 20 to 1 odds. Pickles done snookered them. Thankfully we didn't bet on your December/January forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol way out from Logan. Thats still a long shot, easy 20 to 1 odds. Pickles done snookered them. 73.4 inches to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol way out from Logan. Thats still a long shot, easy 20 to 1 odds. Pickles done snookered them. Pickles wouldn't even take 5 to 1. I think 5 to 1 woulda been still a good deal for him. I'd prob sell on 20 to 1 though. We've already done it once and came very close 2 other times in the past 25 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is probably the worst ever at verifying anything beyond D6 in the models. This is vastly beyond the usual uncertainty and failure to do so at those sort of time ranges. The worst I've witnessed in the 25 years I've been privy to weather technology... Not sure I'm seeing any reason why that should suddenly improve. In the meantime... I'm hoping the -30 C 850 MB plume over western Ontario at 216 hours comes squarely over the Great Lakes - just to see what happens. And according to 12z GFS, H8 drops to -39 at FVE 36 hours later. Verbatim, they would spend Jan 21-22 on the Arctic side of -20F. Ain't happening. Also, that run gives our area zippo qpf into day 9, just like the model looked this time last month (except for the deep freeze.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 that's a massive pool of cold air in canada on the euro toward day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: And according to 12z GFS, H8 drops to -39 at FVE 36 hours later. Verbatim, they would spend Jan 21-22 on the Arctic side of -20F. Ain't happening. Also, that run gives our area zippo qpf into day 9, just like the model looked this time last month (except for the deep freeze.) Yup, that isn't happening at all. If it did...the Melts would be Unreal. But then again the way it's been going....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: that's a massive pool of cold air in canada on the euro toward day 7 The EPO ridge goes insane between D4 and D7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The EPO ridge goes insane between D4 and D7. i bet it trends colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPO ridge goes insane between D4 and D7. Amazing how fast the cold air goes from Alaska to the Hudson bay and further south east once the ridge builds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 heh... five day's worth of runs... now two cycles total illustrating a pattern that correlates with indicators - okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 euro and gfs now inside d7 with a favorable pacific. Lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: euro and gfs now inside d7 with a favorable pacific. Lets go! Are you excited? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Scooter better make sure he wipes completely heading into this favorable pattern. No more sh*t streaks please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: euro and gfs now inside d7 with a favorable pacific. Lets go! 2:1 at 50$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 2:1 at 50$ 5:1. pm me to negotiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Scooter better make sure he wipes completely heading into this favorable pattern. No more sh*t streaks please. Got my depends on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Are you excited? Sucks that you hate winter nowadays. You should prob put the modding on autopilot from Nov to May as you grow older and crankier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 not impressed... That's a shit compressed cold hell ... You got what you wanted - congrats! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 5:1. pm me to negotiate. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Got my depends on. Even a little Kevie queef can be tolerated....we just can't have any Suslack oil spills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: not impressed... That's a shit compressed cold hell ... You got what you wanted - congrats! Are your meds suppressed? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 II'll be in SFO the last week of January--lock in something big. 28*, occasional sn-, occasional breaks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPO ridge goes insane between D4 and D7. How’s the 17th threat look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Are your meds suppressed? Ha! ....riight... nah, just being realistic. That's not a good pattern for much. I suppose one could argue that getting cold loaded into and above the 40th parallel over N/A is better than not having that... But, the flow is too fast all fields... It's basically what I wrote about in the daily diatribe ... -EPO/-PNA ... It can be both good or bad... this version is bad. Sorry - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How’s the 17th threat look? Ground up this run....it's 7 days out. I wouldn't really track it yet. If it shows up as something a couple days from now, then yeah. Flow gets very meridional this run....Tip points out the vortex crushing a lot of things, but the meridonal flow can be good too. It helps amplify northenr stream impulses...many of which the model probably can't even "see" yet this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha! ....riight... nah, just being realistic. That's not a good pattern for much. I suppose one could argue that getting cold loaded into and above the 40th parallel over N/A is better than not having that... But, the flow is too fast all fields... It's basically what I wrote about in the daily diatribe ... -EPO/-PNA ... It can be both good or bad... this version is bad. Sorry - I'd wait for the ensemble, bro...deterministic OP at day 7? Pass- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ground up this run....it's 7 days out. I wouldn't really track it yet. If it shows up as something a couple days from now, then yeah. Flow gets very meridional this run....Tip points out the vortex crushing a lot of things, but the meridonal flow can be good too. It helps amplify northenr stream impulses...many of which the model probably can't even "see" yet this far out. We always end up scoring snow in these patterns when a random op run shows teens and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd wait for the ensemble, bro...deterministic OP at day 7? Pass- Well there's that. But wait for what? I wasn't commenting on anything other than this run itself.. It's a shit run. K? nothing else was implied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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