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January 2019 Discussion


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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

What a run for the northeast.  1-3 feet of snow from Kansas east to Virginia and then up the northeast corridor followed by widespread 0F air.  I don't know how this would stack up against other big US event snowstorms but this will subdue all the "Global Warming" chatter.  Expect some tweets

No it won't.  The uninformed will blame the storm on global warming, as they are unable to differentiate between single weather events and climate.

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30 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

I think most folks know it's 7 days out, just fun to have something to track.  But there are storms that models have picked up 7 days out and pretty much remained locked in.. so who knows.

Yeah, like the present one going to our south.  Different setup, but just saying.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yep.  Your call was safe...until it wasn’t. 

I did a write up on why that busted....the factors inhibiting intensification early actually doomed FL in the end because it staved off the ERC, and the semi permanent ridge over the SE precluded the usual ingestion of dry air.

This is what I mean when I say the busts are more informative than the verified forecasts.....you fill knowledge gaps in the former, while the latter only serve to hone back patting skills.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I recall that vividly. I posted it.. of course got accused of hype by Will .. etc..and Ray agreed with me 

I just went back and looked at 2015 and 2013 and it seems like we were all expecting huge totals. Which makes sense because the model guidance was indicating every reason to expect monster totals. The biggest criticism I see in is in the 2015 thread, the massive broadbrush of 24-36" totals from Box and Okx....which turned out to be a valid criticism. 

The storm that I remember getting screwed on being too conservative was Jan 2011. Wasn't expecting 20+ widespread totals in that but we got them. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I just went back and looked at 2015 and 2013 and it seems like we were all expecting huge totals. Which makes sense because the model guidance was indicating every reason to expect monster totals. The biggest criticism I see in is in the 2015 thread, the massive broadbrush of 24-36" totals from Box and Okx....which turned out to be a valid criticism. 

The storm that I remember getting screwed on being too conservative was Jan 2011. Wasn't expecting 20+ widespread totals in that but we got them. 

I will say .. this upcoming one .. I don’t see it being huge. Maybe 12-18” type deal 

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