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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It won't give up. I mean look there is still time I suppose, but that is an outlier. 

Does the disqualifier written about the GFS being off and not being able to be fixed because of the govt shutdown also apply to the para, Scott? If so, nothing but the Euro and its ensembles can be used for now.

 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That hasn't changed. About what you can ask for. As long as people keep things in perspective and are reasonable. I wouldn't assume 2015 is walking through the door and every storm is snow.

Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time."  We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted.

 

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time."  We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted.

 

 

2015 did just that.

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time."  We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted.

 

 

Nothing since November is downtime? Downtime from what? 

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16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Some of the disappointment with this winter is going to be even if it's really good later on, a lot of us couldn't even manage half of our average snow during the "down time."  We all knew there would be down time before Jan 20th, but getting zero zip nada nil for the first 50 days or so of Met winter was something no one ever predicted.

 

 

This winter won't get much passed a C+ IMO. 

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does the disqualifier written about the GFS being off and not being able to be fixed because of the govt shutdown also apply to the para, Scott? If so, nothing but the Euro and its ensembles can be used for now.

 

I don't trust much of anything from any GFS related product more than 5 days out. The PARA scores weren't much better.

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14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

While this is being stated within a different context, every time I see references to 2015, I can't help but thinking of James' conjuring up how every storm--even day 10 ones--is 1978 or Juno reincarnate.

 

Silly analogy....unless someome specifically excpects 100" in 30 days. But there is good reason to believe that this winter will evolve in a generally similar fashion.

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