Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s pretty darn potent.  If that idea is right we would have to hope the timing is off.  There are windows between those rotating vorts where the system would be able to come more north if you sneak in a 12 hour period between them 

It is a pattern that reminds me of the past big blizzards that did happen, not in terms of potential, I don't think this setup is bringing feet of snow, maybe a band of heavy snow 6"+ along the south coast of New England, but Boxing Day 2010, Nemo and Juno all occurred in a pattern like this in the model runs.  Day 7-10 its modeled to be a large snowstorm, days 4-7 it was lost and pushed out to sea, and then within 48 hours it came roaring back in the one EURO run and all the guidance followed suite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's just simply a piss poor correlation with a moderately strong Phase 8 backed +PNA  ... by 10, there's no signal at all really - baffling.

By D10 it's some kind of weird undulate look with equals ridge-trough wave structure across the 40th parallel, with limited or no coherent L/W typology for either length of semi-fixed structures normal to to the ides of January. 

This run looks poorly continuous of any "theme" other than chaos from the 00z run, which subsequently bore the same disarray comparing the run before that...   

This entire run isn't worth the letters types by anyone -

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is a pattern that reminds me of the past big blizzards that did happen, not in terms of potential, I don't think this setup is bringing feet of snow, maybe a band of heavy snow 6"+ along the south coast of New England, but Boxing Day 2010, Nemo and Juno all occurred in a pattern like this in the model runs.  Day 7-10 its modeled to be a large snowstorm, days 4-7 it was lost and pushed out to sea, and then within 48 hours it came roaring back in the one EURO run and all the guidance followed suite.

I say this with the most respectable touch, but not going to happen James. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh I know Scott, of course, this isn't happening, just pointed out the potential is still there for a few inches of snow.

 Note to clarify, I meant the storms you listed. A light event could happen l, hell even the lightet version of those storms are possible perhaps. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is a pattern that reminds me of the past big blizzards that did happen, not in terms of potential, I don't think this setup is bringing feet of snow, maybe a band of heavy snow 6"+ along the south coast of New England, but Boxing Day 2010, Nemo and Juno all occurred in a pattern like this in the model runs.  Day 7-10 its modeled to be a large snowstorm, days 4-7 it was lost and pushed out to sea, and then within 48 hours it came roaring back in the one EURO run and all the guidance followed suite.

12/09 had a vort in Canada but it was fairly unstable and we knew all we needed for it do was split and it did.  The vort in February 2010 wasn’t anywhere as near as strong as this one.  The timing was just miserable on it.  The flow was also more WSW with a negatively tiled trof I believe.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Rock bottom will be when the pattern changes favorably only to get suppression.

heh... more than less suggesting worse already -  ...i mean, at least with suppression you'd have something similar to a -AO and +PNA combination ..i.e., too much of a good thing ... but this?  It's changed to rectal plaque - ...this doesn't correlate to anything, while simultaneously removing any passion for weather.   

There are few truly 0 unredeeming looks .. this is trying to figure one out.  And doing so amid at Phased 8 MJO +PNA with a -AO ball sack is an unwanted tea-baggin' 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Rock bottom will be when the pattern changes favorably only to get suppression.

THIS would definately be a terrible situation. Warm and wet to cold and dry. 

Hope this is not the case but even if we get suppressed, when the pattern breaks down there may be an awesome storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EC ensembles are def an improvement from last night....but we still need more help.

I don't think we're getting the scooter streak out of the way in time, so we are going to need a partial phase...that's going to be our best path to a storm. It's not favorable, we'll need to see that trend west about 100-200 miles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

B8SXO5CIUAAkYlN.png

They sold Jimmy short in that one.

 

BTW, big improvements showing up inside of 300h....around 1/20....much bigger ridge out west vs 00z run.

 

Ray is going to be strutting his stuff if that timing works out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They sold Jimmy short in that one.

 

BTW, big improvements showing up inside of 300h....around 1/20....much bigger ridge out west vs 00z run.

 

Ray is going to be strutting his stuff if that timing works out.

Yup  Jimmy cracked corn on that one.     If Ray gets this he will be on a whole 'nother level.       You can see the 500mb ridge really starting to shape up even on the 17th/18th

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EC ensembles are def an improvement from last night....but we still need more help.

I don't think we're getting the scooter streak out of the way in time, so we are going to need a partial phase...that's going to be our best path to a storm. It's not favorable, we'll need to see that trend west about 100-200 miles.

A lot of left leaning members

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see where that;s going too past the end....that's starting to let the NAO into the fun I think...and the PNA/EPO ridge isn't even done building up yet.

 If we can just get even an advisory this weekend, it would feel like busting in a bloop single to win the game. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • ORH_wxman locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...