40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Some good things going for it. Great high pressing down...even on some of the more amped solutions we get some decent snow and sleet. Tons of moisture feed into this storm...so we'll have the juice if we can stay cold enough. Were lacking downstream blocking though so this can still change but the PV seems to be settling into a more consistent location on the models which helps keep this storm into a smaller window...I'll be pretty confident if we can make it through Tuesday with good results. Yea, don't get me wrong...I get the day 7/lack of blocking caveats. Totally valid. But what I am seeing: 1: Relative consistency RE slow enough ejection of energy to allow arctic dome to press. 2: Relative consistency RE PV placement. 3: We are enterjng the second half of winter in SNE during a weak modoki season in which snowfall has been denied with nothing short of surgical precision. That simply will not continue...hedge snow from this point forward...right on schedule. Its akin to Tom Brady in the 4th quarter of a post season game. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: What....you’re not going to the gtg? I should be there. My daughter is going to DC with friends, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Maybe the Chargers should just call it quits at halftime and head back to sunny, warm LA. The Pats are 58-0 in regular and post season games in Foxboro with a 21 point or more lead. Maybe take the sports talk to the appropriate topic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Well hopefully the Euro is right. Not only the big storm but on the system prior it to it as well. That is about the most perfect setup for a SWFE imaginable if you’re in southern portions of SNE or south. Looks like all of sne to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Here you go Brian we know how much you like this. Pats destroy while we admire their precision lets admire this. Long island would actually be an iceberg if that much freezing rain verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like all of sne to me. Hello naked twister CJ CF with rates 2 to 3 per Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like all of sne to me. I figured the northern crew would Bitch the SWFE mostly tracks south of them LOL. The western energy/trof is usually key for southern areas in SNE and NYC to stay frozen in a SWFE. If there is any ridging or zonal flow from SEA-GTF the system typically overdigs and tracks too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I figured the northern crew would Bitch the SWFE mostly tracks south of them LOL. The western energy/trof is usually key for southern areas in SNE and NYC to stay frozen in a SWFE. If there is any ridging or zonal flow from SEA-GTF the system typically overdigs and tracks too far north What northern crew bitched? You confuse the sh it out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hello naked twister CJ CF with rates 2 to 3 per That's like some of those frigid '14 storms...maybe not quite as cold but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What northern crew bitched? You confuse the sh it out of me I figured they’d complain the first system at 108 hits southern areas better than it does them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hello naked twister CJ CF with rates 2 to 3 per It would be closer to Boston'sn than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I figured the northern crew would Bitch the SWFE mostly tracks south of them LOL. The western energy/trof is usually key for southern areas in SNE and NYC to stay frozen in a SWFE. If there is any ridging or zonal flow from SEA-GTF the system typically overdigs and tracks too far north lol, Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I figured they’d complain the first system at 108 hits southern areas better than it does them. I don't think anyone is looking at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: That's like some of those frigid '14 storms...maybe not quite as cold but close. Seeing that kind of cold modeled makes me pause just slightly to contemplate a more suppresed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't think anyone is looking at that. It’s generally better in a snow starved season to put your eggs into the basket of the system that’s closer to possibly happening. Remember too that system can help or hurt the ensuing big dog depending upon its strength and what it does when it gets off the Maritimes. That system being stronger likely helps the weekend one. If it doesn’t happen or is poo in regards to strength the next system might be more likely to track too far inland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Seeing that kind of cold modeled makes me pause just slightly to contemplate a more suppresed solution. Yeah, I was rather nonplussed by the GFS trying to push rain into the area with that thing nearby. Suppression always a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Seeing that kind of cold modeled makes me pause just slightly to contemplate a more suppresed solution. It would be more of a concern up here i think then in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Theyll be back next run when it shows a primary into Binghamton and powderfreak posts a snowmap with a comment "wow, this would cause all the people in SNE to line up on the Tobin" Hey now I'd never do that. I got ripped apart the other night for saying "It's cold out." I know what not to do with this crowd right now! That was a beautiful Euro run and would be awesome to get the vast majority of the board into a big winter event. This will certainly be one of those events where by the time it gets to NAM range it'll feel like a nowcast event at 72 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I was rather nonplussed by the GFS trying to push rain into the area with that thing nearby. Suppression always a concern. Now that we are headed into more of a classic El Niño pattern with a less disruptive pacific jet the GFS suckage will likely rise over the next month 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we'll get this one. As I've been saying, SNE has a snowy climate...you can't keep rolling snake eyes. One of these has to deliver eventually in this cold/active weather we've had for months. But you can already see someone being disappointed by a 4-8" event after looking at Day 7 runs of 20-30". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: As I've been saying, SNE has a snowy climate...you can't keep rolling snake eyes. One of these has to deliver eventually in this cold/active weather we've had for months. But you can already see someone being disappointed by a 4-8" event after looking at Day 7 runs of 20-30". I think we will get a big event, but I would be stunned if we didn't get at least a plowable snow. Not that that isn't within the range of possibilities, but I just don't think that will happen for a plethora of reasons already stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I would love a 4-8 event, definitely not expecting 2 feet at the moment lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: As I've been saying, SNE has a snowy climate...you can't keep rolling snake eyes. One of these has to deliver eventually in this cold/active weather we've had for months. But you can already see someone being disappointed by a 4-8" event after looking at Day 7 runs of 20-30". Why? They're not getting 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: As I've been saying, SNE has a snowy climate...you can't keep rolling snake eyes. One of these has to deliver eventually in this cold/active weather we've had for months. But you can already see someone being disappointed by a 4-8" event after looking at Day 7 runs of 20-30". If d2-3 has 12+ and most get 4-8 disappointing is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hey now I'd never do that. I got ripped apart the other night for saying "It's cold out." I know what not to do with this crowd right now! That was a beautiful Euro run and would be awesome to get the vast majority of the board into a big winter event. This will certainly be one of those events where by the time it gets to NAM range it'll feel like a nowcast event at 72 hours out. It wasn’t cold in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: If d2-3 has 12+ and most get 4-8 disappointing is legit. You know I would be happy with 4-8" , it would suck seeing areas getting more, but tired of looking at frozen ground....watch the runs tonight, .....IDK, if they keep looking like this till Wednesday maybe we are all due for something we haven't seen in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, 512high said: You know I would be happy with 4-8" , it would suck seeing areas getting more, but tired of looking at frozen ground....watch the runs tonight, .....IDK, if they keep looking like this till Wednesday maybe we are all due for something we haven't seen in a while Agreed that 4-8” would be sweet. Would love a foot plus, but I’m not getting worked up over that for a while. Just please don’t rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, 512high said: maybe we are all due for something we haven't seen in a while Snow? Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It wasn’t cold in SNE There's been plenty of cold for snow if you Average the past 60-90 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Nice to see the EC. Just tucky it in a smudge. Just got up to Pit2.....nice to see that winter exists here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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