40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Give me - EPO or give me death. Some fretting over the PNA might want to look at upper air maps for 1/26/15 The PNA is a large concern, Steve. No absolutes, but you want a PNA ridge....this is why we are getting the crap solutions, right now. Pop that ridge, and I think it would dive further south, phase better, and end up colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember...this is the parallel that I am drawing in my mind. This next 20 days is crucial...if we make it to February without a major event, then I will be very concerned about my snowfall ideas. Not there yet. I think very good come back will still be on the table, but my numbers won't work out if we wait that long. We'll probably get dick through Feb 25th, then get four storms in three weeks at 20" a pop in March ... but, if you had not had your melt-down back circa the 17th ... the season would have blithely terminated to crocus shoots and cherry mocking blossoms. That's how this game is played ... making you look totally wrong when you were totally right... and making nimrods look like heroes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What's your snow totals in inches please Saw this from New Foundland That looks maybe the west coast or northern peninsula? 59.6" at yyt. Probably in the range of 10 to 12" above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd already be concerned about your totals...starting from such a low point. I don't doubt the big 6-8 week period, but even a 50 or 60 spot will leave most well short of your forecast...and that's a big finish too (A place like ORH would be 10-20 higher than those numbers). If we had managed what we usually do in a combo of crappy and average patterns (even a brief good pattern in early Dec), then you'd be looking a lot better. Even storms that don't totally work out, getting 3" on the front end helps the seasonal totals in the end. We haven't been able to even do that. If its just decent period, sure.....but two twenty-spots and a few moderate events changes things. We'll see....I probably should have gone with 1968-69 like totals, instead, but not over yet. I'll probably need 1/20 to come through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The PNA is a large concern, Steve. No absolutes, but you want a PNA ridge....this is why we are getting the crap solutions, right now. Pop that ridge, and I think it would dive further south, phase better, and end up colder. I put the wrong year, was Jan 12th 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Long range rdps gets james into the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Long range rdps gets james into the action. I like DC area for max 5 or 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If its just decent period, sure.....but two twenty-spots and a few moderate events changes things. We'll see....I probably should have gone with 1968-69 like totals, instead, but not over yet. The tough part is getting 2 events of 20".....that is very hard to do. Granted, it's happened in a few past weak El Ninos (2015, 1978, 1969) that you have been using as analogs....but they could easily turn into 10-15" events too if something is slightly off. At least the pattern looks really active, so if you miss 1/20, then you'll have a few more shots to get some decent totals up in January before the calendar flips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I dunno... I tongue-in-cheeked it that February 2019 looked more like February 2015 than February 2015 looked like it would ever be a "February 2015" a month or so ago ... I'm starting to wonder if we should be pulling tongues back in from the cheeks on that. It may be totally by coincidence that things break more favorably in February - and in fact, ... that seems to follow logically anyway, because the leading indicators comparing both years, I don't think were all too similar. But, I think back to the other dearth years of my life ... none have really looked like more than enough cold, and ample supplies of available thermodynamic theta-e being in surplus leading to nothing - this would be a unique way of getting a bad winter done if it parlayed the rest of the way and I just tend to fall into odd's thinking on this... We could never establish a solidly identifiable "good" pattern and get mauled by accident with this utter powder keg of parameters 'poking the bear' the way it is. 2012-2013 is the worst winter which in my subjective opinion is actually in a dead heat tied with 1994-1995 ... both years had something in common that is not the same as this season... There were weak S/W's in dry continental circumstances that edged above normal much of the way. We may be above normal but we have more cold air around than those years. And we are definitely not dry at a continental scale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The tough part is getting 2 events of 20".....that is very hard to do. Granted, it's happened in a few past weak El Ninos (2015, 1978, 1969) that you have been using as analogs....but they could easily turn into 10-15" events too if something is slightly off. At least the pattern looks really active, so if you miss 1/20, then you'll have a few more shots to get some decent totals up in January before the calendar flips. Its why I said 20 to 1 longshot that ORH sees 80 from here on out ,only happened in 05 and 15 out of what 100 years of data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I put the wrong year, was Jan 12th 2011. If we have a davis strait block, then the PNA will matter a lot less...the Lindsay Storm in Feb '69 also had a raging -PNA bit it had a great davis straight block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Long range rdps gets james into the action. He’s hyperventilating now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Great post by Bluewave. The MJO is REALLY starting to anger me! I said a few days ago that the MJO was headed rapidly out of 8 and into 5. Don Sutherland noted the same, but everyone scoffed. It’s headed to 5 and plays into the cutter next weekend. That cutter may flip things to a better pattern by 2/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Mjo is definitely the weenie buzzword of the year though. Seriously. Sick and tired of the MJO. Might as well talk about the QBO & the AMO while we're at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If we have a davis strait block, then the PNA will matter a lot less...the Lindsay Storm in Feb '69 also had a raging -PNA bit it had a great davis straight block. That was a great storm. Was at Berkshire Basin then for my 12th birthday. Dryslot had 32 inches and Tamarack around 40. I was at ski school in the Berks during Feb vacation week for the 100 hr storm which was only a foot there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: I said a few days ago that the MJO was headed rapidly out of 8 and into 5. Don Sutherland noted the same, but everyone scoffed. It’s headed to 5 and plays into the cutter next weekend. That cutter may flip things to a better pattern by 2/1. That wave is so weak....barely even getting out of the COD....I think there's way too much focus on its influence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 For Ray https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/Snow%201969.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjC6424g-bfAhWt1VkKHZnJASYQFjANegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1PwCYCdCzi9MGWYtLugGH9&cshid=1547220293083 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That wave is so weak....barely even getting out of the COD....I think there's way too much focus on its influence. Someone needs to post the Jan 15 late month MJO so we can put this to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Long range rdps gets james into the action. Long range? Only goes to 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Scott Melted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If we have a davis strait block, then the PNA will matter a lot less...the Lindsay Storm in Feb '69 also had a raging -PNA bit it had a great davis straight block. We don't have the huge NAO yet....1969 could get await with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah. And thats why the study specifically works with phases above 1 stdev on the wheeler-hendon diagram. In lower amplitudes the signal just washes out relative to the other forcing. The signal to me seems fairly weak at vp200 and sort of stretches across the equatorial pacific. Some signs this is more maritime continent, but at least to me..didn’t exactly stand out like it did in December. I’ll chexl out that paper later. contin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Someone needs to post the Jan 15 late month MJO so we can put this to bed MJO was in phase 8 when we had our cutter on 1/18/15. Spent most of the rest of Jan/Feb in the COD, briefly emerging as a weak 7/8 wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I know everyone sick of MJO. I think the reason it became so popular this year is the negative phases lines up with our recent terrifying pattern, whether by sheer coincidence or due to or a piece of the puzzel. New ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That wave is so weak....barely even getting out of the COD....I think there's way too much focus on its influence. I agree it’s weak and may not have a huge influence, but it will have some and is no help. Next weekend is not a good setup aside from well interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: MJO was in phase 8 when we had our cutter on 1/18/15. Spent most of the rest of Jan/Feb in the COD, briefly emerging as a weak 7/8 wave. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Hazey said: Long range? Only goes to 48hr. http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I know everyone sick of MJO. I think the reason it became so popular this year is the negative phases lines up with our recent terrifying pattern, whether buly shear coincidence or due to or a piece of the puzzel. New ECMWF See, that's not even that scary of a diagram....it spends like 3 days as a weak phase 5 and then goes back to the left side. That's assuming it's even right...it could end up staying in the COD too like other guidance. I think recency bias is helping people overestimate the influence of the MJO. Not to be lost in all this....we just spent a week in phase 7/8 with nothing to show for it except a rainstorm 2 days ago unless you were in NNE. The synoptics vastly outweigh the MJO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: MJO was in phase 8 when we had our cutter on 1/18/15. Spent most of the rest of Jan/Feb in the COD, briefly emerging as a weak 7/8 wave. As a general caveat emptor ...added to the notion that the MJO gets too much attention/focus ... There is a time-lag. The effectiveness/influence-ability of any given wave doesn't concurrently exist in the pattern... the momentum takes time to distribute down wind. So I'm not sure what your conversation re this subject matter is/was leading to your post above ... but, "having a cutter during Phase 8" would almost be acceptable given that wave behavior above as it graphically passed through 5 and 6 mere days prior to that arc on the left hand side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: As a general caveat emptor ...added to the notion that the MJO gets too much attention/focus ... There is a time-lag. The effectiveness/incluence-ability of any given wave doesn't concurrently exist in the pattern... the momentum takes time to distribute down wind. So I'm not sure what your conversation re this subject matter is/was leading to your post above ... but, "having a cutter during Phase 8" would almost be acceptable given that wave behavior above as it graphically passed through 5 and 6 mere days prior to that arc on the left hand side Theres no lag between 8 and snowstorms though. The lag is between 6 and snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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