ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We're gonna have to see if we start integrating more -NAO into the pattern at some point...the ensembles are definitely showing a more typical longwave pattern that is associated with a -NAO near the end of their run and this matches the Euro weeklies that were showing it forming more robustly around the end of January and into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Agreed. But I’m skeptical about blaming the woeful gfs too much on that important aspect. Hopefully the shut down will end soon and we should theoretically see a spike in performance a few weeks later if that premise is mainly responsible. I agree, but the way things have been going, the shutdown will probably end when winter is near an end. At least it will help for hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is certainly not suppressed Nope certainly not suppressed. Not going to show up on the mean snow map but quite the ice signal in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro That’s just the op, not the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Meanwhile for the would be storm this weekend DC is in the sweet spot it seems. RIC is too tainted and north of BWI too fringed. IAD trouncing BOS in the winter of 2018-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Huh, ensemble mean not as impressive as I'd have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: IAD trouncing BOS in the winter of 2018-19. Thank you for pointing that out. I had no idea. I thought BOS was neck in neck with the top performers... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Huh, ensemble mean not as impressive as I'd have thought. That’s not what I have. I have 12+ for that time period and 18+ for the mean for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nope certainly not suppressed. Not going to show up on the mean snow map but quite the ice signal in SNE. Decent snow signal in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s just the op, not the ensembles The ensemble members are there for certain parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s not what I have. I have 12+ for that time period and 18+ for the mean for most of us. Weird disparity across sources... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Huh, ensemble mean not as impressive as I'd have thought. Huge difference between Stormvista snowfall maps and WB/US wx EPS mean maps. My earlier post about the EPS was based on the SV maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Weird disparity across sources... And SV usually is the tamest. Either way it’s probably going to snow multiple times and accumulate in the coming weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Weird disparity across sources... Skewed by IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to see some of those 'massive' individual members... Grindr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: The ensemble members are there for certain parameters. I learned something new. Thanks. I see them now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Maybe a qpf mean is better since snow maps are vendor generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Skewed by IP? That would be my guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The snow maps mean absolutely nothing at this time range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 38 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ditto dude. I have something to do. However even so I want to see the individual members as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Meh. Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues The eps does brush them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues Plenty of time for the SREFs mean to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 EPS looked nice. What’s the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Plenty of time for the SREFs mean to be right. Don’t do it.... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues I saw the EPS has some snow getting up to long island as well....last second hail Mary for a coating to an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The snow maps mean absolutely nothing at this time range. Yeah definitely, neither do Day 7-10 op runs. It is interesting the differences between vendors though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looked nice. What’s the issue? Good QPF signal for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I saw the EPS has some snow getting up to long island as well....last second hail Mary for a coating to an inch? Keep in mind that if the drunk member gives an inch of qpf and the other 50 members zilch the mean world show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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