Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 By the way ... those that have commented on the para 06z run... yeeeah, but, your snow goggles missed the near warning ice-storm in the interior before the "20-30" (imagine sarcastic irreverence) of snow... That would be taking NESDIS 4-like event and locally making it a little more interesting to put it nicely - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What if it lasts through the start of severe season? I’d take a TOR tearing up the snow pack if need be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Love to say .... but the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs actually look like better blended fits when plotting the lower tropospheric evolution on top of native pattern limitations as described above... My guess? Just don't like it because it's a ...not as much snow, and more importantly b ... the snow is PA/Upstate NY and more NNE. That said, there's no reason why that solution in totality can't adjust SE (and it would be a very small adjustment Meteorologically) and still maintain it's overall complexions as a flat, QPF rich wave ... squeezed through a hostile velocity flow. But again again ...again, this is all predicated on the compression of the field being in place 144+ hours... If that proves relaxing, that could/would change things... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I actually think 3-5" of sleet would be pretty interesting. Doubt that's what actually happens though. The march 14th, 2017 storm gave NYC around 5 inches of sleet. It honestly was pretty interesting...and painful to be outside in. The sleet was so loud...kinda awesome. Not a weather event I'll ever forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Here's the rub... the compression is not an absolute mitigation. It's a reducing factor ... Here's how it works for the less than knowing: excessive wind velocity in the ambient geostrophic medium, absorbs embedded particular S/W mechanics by lowering their d(v) within the flow. With lower d(v), that (physically) requires less restoring jets ( you can look these up in the total cyclonic model) Weaker restoring = weaker resulting cylogenesis. d(v) = (wind velocity of the ambient - wind velocity maximum of S/W) ... (this is paraphrased mathematics describing the partial derivatives of Navior Stokes) Tip, I need the dumb, further dumbed down version for my meager brain. Seriously don't spend the time but here's a question. If the flow is fast and compressed, long strung out event verses an amped up solution creating a big storm, wouldn't someone in the right place end up getting just as much qpf, because such a long WSW to ENE event verses a quicker north ride up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Sleet removed ratios added. Lol I would pay to see this. Basically a Valentine’s Day east, foot of sleet for me I wonder if my snowblower could handle that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Can't imagine the chaos if we had an inch of ice, then 4-6 inches of sleet followed by 4-6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's a pretty good chance this ends up being a general frontal passage with a lot of rain/mixed precip out ahead of it and bitter cold behind it. However the icing scenarios are equally possible. You have a massive supply of low level cold that's being pushed southward against a would be cutter and an ample moisture supply. Agree...for the reasons elucidated by Tip. Is this similar to March 2005...rain to sleet to 3-5", with plunging temps and strong winds? That was one of my favorite underrated events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I wonder if my snowblower could handle that? Shovel sleet, good workout. Just need ski goggles and a bulletproof jacket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Tip, I need the dumb, further dumbed down version for my meager brain. Seriously don't spend the time but here's a question. If the flow is fast and compressed, long strung out event verses an amped up solution creating a big storm, wouldn't someone in the right place end up getting just as much qpf, because such a long WSW to ENE event verses a quicker north ride up the coast? No ..you got it. That's right ... but, the point I also wanted to make is that it favors ... that, and also yes - if one is located favorably - we've called that "threading the needle" in the past .. .which is tantamount to getting lucky really - than a band can rip. Also, it's a good point about the duration - the strung out variant storm can actually linger just because of their longitudinal spread occupying more space - more space to get through = longer duration. Will mentioned 1994 Feb earlier and that's a good example. It's also true that those sort of scenarios will tend to 'pulse' with nodes of enhancement associated with local vorticies running up along the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Love to say .... but the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs actually look like better blended fits when plotting the lower tropospheric evolution on top of native pattern limitations as described above... My guess? Just don't like it because it's a ...not as much snow, and more importantly b ... the snow is PA/Upstate NY and more NNE. That said, there's no reason why that solution in totality can't adjust SE (and it would be a very small adjustment Meteorologically) and still maintain it's overall complexions as a flat, QPF rich wave ... squeezed through a hostile velocity flow. But again again ...again, this is all predicated on the compression of the field being in place 144+ hours... If that proves relaxing, that could/would change things... Nicely put John. To use one of your terms, the vector correction at 6 days could lead to a more wintry scenario. A strung out system would be the preferable solution too given the latitude it is currently modeled to come out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, rimetree said: Can't imagine the chaos if we had an inch of ice, then 4-6 inches of sleet followed by 4-6 inches of snow. My father told me a story about something similar to this happening ...when he was boy, growing up in southern Michigan. Battle Creek - "cereal country" Anyway, it was circa 1948 I think he said ... but, a cold rain started accreting one late afternoon early in March. After nearly a half inch of glaze, the windows on the N side of the house begin rattling away with bee-bee ordinance and pounded close to 5" of sleet by dawn ... at which time it snowed on top hard through noon with five inches. He said the storm stuck out in his memory so well... because four days later, ...being that it was March in the midwest... the temperature sourced into 60s and all that dense sleet slab in the countryside melted all at once, and vividly he recalls something that looks analogous to a tidal bore came roaring down the Kalamazoo river. Him and his dad (me gran' pappy) stood on a bridge as it came rumbling underneath rife with a tumult in other winter debris. We surmise what happened was that there may have been some transient ice damming from all that sleet that sort of gave way and built up a flash flooding wave. But that would be neat to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 ICON has an epic gradient 0 SE MA 20"+ for Northern MA into NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: ICON has an epic gradient 0 SE MA 20"+ for Northern MA into NH the gradient isn't a bad look/idea here ... The amounts? mm... obviously very negotiable at this range - ha! But, "narrowing" of transition axis would be consistent to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: ICON has an epic gradient 0 SE MA 20"+ for Northern MA into NH 0 as in rain or 0 as in ice and sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: 0 as in rain or 0 as in ice and sleet? Zip, Zippo, Nada.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: 0 as in rain or 0 as in ice and sleet? there's about 2-3" of QPF but can't get the details about the ICON model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nicely put John. To use one of your terms, the vector correction at 6 days could lead to a more wintry scenario. A strung out system would be the preferable solution too given the latitude it is currently modeled to come out of. ... sort of... It's like Bob Feller standing up in the back of a pick-up truck that is driving 30 mph. He winds up and hurls a fast ball as hard as he can, in the direction the vehicle and he are driving.... Mind us, though radar technology was not accessible of that era of last Century, umpires with vast years of experience were quoted as saying that his fast balls "...Sounded like 105 mph". The used to call 'im "Rapid Robert," or "Bullet Bob" - although the latter applied to an Olympic runner and a pro wrestler, too. Anyway, he throws "105" mph ... but what speed is the ball actually traveling? We have to remember ... the ball starts out already moving 30 mph. Negating wind resistance for a moment, the ball moves at 135 mph. That's analogous to the stretching of the wave mechanics in a fast flow... the nose of S/W starts stretching down wind as it encounters the acceleration, because said acceleration adds ... The amount it adds is also inversely proportionate to the loss of S/W specific d(v) ... but anywho But ... the stretching in the longitude, does limit the latitude extent some ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: 4 to 1 ratio would produce a foot of sleet. I had 6 to 8 Valentine’s Day it was like shoveling beach sand. Yeah it's prob more like 8-10" of sleet mixed with pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Zip, Zippo, Nada.......... Looks like it would have to be sleet or ice over here. 2 feet of snow 25 miles away from rain with a lot of low level cold seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's prob more like 8-10" of sleet mixed with pixie dust. You definitely get slightly better ratios in sleet when there's low level flake production in a very cold air mass. It's not a lot but there's a ratio difference between 30F sleet and 16F sleet mixed with dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Icon, at all, but at 6/7 days out especially lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's prob more like 8-10" of sleet mixed with pixie dust. What's the standard ratio for sleet ... something like 4:1 or - you know ... "10:1" is snow ... Maybe 3:1 ... obviously stacking physics with ~ spheroids is more efficient then snow, but obviously... not as efficient as plain rain heh.. I'm just wondering ... 8" of sleet would be a flood warning rain event no problem, right - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Icon, at all, but at 6/7 days out especially lol. Probably one of the first times i even looked, I didn't know SV had it.........lol, Wonder what the JMA and NAVGEM have? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's the standard ratio for sleet ... something like 4:1 or - you know ... "10:1" is snow ... Maybe 3:1 ... obviously stacking physics with ~ spheroids is more efficient then snow, but obviously... not as efficient as plain rain heh.. I'm just wondering ... 8" of sleet would be a flood warning rain event no problem, right - wow I've usually seen 3:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably one of the first times i even looked, I didn't know SV had it.........lol, Wonder what the JMA and NAVGEM have? j/k more accurate than the PARA I bet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's the standard ratio for sleet ... something like 4:1 or - you know ... "10:1" is snow ... Maybe 3:1 ... obviously stacking physics with ~ spheroids is more efficient then snow, but obviously... not as efficient as plain rain heh.. I'm just wondering ... 8" of sleet would be a flood warning rain event no problem, right - wow It seems to depend on temps. Typically I think it's closer to 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 but in very cold soundings where the inverted cold layer gets below -8C or -9C, then we tend to get those "pixie dust" elements fogging up the precip curtain...poorly formed ice crystals below the warm layer. They add to the ratios so it's more like 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: I've usually seen 3:1. It rings a bell ... Hey Brian what's ur snow pack up that way... ? how pervasive - is that "connected" continental with Canada... I'm curious because as Scott or maybe it was Will and I were mentioning, having a "fresh" high N should enhance the ageostrophy anyway but the old 'coming off a snow pack' argument (which I don't mean to explode ...) also adding... It's another thing ... the GFS' notion of a flatter wave may be correct but it could still be off with the low level frontal slope/wedging extending S ... adding to icing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 If the main deal is still Sunday this is still lala land. Hiping trends keep this anti large cutter next 48. I’ll be happy w anything frozen and maybe we have good idea by Wednesday ? Ginx i really like a big over running event , can pile up QPF, hold onto Low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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