Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: I'm wondering about the Nina-esque performance of the Pacific so far, particularly the W Pac. It seems that unless that firehose jet changes in a big way, we're in as much of a 2011-12 situation as if there were a one-eyed pig over AK. Specifically, the ridiculous persistence of a 210+ kt jet over the western Pacific colocated with that huge wedge of warm SSTs from China to N of Hawaii. There's always a chicken-and-egg question about SSTs driving or being driven by atmospheric circulation, but are they coupled with/ reinforcing each other and drowning out every other signal in the atmosphere? I almost wonder if folks have been sort of looking at ENSO from the wrong direction - speaking of chicken and egg metaphor. It's QBO ... I suspect. I do think that something might be suppressing convection somewhere ... but, that means that oceanic-atmospheric coupled physical state may be less effective at transferring heat from SST to air... Heat accumulates and could be partial in forcing a warm state given time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Actually that eps depiction is rather wonderful if you’re not James. Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Hazey said: Sounds like he's hedging a bit. Im not surprised. As we keep missing out on snowstorms, sooner or later it becomes more than just bad luck. If everything turns out to be a bust then it may be the biggest blunder since at least 01/02, and remember that modeling was far less advanced back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: If everything turns out to be a bust then it may be the biggest blunder since at least 01/02, and remember that modeling was far less advanced back then. Funny thing is... I remember a lot of bad winter calls in autumn. Ha, one case in point, The Farmer's Almanac. anyway, not including that one. But then this idea started convincingly abasing those calls given time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Funny thing is... I remember a lot of bad winter calls in autumn. Ha, one case in point, The Farmer's Almanac. anyway, not including that one. But then this idea started convincingly abasing those calls given time... Indeed there were a few early calls of a dud winter. Not sure who initially started the epic winter train but everyone jumped on board after that. Why the hell not?..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Pats pull it off this weekend and KC pukes all over themselves and next weekend would be no "luck" for Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Pats pull it off this weekend and KC pukes all over themselves and next weekend would be no "luck" for Indy. I got a ton of money on KC to cover in that game. Seems they’re giving Indy a bit too much respect at just 5 or 6 and the bad weather may not help them either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Isotherm is right, and a few of us have been saying that. The Pacific, mostly due to the MJO, has acted a bit more nina like. We have had forcing near 135E, 850 MB easterlies, all which really go against Nino. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel and have heard that it should change later this month into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I got a ton of money on KC to cover in that game. Seems they’re giving Indy a bit too much respect at just 5 or 6 and the bad weather may not help them either I can see both teams having issues, It looks like a few inches of snow overnight into Saturday and low 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Isotherm is right, and a few of us have been saying that. The Pacific, mostly due to the MJO, has acted a bit more nina like. We have had forcing near 135E, 850 MB easterlies, all which really go against Nino. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel and have heard that it should change later this month into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Well there will be no question where the polar vortex is over the next couple weeks. Here is a hint, it ain’t in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Isotherm is right, and a few of us have been saying that. The Pacific, mostly due to the MJO, has acted a bit more nina like. We have had forcing near 135E, 850 MB easterlies, all which really go against Nino. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel and have heard that it should change later this month into February. What lat/long (and models of choice) does one typically look at for 850 wind anomalies. If it's equatorial, Seems they're worsening on the GFS but getting better on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I got a ton of money on KC to cover in that game. Seems they’re giving Indy a bit too much respect at just 5 or 6 and the bad weather may not help them either Bad weather is better for the colts, they have the more complete team. -5 is a too good to be true line...give me colts +5 for 500 Alex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Keep it centered over HB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The thing is, this is not nearly the same pattern. Not whatsoever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Isotherm is right, and a few of us have been saying that. The Pacific, mostly due to the MJO, has acted a bit more nina like. We have had forcing near 135E, 850 MB easterlies, all which really go against Nino. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel and have heard that it should change later this month into February. See ...that's where y'all lose me. I disagree Or, let me put it this way ... someone convince me otherwise. The MJO has been fighting to penetrate a phase 8 wave the whole way, and the fact that it is terminating directly at the COD is also another signature of wave interference there. The MJO's latent heat fluxing is not as effectively entering the mid latitude due suppression damping from negative interference. Which means it's ability to do any modulation is also hindered by super-synoptic negative. Frankly... if the WPO is positive for other reasons...good luck getting the wave to modulate as much out of the marine continent. You're statement that I've bold implies the MJO controls the pattern ... It's a pattern enhancer - be it positive or negative... But maybe that's what you meant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Bad weather is better for the colts, they have the more complete team. -5 is a too good to be true line...give me colts +5 for 500 Alex. Odds are nobody in the AFC is winning the SB anyway. New England would give me some belief if they had to go through KC but if they get two cupcake teams at home they’ll get smoked by just about anybody coming out of the NFC. This is by far the worst they’ve looked to me over 16 games since 2008. Then again the Pats have fared oddly in SBs mostly winning games they deserved to lose and losing games they were largely the better team 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, MJOatleast7 said: What lat/long (and models of choice) does one typically look at for 850 wind anomalies. If it's equatorial, Seems they're worsening on the GFS but getting better on the Euro 5S-10N or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well there will be no question where the polar vortex is over the next couple weeks. Here is a hint, it ain’t in Europe. But but but QG Omega said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well there will be no question where the polar vortex is over the next couple weeks. Here is a hint, it ain’t in Europe. But but but snoski 142737r28 promised it would be over Europe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Bad weather is better for the colts, they have the more complete team. -5 is a too good to be true line...give me colts +5 for 500 Alex. Indy has had the hot hand, And KC can's stop a pin hole leak with a piece of bubble gum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: But but but QG Omega said... Just now, mreaves said: But but but snoski 142737r28 promised it would be over Europe! Lol ninja'd! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 That’s one snowy eps run!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Odds are nobody in the AFC is winning the SB anyway. New England would give me some belief if they had to go through KC but if they get two cupcake teams at home they’ll get smoked by just about anybody coming out of the NFC. This is by far the worst they’ve looked to me over 16 games since 2008. Then again the Pats have fared oddly in SBs mostly winning games they deserved to lose and losing games they were largely the better team I don't consider SD being a cup cake and would feel the same if it was Indy as well, The cupcakes lost there frosting last weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: See ...that's where y'all lose me. I disagree Or, let me put it this way ... someone convince me otherwise. The MJO has been fighting to penetrate a phase 8 wave the whole way, and the fact that it is terminating directly at the COD is also another signature of wave interference there. The MJO's latent heat fluxing is not as effectively entering the mid latitude due suppression damping from negative interference. You're statement that I've bold implies the MJO controls the pattern ... It's a pattern enhancer - be it positive or negative... But maybe that's what you meant? I can’t do this right now, but I posted a couple of days back a chart that showed the enhanced forcing me MJO in Indonesia. There is no question to me anyways that it influenced the pattern. You had 850 mbar easterlies convergence in Indonesia, divergence aloft over Indonesia, lots of convection there, and enhanced pacific jet. This worked constructively, , with the big low we had in Alaska. Now as we hEad Deeper into the season, wave lengths change, a much weaker MJ O wave, and the effects should not nearly be anything close to what we had in December.This also looks to move east and hopefully be more constructive with Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't consider SD being a cup cake and would feel the same if it was Indy as well, The cupcakes lost there frosting last weekend. Everyone should worry about Indy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Everyone should worry about Indy Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Everyone should worry about Indy There good on both sides of the ball, There no pushover but we will see how the weather affects the game, Snow may be over by game time there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I really appreciate all the reasoned discussion about MJO and tropical forcing on this forum. I feel it's getting us closer to understanding why this engine of winter won't start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can’t do this right now, but I posted a couple of days back a chart that showed the enhanced forcing me MJO in Indonesia. There is no question to me anyways that it influenced the pattern. You had 850 mbar easterlies convergence in Indonesia, divergence aloft over Indonesia, lots of convection there, and enhanced pacific jet. This worked constructively, , with the big low we had in Alaska. Now as we hEad Deeper into the season, wave lengths change, a much weaker MJ O wave, and the effects should not nearly be anything close to what we had in December.This also looks to move east and hopefully be more constructive with Nino. Influenced? okay ...no problem... "mostly due to the MJO.." Mm... I don't like that.. I think if anything the Pacific should have gotten better from a phase 8 present and the fact that it didn't improve .... that markedly, is a flag of less than mostly. That's all - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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