Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: It's funny, but the last couple of runs show a better organized system, coming a hair further north. I'll go with a solid dusting for ACK. I know it is the GEFS but there were a few that had some now into long island as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: We take. 12z/12 GEFS snow maps are 30+. Kevin stop saying there’s no upper air data...I don’t think that’s true. The main thing missing is fixing issues. ???? They’ve said there’s missing data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Jimmy laughing to the bank if that verified. Most snow in NE over the next week and a half while ORH over to NE Mass try to cover the mulch Can’t wait for the all caps obs thread for that lol. One of these days though it’s gonna happen though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: ???? They’ve said there’s missing data Who said that? Maybe some raobs that went down and can’t be fixed with the lack of current appropriation but most are functioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Eps works for me.Region wide 10-12 and up to 15”+ on the EPS at this range? Oh yeah Jerry. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WeatherX said: Region wide 10-12 and up to 15”+ on the EPS at this range? Oh yeah Jerry. . 1 minute ago, WeatherX said: Region wide 10-12 and up to 15”+ on the EPS at this range? Oh yeah Jerry. . Hey John..we’ve missed you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We mentioned be leery of ice profiling ... as though deliberately to emphasize the point, that para run of the GFS with 24 hours straight of severe icing - that would be probably 2+" of accretion in a band somewhere ... Basically, N. Worcester Co/'08 spread out over a much larger area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Who said that? Maybe some raobs that went down and can’t be fixed with the lack of current appropriation but most are functioning? I referred to this blurb from a Washington Post article several days ago: "The current Global Forecast System - or the GFS - the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We mentioned be leery of ice profiling ... as though deliberately to emphasize the point, that para run of the GFS with 24 hours straight of severe icing - that would be probably 2+" of accretion in a band somewhere ... Basically, N. Worcester Co/'08 spread out over a much larger area In 08 it creeped as far south as Oxford; if the GFS were to verify I could see it being a N CT to NH line tyoe event; hope its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Whatever happens, I'm just glad we're getting some eye candy on the models. Until a week ago, even that was pretty much impossible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Modfan said: In 08 it creeped as far south as Oxford; if the GFS were to verify I could see it being a N CT to NH line tyoe event; hope its wrong. Mm... looking a little closer... that's actually a huge broad sleet band... good for 1.5" total of rattling ... but there would still likely be a band that's perhaps 20 miles wide of pellets and accretion mixed. It would be warning ice either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I referred to this blurb from a Washington Post article several days ago: "The current Global Forecast System - or the GFS - the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data." I started laughing after “the United States’ premier weather model”. and keep in mind the Union steward isn’t the most unbiased individual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I referred to this blurb from a Washington Post article several days ago: "The current Global Forecast System - or the GFS - the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data." AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 That’s a sexy eps look, drooling, as mentioned. Agree with Tippy, op looked off after digging the trough into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I started laughing after “the United States’ premier weather model”. and keep in mind the Union steward isn’t the most unbiased individual. It has been pretty bad since Xmas though. Right there with the Navy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: AMOUT It’s a union officials opinion as to why gfs sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 It's amazing how proficiently the post-modern era of Internet western society is at exposing an underlying lapse in the critical thinking ability of the general population. It's always been this way that lay-folks tend to believe ... but having the hoi-polloi have access to information does provide for an explosion of colorful renditions of reality ... which then go on to become ethotic, whether true or not. Gee - wonder why 'fake news' ever found a target. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Doesn’t look so bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 I wouldn't become invested in details until like mid week...but looks about as good as can be hoped for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a sexy eps look, drooling, as mentioned. Agree with Tippy, op looked off after digging the trough into the GOM. Per Earthlight there are a lot of massive solutions in the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s a union officials opinion as to why gfs sucks. I think the facts of what he said are correct. No one is there to adjust the GFS for the new data input format, so data that is available and readable by the other global models should be more reliable. I don't know about the CMC, though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Per Earthlight there are a lot of massive solutions in the EPS. Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to see some of those 'massive' individual members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's amazing how proficiently the post-modern era of Internet western society is at exposing an underlying lapse in the critical thinking ability of the general population. It's always been this way that lay-folks tend to believe ... but having the hoi-polloi have access to information does provide for an explosion of colorful renditions of reality ... which then go on to become ethotic, whether true or not. Gee - wonder why 'fake news' ever found a target. Excellent post. I was just pondering this. We have been through this so many times. The only thing anyone should be focusing on at these lead times is, the signal is there consistently and across guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to seem some of those 'massive' individual members... Ditto dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to seem some of those 'massive' individual members... Damn John......if I knew you 40 years ago..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I think the facts of what he said are correct. No one is there to adjust the GFS for the new data input format, so data that is available and readable by the other global models should be more reliable. I don't know about the CMC, though, lol. Agreed. But I’m skeptical about blaming the woeful gfs too much on that important aspect. Hopefully the shut down will end soon and we should theoretically see a spike in performance a few weeks later if that premise is mainly responsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Excellent post. I was just pondering this. We have been through this so many times. The only thing anyone should be focusing on at these lead times is the signal is there consistently and across guidance Yup ... mentioned this earlier myself. I'm actually still in that mode of reflection for now. Having cross-guidance support for that spatial-temporality is definitely the more immovable aspect. The details and individual model runs? That's just either eye-candy at one end, or venting-fights at the other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Agreed. But I’m skeptical about blaming the woeful gfs too much on that important aspect. Hopefully the shut down will end soon and we should theoretically see a spike in performance a few weeks later if that premise is mainly responsible. There was more recent information that the GFS is pretty normal. They had some data issues early on but apparently it is fixed now. Ohleary (works for NOAA) had posted something about it. You can actually see the scores on it rebounding recently back to where it typically is. I'm going to treat it as normal which means it's inferior to the euro and prob the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to see some of those 'massive' individual members... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Meanwhile for the would be storm this weekend DC is in the sweet spot it seems. RIC is too tainted and north of BWI too fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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