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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Isn't the mini VDay D12? The D8 storm doesn't look super exciting to me as is. Pretty bad that the best we can do is analyze long range GFS solutions.

D8-9 looked like a sleet bomb to me after a bit of front end snow.  It's like +3 to +4 at 850 in ORH county with a temp in the upper teens. Not that this really matters right now.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

D8-9 looked like a sleet bomb to me after a bit of front end snow.  It's like +3 to +4 at 850 in ORH county with a temp in the upper teens. Not that this really matters right now.

Yeah I agree...I'm getting my clown range GFS storms mixed up. 

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm definitely not as scared of sleet storms as many on here...esp right now. Bare ground? Perfect time for a sleet bomb after a few inches of arctic sand....put some bass into the pack and then let the fluffer nutters fall on top of it. I think many are afraid of sleet because they correlate it with changing to rain too....often sleet is just a temporary stopover on the way to a 34F rain....but obviously if it stays sleet, then it can actually be kind of cool.

 

#sleetembrace

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm definitely not as scared of sleet storms as many on here...esp right now. Bare ground? Perfect time for a sleet bomb after a few inches of arctic sand....put some bass into the pack and then let the fluffer nutters fall on top of it. I think many are afraid of sleet because they correlate it with changing to rain too....often sleet is just a temporary stopover on the way to a 34F rain....but obviously if it stays sleet, then it can actually be kind of cool.

 

A good heavy sleet storm is fun.  Like 3-4" of sand.  That stuff takes forever to melt and plow piles look like a 8-10" storm because there's an inch of frozen water in it.

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I don't want sleet all the time, but I'll take a good sleet storm for the base. Even powderfreak doesn't mind some sleet in the pack.

 

The sleet that fell in '07 helped keep that pack around....bulletproof. We had like 2" of sleet and 6" of snow in that one.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

A good heavy sleet storm is fun.  Like 3-4" of sand.  That stuff takes forever to melt and plow piles look like a 8-10" storm because there's an inch of frozen water in it.

Ha, great timing....I just posted above how you like sleet and you're def a powderhound. But some sleet has its place. Like I said, I would't want it all the time.

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GEFS snow totals are 24+ for many through the next 2 weeks.   If only..

It was a huge weenie run this cycle....exceptionally active northern stream in a meridional flow. It's a good setup for miller Bs. Hopefully EPS follows suit...it was a bit flatter at 00z (still a solid pattern, but not like a 12z GEFS)

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Already huge differences at D6 between 12z Euro and 00z Euro.

EPO ridge is a lot more amped and PV further south....should probably give us a better look for 1/19-20. BTW, I'm not saying this is correct....but I think this is a good lesson for those who want to understand how much the PV placement can change the look and also how much the placement of these features can change from run to run.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Already huge differences at D6 between 12z Euro and 00z Euro.

EPO ridge is a lot more amped and PV further south....should probably give us a better look for 1/19-20. BTW, I'm not saying this is correct....but I think this is a good lesson for those who want to understand how much the PV placement can change the look and also how much the placement of these features can change from run to run.

I think we finally catch a break with this one.  Maybe it only breaks 60-70% our way this time, but chances abound afterward.  

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guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious.    

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious  

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

"Supernatural rapey"  -Dr. Tip

LOL

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was a huge weenie run this cycle....exceptionally active northern stream in a meridional flow. It's a good setup for miller Bs. Hopefully EPS follows suit...it was a bit flatter at 00z (still a solid pattern, but not like a 12z GEFS)

Can you post a h5 map pointing to this maradona flow? I need to visualize at h5, preferably with arrows, I like arrows. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

guys... really... you drift.  You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously.  ha. wow. 

I get it... life is boring for many.  They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model.  that's hilarious.    

Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything.   And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth.  But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result??  something like that...  I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. 

I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ...  I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

You kind of miss the point here John.

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7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

"Supernatural rapey"  -Dr. Tip

LOL

haha...  That was all sardonic snark just in case...  

Yeah, I mean... I do agree that loading cold into Canada is good... I said that earlier... I'll say it again... having -20 C at 850 slabbed over the continent, with periodic -30 C plumes rattlin' around inside isn't a bad table setting..

no.. 

But, I'd like to see the gradient relax ...a little. It certainly is a tantalizing look having the hornet sting ready to roll through southern California mid way through the Euro run though... But the GFS had that two.. and ended up having to smear it into an ice storm... 

 

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