8611Blizz Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Probably not a popular stance in this forum. I'm sure it's not but in Boston 2015 was great until things like fire trucks not being able to get down streets or school roofs leaking or cracking happened. And no I don't think that will happen again to that level in my lifetime, but big comebacks are ( hopefully) still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: At what point is this just not going to be a great year? Already isn't. Even a stellar back half can only get the grade up so high. Midterms already flunked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: At least someone's benefitting from all this. If its still like this in 3 weeks with nothing imminent, then I think the questions should begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Melt after melt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: I'm sure it's not but in Boston 2015 was great until things like fire trucks not being able to get down streets or school roofs leaking or cracking happened. And no I don't think that will happen again to that level in my lifetime, but big comebacks are ( hopefully) still possible. Oh I remember it well. I had to walk to work downtown from Cambridge several times because the T kept breaking down. Narrow streets, sidewalks touch and go. I had to replace the thermal coupling on my furnace because it was working so hard. My profile pic in Hampshire street after the third storm hit. There was a pile of snow at MIT as tall as a six story building. And no, I wouldn't expect to see that again if I live to be 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Well this would pretty much shove everyone off the ledge if they haven't jumped yet.....Just your Typical Cat 2 over DC Cleveland superbomb pushed a bit east. '78 is an analog right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12z GEFS a little better but still has work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 When did Jan 2015 start producing for you guys? Curious how far off the timeline you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We just keep missing, now in even half decent setups. At what point is this just not going to be a great year? If we get skunked in Jan too especially in the second half, then it’s a tough pill to swallow. Feb can be big though. Sucks for the wire to wire cheerleaders but weather comes in bunches nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Melt after melt.... Same stupid cycle from the same people after every threat that was always a long shot in the first place whiffs. Not sure how you grade a period that has yet to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Hazey said: When did Jan 2015 start producing for you guys? Curious how far off the timeline you are. Jan 24 started it with a middling 5-7" event, then the blizzard 3 days later and the super SWFE 4 days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Hazey said: When did Jan 2015 start producing for you guys? Curious how far off the timeline you are. Jan 24th was the first event for many (interior had one in November 2014 though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Also, if you're gonna post the 384 cutter, might as well put up the bomb that just misses east at 340. Looks plenty active before too long. Keep it active with the pattern we're seeing in the weeklies and we should do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If we get skunked in Jan too especially in the second half, then it’s a tough pill to swallow. Feb can be big though. Sucks for the wire to wire cheerleaders but weather comes in bunches nowadays. Yea, if we enter February with next to nothing, then I'll be worried that the season may just suck....unless there is something pretty dramatic imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Also, if you're gonna post the 384 cutter, might as well put up the bomb that just misses east at 340. Looks plenty active before too long. Keep it active with the pattern we're seeing in the weeklies and we should do just fine. I know, just fun to look at since everything is so boring. That thing went from 999 mb to 968 mb in 12 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same stupid cycle from the same people after every threat that was always a long shot in the first place whiffs. Not sure how you grade a period that has yet to begin. To be fair, peeps are grading winter which has begun. Unfortunately, it ‘began’ in mid Novie for some, which has lead to fraud expectations. The period of greatest expected winter like conditions, as you and others have outlined, has yet to begin though, agree....so that is TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Hoth said: Cleveland superbomb pushed a bit east. '78 is an analog right? I think I'd jump with an angry mob chasing me at that point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: To be fair, peeps are grading winter which has begun. Unfortunately, it ‘began’ in mid Novie for some, which has lead to fraud expectations. The period of greatest expected winter like conditions, as you and others have outlined, has yet to begin though, agree....so that is TBD. Yes. Very fair....its been awful, and no one, including me, expected this little snow right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: I know, just fun to look at since everything is so boring. That thing went from 999 mb to 968 mb in 12 hrs... I view that as encouraging. Pattern will hopefully support explosive solutions; whether we capitalize remains to be seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Some crazy bombs on the GEFS for that end of the run storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 So...…..we're looking at hour 384 storms on the OPs and ensembles now. The weather boredom continues...……...aside from our regular rainstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Here are seasons that would get ORH to normal or better if they didn't get another flake until 1/20 ( I included a couple close calls below the dotted line). So that's 11 more days...obviously something could still pop before that, but we'll play devil's advocate. ORH currently has 9.7" on the season so they basically need 59 inches to get to long term normal. (they need more like 55" to get to 1981-2010 normal) These are only at the current airport site...so since 1948. Year......Snow from 1/20 onward 2015......105.8 2005........80.3 1967........78.6 2013........78.2 1958........74.1 2001.......71.8 1993.......68.9 1961.......68.0 1972.......67.3 2018.......61.6 1996.......60.5 --------------- 1994......56.8 2003......54.5 1966.......54.2 1977.......54.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Jan 24th was the first event for many (interior had one in November 2014 though) Even earlier for parts of Maine, as midcoast/Downeast got 10-15" (20" inland DE) on Nov 2. (My area had WSW for 4-8", got 0.5 for the first of 4 mega-busts that season.) Then the 1500-2500' level in the Maine mts got 1-2 feet of tree-busting paste Dec. 7-9. (2nd mega-B here, forecast 10-16, got 1.3 plus 2" cold RA.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, Hoth said: Also, if you're gonna post the 384 cutter, might as well put up the bomb that just misses east at 340. Looks plenty active before too long. Keep it active with the pattern we're seeing in the weeklies and we should do just fine. Really all you want to see from a truncated op model run, Just look for the activity, Track is irrelevant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Melt after melt.... You and I have the most to be jaded about over the past few years yet this winter has not rattled me at all. We are getting 2 storms this winter that deliver over a foot of snow. #itscoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wheeee bu bye OH well at 144 hours there's still plenty of time to .... .... oooh, who the f cares .... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It would be hilarious for the EURO to change its tune all of a sudden and show a benchmark bomb for the day 4/5 period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It would be hilarious for the EURO to change its tune all of a sudden and show a benchmark bomb for the day 4/5 period Not gonna happen James. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here are seasons that would get ORH to normal or better if they didn't get another flake until 1/20 ( I included a couple close calls below the dotted line). So that's 11 more days...obviously something could still pop before that, but we'll play devil's advocate. ORH currently has 9.7" on the season so they basically need 59 inches to get to long term normal. (they need more like 55" to get to 1981-2010 normal) These are only at the current airport site...so since 1948. Year......Snow from 1/20 onward 2015......105.8 2005........80.3 1967........78.6 2013........78.2 1958........74.1 2001.......71.8 1993.......68.9 1961.......68.0 1972.......67.3 2018.......61.6 1996.......60.5 --------------- 1994......56.8 2003......54.5 1966.......54.2 1977.......54.0 Missed last year for some reason....added it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I just don’t know how this won’t get the job done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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