powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On a major snow event? I feel relatively confident conisdering the range...at least plowable, anyway. Yeah agreed. Seems good enough guidance consensus to at least assume a wide zone of New England sees 3-4"+. The problem is seeing so many runs of big numbers that it's hard to getbthat out of your head for 6 days of waiting to nowcast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 These clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, 78Blizzard said: You already said that with the EPS. When the CMC trends the same tonight, just say it again. I’ll say it all day every day when it’s 7 days out and you get 25-30” as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: lol Dam it I only get 20! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: These clown maps. Seems like every year they get more steroids pumped in them than Canseco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 What are the chances the first system becomes the main deal? The stronger that one is, it seems like the second should be further south. That first low has a decent push of cold south behind it that should help keep the baroclinic zone further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Dam it I only get 20! I get a measly 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 What the hell is the positive snow depth change?? Why does it look so much weenier than the total snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Hazey said: What the hell is the positive snow depth change?? Why does it look so much weenier than the total snowfall map? Most of the time it's less weenieish. It's supposed to represent how much actually accumuates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What are the chances the first system becomes the main deal? The stronger that one is, it seems like the second should be further south. That first low has a decent push of cold south behind it that should help keep the baroclinic zone further south. First wave looks too weak to be main deal. Second shortwave is much stronger. There's also enough spacing between them that it's believable...like a good 48-60 hours. Its totally believable that the second misses though. But I think it would have more to do with the PV than the first shortwave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll say it all day every day when it’s 7 days out and you get 25-30” as modeled. Scott agreed. However, what if by say Wednesday they are still showing those large amounts, now does it catch you eye or still way too early.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Hazey said: What the hell is the positive snow depth change?? Why does it look so much weenier than the total snowfall map? Cuz we’re -15” behind schedule so 15” gives us a +30” change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, 512high said: Scott agreed. However, what if by say Wednesday they are still showing those large amounts, now does it catch you eye or still way too early.....? Get me to Thursday/Friday personally. Obviously Wednesday is much closer so you take it more seriously. But I wouldn't be throwing out KU type amounts until inside of 72 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, 512high said: Scott agreed. However, what if by say Wednesday they are still showing those large amounts, now does it catch you eye or still way too early.....? I think I’d give a larger storm more credit. But a week to go with this setup? Man so much can change. This could go to Montreal of over the Andrea Gale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: What are the chances the first system becomes the main deal? The stronger that one is, it seems like the second should be further south. That first low has a decent push of cold south behind it that should help keep the baroclinic zone further south. That first one is actually way south with the southern s/w...there's a weak northern stream s/w that rotates down around the PV aligned, but unphased with the southern one. It looks more like some kind of inverted trough deal on the GFS. I think for that to become a big show we'd need to see the models underestimating that northern s/w and it can dig enough to create some sort of partial phase. Seems like a longshot to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Every situation is unique, but I recall the heads up that came days in advance of the blizzards of 78, 93, etc. I've seen forecasts for mega hits that fizzled out at the last minute. At least it has the potential to be a interesting week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Don't forget Friday's strong advisory snow event first - might want to focus on that ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Every situation is unique, but I recall the heads up that came days in advance of the blizzards of 78, 93, etc. I've seen forecasts for mega hits that fizzled out at the last minute. At least it has the potential to be a interesting week 93 was like a massive global 3 stream deal. Even the coarse models back then were able to sniff it out from 5 days out. I don't recall 78 being a great long lead forecast. Sounds like yore to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: 93 was like a massive global 3 stream deal. Even the coarse models back then were able to sniff it out from 5 days out. I don't recall 78 being a great long lead forecast. Sounds like yore to me. '78 was forecast as a scraper as close in as like 24-36 hours out...Harvey was gung-ho though as a young rookie before others caught on....got himself on the map with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, WeatherX said: Where would the warm layer reside though to get sleet in a setup like this? I can see sleet down here certainly as it hugs but it would be strange up there. . ORH was 9 with zr while BOS ripped dendrites. True story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: ORH was 9 with zr while BOS ripped dendrites. True story. Sounds like 1/14/99 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Don't forget Friday's strong advisory snow event first - might want to focus on that ...Nobody gives a crap about breadsticks when the marble steak is on the grill in the background. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I think we talked about Friday. Maybe could be a few inches if it breaks out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 ORH was 9 with zr while BOS ripped dendrites. True story.Craziness. We need a region wide dumper to soothe our collective souls. Hopefully this one delivers!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: If we close H7 off that much early and as far south as the GFS does most of CNE and SNE will probably remain mostly snow. H7 is frigid cept for LI and extreme SE Mass but even there its brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Don't forget Friday's strong advisory snow event first - might want to focus on that ... If Fridays event is strong enough then it would shift the boundary south for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: 93 was like a massive global 3 stream deal. Even the coarse models back then were able to sniff it out from 5 days out. I don't recall 78 being a great long lead forecast. Sounds like yore to me. I was in college in 78, University of Maryland. The storm hit Boston on a Monday I believe. On the Friday before I toured the National Weather Service down in DC. The Met's were looking at the (LFM?) and really honking at a possible historic storm. I can also remember sitting in my dorm room listening to the statiky WBZ and wishing so bad I was up in New England instead of Maryland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There was a system in Jan 94 that gave about 11 inches here where much of the event was in single digits and then we actually mixed briefly with sleet for a couple hours and temps near 10F. These runs are definitely reminding me of that setup. I had freezing rain in SRI with an initial temp of 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Sweet Mary and Joseph the 18z GEFS rock. The dreaded 1 week “it is beautiful!!” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 32 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: What a run for the northeast. 1-3 feet of snow from Kansas east to Virginia and then up the northeast corridor followed by widespread 0F air. I don't know how this would stack up against other big US event snowstorms but this will subdue all the "Global Warming" chatter. Expect some tweets only from complete nimrods - 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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