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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow. EPS def getting better. That's not that far SE of BM with plenty of time left. 

There are a few south of Long island on Monday, seems like something redevelops and then moves northeast Monday into Tuesday. Sunday is just some light snow south of the pike.

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16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are they just tucked due to a stronger southern stream or are they phase bombs?

I don't think there are that many phase bombs in there. Maybe a couple but definitely some seem to be mostly southern stream. I'm kind of skeptical of that but who knows. There's still a decent amount of time. 

Also hard to tell based on the spaghetti plots if a few might be late phasers. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think there are that many phase bombs in there. Maybe a couple but definitely some seem to be mostly southern stream. I'm kind of skeptical of that but who knows. There's still a decent amount of time. 

Also hard to tell based on the spaghetti plots if a few might be late phasers. 

They seem slower too - some decent members on Monday. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  I noticed that too. In any case, nam looked a little better fwiw. It’s getting snow to ORD and I know the streak is there,  but it’s kind of pushing out too.

Maybe later is better? Get the SSS out and get the N stream energy to hold back some?

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  I noticed that too. In any case, nam looked a little better fwiw. It’s getting snow to ORD and I know the streak is there,  but it’s kind of pushing out too.

Almost seems like a brand new northern stream impulse getting ready to dive down; as tho we're only looking at the s/w ridge. The illusion of pushing out

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's also closing off at the 552 depth which is unimpressive for that particular latitude/climo. 

My bad the Ia/MO border.  That second shortwave in the northern stream could phase if the models are trending towards a slower southern stream, especially if the NAM is right with the southern trough closing off.

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It does illustrate an important dual jet structure passing/getting ready to turn SE via the NW territories at the end of the run. 

Thing is is that nothings really changed in my mind anyway… Should the northern stream come back the southern stream is still providing a conduit for any impulse to dive into. Hence the subsume scenario is just not model to do that right now but it was two days ago

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Wonder if those later / closer EPS members are related to that lagging piece of PVA shooting down behind the southern stream as we saw on the 18z GFS... a somewhat different evolution (we've seen several in the past 48 hours) that could give us more impact, delayed but not denied... 

As we've all said... these big H5 features are still very much in flux and there's plenty of time for this to trend better or worse

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Wonder if those later / closer EPS members are related to that lagging piece of PVA shooting down behind the southern stream as we saw on the 18z GFS... a somewhat different evolution (we've seen several in the past 48 hours) that could give us more impact, delayed but not denied... 

As we've all said... these big H5 features are still very much in flux and there's plenty of time for this to trend better or worse

also the southern stream energy isn't on the west coast just yet, so sampling is minimal especially if the government shutdown is really impacting our satellite coverage.  Not sure that is true or not, but it is possible.

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

also the southern stream energy isn't on the west coast just yet, so sampling is minimal especially if the government shutdown is really impacting our satellite coverage.  Not sure that is true or not, but it is possible.

Even with satellite I still think there is a big difference when the energy comes ashore. It’s just not the same til the RAOBS sample the system 

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm out to hour 108, it looks good, the confluence streak is lifting out 

It not happening this run....if we're picking nits, it looked slightly better. Almost got a partial phase with northern stream. But this run verbatim is not gonna produce much.

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25 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah FV3-GFS has consistently brought the system close or even inside the BM for at least 6 straight runs

I assume it does not generally have better verification scores vs. GFS,  but this will be an interesting case test

Actually, according to this it has a better verification than the GFS:

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

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