Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Reality is setting in that this next storm is going to whiff, too....that's what I attribute this round of complaining to. Richmond having an epic winter. DT's 200% of seasonal snowfall forecast working out nicely down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So the Jan 19 gtg is now a pat Ray’s back gtg as we watch his Jan 20 timeframe come to fruition. His timing definitely looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: His timing definitely looks pretty good. I've been hitting his outlook hard at work and at home. If he fails I will ask for my retainer back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Absolutely disgusting how that storm whiffs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Absolutely disgusting how that storm whiffs. It has big dog potential too if we had the room for downstream ridging. We're getting some payback this winter so far on the chaos element not breaking our way. Good news is we'll likely have a lot more chances with the coming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It has big dog potential too if we had the room for downstream ridging. We're getting some payback this winter so far on the chaos element not breaking our way. Good news is we'll likely have a lot more chances with the coming pattern. I literally want to vomit when I loop 500. Unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 That high brings us nice, cold air, but squashes the system... nothing shocking there. I was hoping it would retreat a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 d10 looks good though...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Is a 1-3” inch event off the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It has big dog potential too if we had the room for downstream ridging. We're getting some payback this winter so far on the chaos element not breaking our way. Good news is we'll likely have a lot more chances with the coming pattern. True dat on payback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is a 1-3” inch event off the table? No...even higher than that isn't. But it's not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Boy ... a lot of focus on the wrong facets of reality going on with y'all... Instead .. try opening discussion about the super-synoptic/synoptic -scaled issues/limitation with the pattern handling by these tools, rather than clever ways of handling the psycho-babble disappointment. Let me explain something for the enthusiasts and/or any Meteorologists that get vested for that matter... It actually helps to seek and successfully explain why these events fail(succeed), analytically. Once you see the light ... know, and learn... why this happened this time but not that time... what went right, wrong, and leave the truly unknown to the rare fantastic, 98.6% of this stuff doesn't affect you any more, because you've disarmed that baggage with reason. ... except where it should: purely intellectually. As far as we're not getting snow? Too bad. Grow up... Wait our turn. Tough shit. seriously ..think of a trope and add it here. Anyway, the fantasy bombs of ... three days ago, by the GFS and GGEM were both doing something then, that they are not doing now. Within a run or two of those tasty looks ... subtle reduction in the areal extent and amplitude of the western ridge ...particularly it's flexing over the ~ 65 lat up nearing the NW Territories appears to be the culprit. Having the flow construct more sharply curved, and also higher in vertical depth, previously sent crucial S/W mechanics on a SSE diving trajectory shortly thereafter. In recent runs... that subtle ablation of that ridge extent is sending the S/W translation more ESE... effectively bi-passing and no phase. Even now, the southern stream S/W sits in the cafe thinking she's gonna show. But she's not. I like that... Poor Maud Miller: For all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these, what might have been. Anyway, what went wrong: this appears to be a failure to properly assess the super-synoptic scales of the N-Pac arc and how it would transitively relay to synoptic wave spacing/amplitude forcing over western Canada. And it is a transitive thing... A wave "scrunched" or opened up somewhere west of the Aleutians is a small innocuous correction across some sensitive thresholds that can mean 15 deca-meters lopped off down wind over N Manatoba... ultimately a different destiny thereafter. What needs to go right: the opposite of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay...so shave 15-20" off of 2005 and 1978 if you must...60" is my floor this season for KBOS. Yes, that would below the 80-90" forecast range. What happened overnight where even the most gung-ho are cutting back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The clap of thunder last night around midnight was epic. Staccato attack followed by huge, floor rumbling, rolling surge that lasted for like 15 seconds. The lightening is what woke me. My daughter came running into our room hysterical. I'm sure the new dog was not loving being in the crate alone. Interesting radar loop at that time also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No...even higher than that isn't. But it's not looking good. Have to be honest...a lot of talk of a lot of blocking coming up in the supposed pattern change. I know and understand that blocking is a good thing, but with the way we've been striking out all over lately, I can see how too much of a good thing can hurt us coming up yet again??? The two big chances, last month and Sunday/Monday are going south due to confluence/ high pressure/ that is a sort of blocking on a small scale...no?? The angst is real here this morning...we can't seem to catch a break up to this point. Hopefully that can change going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, cut said: The clap of thunder last night around midnight was epic. Staccato attack followed by huge, floor rumbling, rolling surge that lasted for like 15 seconds. The lightening is what woke me. My daughter came running into our room hysterical. I'm sure the new dog was not loving being in the crate alone. Interesting radar loop at that time also. Down south here, in NJ, had one similar, loud clap of thunder that woke me up. 30 seconds later, there was a dog, and and 2 cats on my bed. sounded nothing like a summertime thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Have to be honest...a lot of talk of a lot of blocking coming up in the supposed pattern change. I know and understand that blocking is a good thing, but with the way we've been striking out all over lately, I can see how too much of a good thing can hurt us coming up yet again??? The two big chances, last month and Sunday/Monday are going south due to confluence/ high pressure/ that is a sort of blocking on a small scale...no?? The angst is real here this morning...we can't seem to catch a break up to this point. Hopefully that can change going forward. Trust me when I say you would prefer blocking over no blocking. If you want to go back to an unmanned firehose cutter regime, then you'll root for no blocking. Sure...there are times when we get "Saved" by no blocking, but that is the exception rather than the rule. And ironically, this latest threat doesn't really have a big block, it's an ill-timed spoke going around a pseudo 50/50 low...it's not like a mega blocking is forcing everything down. Just some bad timing and that's going to happen. It even happens twice in a row sometimes (going back to the December threat). What Tip said has some truth as well...why are we not getting this to come up the coast? We're getting a bit of a flatter angle on the top of the ridge....the lower half of the ridge looks good, but the top kind of shears off....how do we fix that problem? We get more amplified ridging out west. What kind of pattern is developing in the next 10 days? More amplified riding out west....that kind of stuff can cure some problems. The more meridional the flow is, the easier it is to phase in northern stream and arctic stream shortwaves into the mean trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Thanks Will...Understood. Great explanation as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I literally want to vomit when I loop 500. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 34 minutes ago, kdxken said: What happened overnight where even the most gung-ho are cutting back? Its theoretical to entertain their argument. I don't change seasonal snowfall ranges...once they are out, its final. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Trust me when I say you would prefer blocking over no blocking. If you want to go back to an unmanned firehose cutter regime, then you'll root for no blocking. Sure...there are times when we get "Saved" by no blocking, but that is the exception rather than the rule. And ironically, this latest threat doesn't really have a big block, it's an ill-timed spoke going around a pseudo 50/50 low...it's not like a mega blocking is forcing everything down. Just some bad timing and that's going to happen. It even happens twice in a row sometimes (going back to the December threat). What Tip said has some truth as well...why are we not getting this to come up the coast? We're getting a bit of a flatter angle on the top of the ridge....the lower half of the ridge looks good, but the top kind of shears off....how do we fix that problem? We get more amplified ridging out west. What kind of pattern is developing in the next 10 days? More amplified riding out west....that kind of stuff can cure some problems. The more meridional the flow is, the easier it is to phase in northern stream and arctic stream shortwaves into the mean trough. Yea, the shape of that ridge is why I downplayed that threat in my last blog. Even when the euro tried to shift it west, it would flatten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just looking at the individual 6z gefs members, you'd think this would be closer to the coast. The operational just refuses to budge to the left. It's like this winter is finding new ways to spit in our face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Nam looks like it will throw some of us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam looks like it will throw some of us a bone. I think most of us would even take a Biscuit at this point.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam looks like it will throw some of us a bone. Er ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: I think most of us would even take a Biscuit at this point.... Yea. We’re looking for crumbs on the floor at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Not seeing it on the NAM. Gonna have to do a lot in the next few frames to save it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 You could argue that at some point something almost has to break right for us. We've scored in garbage patterns before. All these misses and badly timed Scooter Streaks is sort of like flipping coins and having it endlessly come up heads when you want tails. Can it come up heads fifty tosses in a row? A hundred? Sure, but it's pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not seeing it on the NAM. Gonna have to do a lot in the next few frames to save it. I thought it’s hanging back the energy in the plains some more which, if we go out in time, would get the SSS out the way. I dunno, I guess I’m reaching for any small positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: You could argue that at some point something almost has to break right for us. We've scored in garbage patterns before. All these misses and badly timed Scooter Streaks is sort of like flipping coins and having it endlessly come up heads when you want tails. Can it come up heads fifty tosses in a row? A hundred? Sure, but it's pretty unlikely. Well on the flip side, we've been talking about how lucky we've been the past 10-15 (or even longer) years with getting a lot of these bigger ticker threats to break right for us. Ill-timed scooter streaks, bad breaks, etc were the hallmark of the 1980s into the early 1990s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts