ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 EPS have much better ridging out west going forward than the 00z run. We're prob going to see these oscillations...both showed a "Good" pattern, but the degrees of "goodness" matter sometimes if we're trying to get blockbuster snows. We like a more amplified ridge for a larger ticket event....KU types....the 00z flatter ridge would still be ok, but you'd expect less zonked systems and less phasing when the flow is not as amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPS have much better ridging out west going forward than the 00z run. We're prob going to see these oscillations...both showed a "Good" pattern, but the degrees of "goodness" matter sometimes if we're trying to get blockbuster snows. We like a more amplified ridge for a larger ticket event....KU types....the 00z flatter ridge would still be ok, but you'd expect less zonked systems and less phasing when the flow is not as amplified. Seriously this time ... (not trolling I promise...) but is the gradient still rife with lots of curved parallel lines - ahahaha I just can't get off my soap box on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS have much better ridging out west going forward than the 00z run. We're prob going to see these oscillations...both showed a "Good" pattern, but the degrees of "goodness" matter sometimes if we're trying to get blockbuster snows. We like a more amplified ridge for a larger ticket event....KU types....the 00z flatter ridge would still be ok, but you'd expect less zonked systems and less phasing when the flow is not as amplified. especially in this high-shear high-gradient environment. Both have to relax or it's even harder in marginal west ridging situations to get phasing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, MJOatleast7 said: especially in this high-shear high-gradient environment. Both have to relax or it's even harder in suboptimal west ridging situations to get phasing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Everyone should worry about Indy They scare me the least out of all remaining teams. THeyll come here and lose by 20 just like they always do. The more things change, the more they stay the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Seriously this time ... (not trolling I promise...) but is the gradient still rife with lots of curved parallel lines - ahahaha I just can't get off my soap box on that I mean, it's not Hudson Bay omega block with diffuse flow down south Feb 2003-style if that is what you are asking...but it's pretty decent IMHO....there's def some gradient but I do like seeing the southeast not so resistant to getting the 570dm line down near the gulf coast. This is also a mean....so there's room for interpretation here on how an individual threat may look in such a longwave pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Much as I love the Pats, I'd put better odds on a repeat of Feb '15 than them winning the SB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Influenced? okay ...no problem... "mostly due to the MJO.." Mm... I don't like that.. I think if anything the Pacific should have gotten better from a phase 8 present and the fact that it didn't improve .... that markedly, is a flag of less than mostly. That's all - The problem is it zoomed passed phase eight pretty quick and that’s where I presume that it was a CCKW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: With a gtg sandwiched in between Almost like someone planned it that way ; ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Much as I love the Pats, I'd put better odds on a repeat of Feb '15 than them winning the SB. I said the exact same thing LMAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, it's not Hudson Bay omega block with diffuse flow down south Feb 2003-style if that is what you are asking...but it's pretty decent IMHO....there's def some gradient but I do like seeing the southeast not so resistant to getting the 570dm line down near the gulf coast. This is also a mean....so there's room for interpretation here on how an individual threat may look in such a longwave pattern Thanks for posting this ... You know, I really wish that magenta vortex over/N James bay was over Japan/Kamchatka ...and that blue-ness over there was over James Bay. That would be plenty cold that way. We don't need to carve our the Challenger Deep trench in the atmosphere ... and the balance geostrophic medium is thus not hugely sloped from the subtropical America to cP regions... But your right... the very best solutions for (I think) the type of storms folks want in here is more sluggish down S of 40th parallel, with a steeper thermodynamic gradient in the ambient 850... Through a nuke impulse through that? BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Agree on the Patriots... I realize I'm contributing to a derailment wreck ... but, relying on intangibles to beat the Chargers (even) is heh... good luck. Because the Pats are not mathematically beating that team the day after tomorrow... I tell you what... of the teams remaining,... should the Chargers win I'm backing them... Of all of them, they have been the less offensive over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agree on the Patriots... I realize I'm contributing to a derailment wreck ... but, relying on intangibles to beat the Chargers (even) is heh... good luck. Because the Pats are not mathematically beating that team the day after tomorrow... I tell you what... of the teams remaining,... should the Chargers win I'm backing them... Of all of them, they have been the less offensive over the years. Anyone except the Eagles as far as I'm concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Isotherm is right, and a few of us have been saying that. The Pacific, mostly due to the MJO, has acted a bit more nina like. We have had forcing near 135E, 850 MB easterlies, all which really go against Nino. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel and have heard that it should change later this month into February. My largest regret is not going 1969 as the main analog instead of 1978. I balked at how RNA that year was...in the end we will see a compromise imo. I still think the 1969 idea with more PNA and less NAO will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Good for Mookie too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Sounds like he's hedging a bit. Im not surprised. As we keep missing out on snowstorms, sooner or later it becomes more than just bad luck. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, kdxken said: Bingo I think he is acknowledging that the threats haven't panned out and is explaining why. I don't think he is hedging RE the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: They scare me the least out of all remaining teams. THeyll come here and lose by 20 just like they always do. The more things change, the more they stay the same Agreed . Anybody would look good against Houston . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Nothing is f*&cked here dude, nothing is f&*cked. You're being very un-dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anyone catch that 936 (ouch!) low in the C Pac yesterday (that went into the Aleutians). Something that powerful's gotta have an impact downstream, any guesses what? (Reminds me of the 926 or thereabouts - lowest pressure ever in the Bering Sea - in 2014 and you know what happened after). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can’t do this right now, but I posted a couple of days back a chart that showed the enhanced forcing me MJO in Indonesia. There is no question to me anyways that it influenced the pattern. You had 850 mbar easterlies convergence in Indonesia, divergence aloft over Indonesia, lots of convection there, and enhanced pacific jet. This worked constructively, , with the big low we had in Alaska. Now as we hEad Deeper into the season, wave lengths change, a much weaker MJ O wave, and the effects should not nearly be anything close to what we had in December.This also looks to move east and hopefully be more constructive with Nino. Just a quick thought that I've had pertaining to the above bolded comments. I haven't had a lot of time to participate on the boards this season thus far, however I have been reading quite a bit. It was discussed several years ago, I believe in an ENSO thread. That the actual sst's and not the anomalies are what we should be looking at for a clearer picture. I haven't seen that discussed this year, but I have to think that it's played at least some role in what you've mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: Anyone catch that 936 (ouch!) low in the C Pac yesterday (that went into the Aleutians). Something that powerful's gotta have an impact downstream, any guesses what? (Reminds me of the 926 or thereabouts - lowest pressure ever in the Bering Sea - in 2014 and you know what happened after). my bad that was actually 924 in Dec. 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: Anyone catch that 936 (ouch!) low in the C Pac yesterday (that went into the Aleutians). Something that powerful's gotta have an impact downstream, any guesses what? (Reminds me of the 926 or thereabouts - lowest pressure ever in the Bering Sea - in 2014 and you know what happened after). They get some pretty monstrous storms now and then. If those were coming ashore they would be dominating the forum and the news. Over there, they are like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Just a quick thought that I've had pertaining to the above bolded comments. I haven't had a lot of time to participate on the boards this season thus far, however I have been reading quite a bit. It was discussed several years ago, I believe in an ENSO thread. That the actual sst's and not the anomalies are what we should be looking at for a clearer picture. I haven't seen that discussed this year, but I have to think that it's played at least some role in what you've mentioned above. Yep that matters too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Dissecting d10 threats with surgical precision followed by the usual pats crowd explaining away a touch of mediocrity. We need snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Dissecting d10 threats with surgical precision followed by the usual pats crowd explaining away a touch of mediocrity. We need snow! I keep saying it can’t get worse than 2012. Lose the Super Bowl and know there is nothing to look forward to weather wise. The opppsite happened in 2015. I kept saying “well at least I have a foot to look forward too..” as everyone and their mom thought SEA would run it in to end the game. Then Pete Carrol and his mental defecation gave us the win. What else would you expect that winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I keep saying it can’t get worse than 2012. Lose the Super Bowl and know there is nothing to look forward to weather wise. The opppsite happened in 2015. I kept saying “well at least I have a foot to look forward too..” as everyone and their mom thought SEA would run it in to end the game. Then Pete Carrol and his mental defecation gave us the win. What else would you expect that winter? I'm riding the Red Sox win the world series during weak El Nino analog.....monster late January-onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm riding the Red Sox win the world series during weak El Nino analog.....monster late January-onward. Well then we 04-05? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anafrontal wave on gfs. We fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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