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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Well there's that.

But wait for what? I wasn't commenting on anything other than this run itself..  It's a shit run.  K? 

nothing else was implied 

Cool.

I was just messing with the other comment....all good.

I think we could all use some meds after the past 2 mnths.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ground up this run....it's 7 days out. I wouldn't really track it yet. If it shows up as something a couple days from now, then yeah.

Flow gets very meridional this run....Tip points out the vortex crushing a lot of things, but the meridonal flow can be good too. It helps amplify northenr stream impulses...many of which the model probably can't even "see" yet this far out.

That pattern is a recipe for a northern capture near the 40th parallel.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cool.

I was just messing with the other comment....all good.

I think we could all use some meds after the past 2 mnths.

anyway, so it a bad run...  In fact, I'm reasonably confident that 00z will show a whole-scale different look  - maaaybe an exception that stays some semblance with the EPO ridge up there. 

Otherwise, ...I've never seen such a mess ...  There's like NO pattern here.   It's really pretty amazing to see the model attempt nebular spaghetti with such gradients.  It's achieving this giant intensely undulatory mess yet... too compact to generate cyclones. It basically like igniting a gas chamber but keeping it capped so dense it won't explode.  interesting.. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

anyway, so it a bad run...  In fact, I'm reasonably confident that 00z will show a whole-scale different look  - maaaybe an exception that stays some semblance with the EPO ridge up there. 

Otherwise, ...I've never seen such a mess ...  There's like NO pattern here.   It's really pretty amazing to see the model attempt nebular spaghetti with such gradients.  It's achieving this giant intensely undulatory mess yet... too compact to generate cyclones. It basically like igniting a gas chamber but keeping it capped so dense it won't explode.  interesting.. 

Eventually it’ll explode. 

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Eventually it’ll explode. 

Maybe ...maybe not...metaphorically speaking of course. 

Thing is, there's so much exotic potential that you gotta scratch your head over whether the atmosphere can really pull off never exhausting it by continuously creating negative interference at all scales/dimensions like it's doing.  That's really what that is.. Huge extremes of thermodynamic gradients and the embedded wave spaces won't allow anything to tap into it...  

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe ...maybe not...metaphorically speaking of course. 

Think is, there's so much exotic potential that you gotta scratch your head over whether the atmosphere can really pull off never exhausting it by continuously creating negative interference at all scales/dimensions like it's doing.  That's really what that is.. Huge extremes of thermodynamic gradients and the embedded wave spaces won't allow anything to tap into it...  

Yea, all we can ask for is to have the exotic potential....details be damned.

Thanks for the insight...appreciate it.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Right? Pattern overall looks a lot better. This weekend was really a thread the needle in a crappy overall pattern. 

Yep.  I never took this weekends modeling of a storm here seriously.  I agree that the patter has changed or is transitioning but we are still looking at threats 10 days away.  It's been like that for 2 months.  Get these within 5 days and I'll work my juju.

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Snowy next weekend on tap.

Which weekend?

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’s the 17th threat look?

Great, now we have to hear about how we're getting 1-3" on the 17th for a week.

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’s EPS look for the 17th clipper?

Seriously, look what you did. lol

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