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January 2019 Discussion


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Well to be fair, it’s not quite to the extent that you are making it out whineminster.  

If things start picking up in the next week or so...we are entering the heart of winter, as mid to late January through mid and late February are climatological peak.  So it’s all good..plenty of prime time winter time ahead.  

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why would you stop following the models before they even begin agreeing on the details, Ryan you know better.

The coastal is closer to the coast down near SNJ

I think NYC will see 1-2 inches with more to the south

The confluence is the killer once again

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I am sorry, there is no confluence at hour 108 keeping this south of SNE.  That zone is slowly moving out since previous runs, we are more than 102 hours away from the event, we have so much time on our hands right now, we cannot give up on the snow threat.  Maybe Ray can, because he wants a lot of snow in a storm, but I still think 3-6" along the south coast of SNE, is still possible and we cannot give up on the event.  We have no model consensus still on the details at H5, until then, there is no reason to say there is no threat.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am sorry, there is no confluence at hour 108 keeping this south of SNE.  That zone is slowly moving out since previous runs, we are more than 102 hours away from the event, we have so much time on our hands right now, we cannot give up on the snow threat.  Maybe Ray can, because he wants a lot of snow in a storm, but I still think 3-6" along the south coast of SNE, is still possible and we cannot give up on the event.  We have no model consensus still on the details at H5, until then, there is no reason to say there is no threat.

There is confluence to the north squashing this.

 

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am sorry, there is no confluence at hour 108 keeping this south of SNE.  That zone is slowly moving out since previous runs, we are more than 102 hours away from the event, we have so much time on our hands right now, we cannot give up on the snow threat.  Maybe Ray can, because he wants a lot of snow in a storm, but I still think 3-6" along the south coast of SNE, is still possible and we cannot give up on the event.  We have no model consensus still on the details at H5, until then, there is no reason to say there is no threat.

I'll be lucky to see 3-6 cirrus streaks.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

There is confluence to the north squashing this.

 

There is no confluence that is strong enough to keep this storm south, what keeps this storm south and not able to intensify is lack of phasing between streams, and also the lack of an intense southern stream disturbance, one that is consolidated.  I think we have seen trends in the past storms that were southern stream dominant come in stronger once we got within 48 hours of the event, this is possible as well.  I will give the models another 48 hours before giving up hope on an event at all.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

There is no confluence that is strong enough to keep this storm south, what keeps this storm south and not able to intensify is lack of phasing between streams, and also the lack of an intense southern stream disturbance, one that is consolidated.  I think we have seen trends in the past storms that were southern stream dominant come in stronger once we got within 48 hours of the event, this is possible as well.  I will give the models another 48 hours before giving up hope on an event at all.

ITS BOTH.

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