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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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Yeah funny, this run exactly counters what I had just posted...

The scooter streak is weaker, allowing the southern system to get more north.

Later, there is some interaction via a very weirdly shaped trough. That lagging northern stream energy is disjointed from the rest of the system that is already OTS.

Strange run. Different evolution... lots of different ways to get 0 impact.

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10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah funny, this run exactly counters what I had just posted...

The scooter streak is weaker, allowing the southern system to get more north.

Later, there is some interaction via a very weirdly shaped trough. That lagging northern stream energy is disjointed from the rest of the system that is already OTS.

Strange run. Different evolution... lots of different ways to get 0 impact.

I think some eps members showed that too. You can see the hangback of LP. I wouldn’t want to hang my hat on that.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Funny the tail end of that ULL down south tries to curl in enough and PVA tries for a hangback or redevelopment of low pressure way down south. 

I feel like there were more than a couple of the EPS members that actually have accumulating snow Monday into Tuesday. I would assume that they were also seeing this as a possibility.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The other sites have the two separate and the fv3 comes out later too.

Exactly!  If you compare the NCEP site GFS with Tropical Tidbits GFS you could overlay them for a perfect match.  As I posted earlier, there is no staff working in the Modeling Center to make such a change, and there has been no communication from NCEP that any change has taken place.

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Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Exactly!  If you compare the NCEP site GFS with Tropical Tidbits GFS you could overlay them for a perfect match.  As I posted earlier, there is no staff working in the Modeling Center to make such a change, and there has been no communication from NCEP that any change has taken place.

Chris (GYX) said its implementation is delayed at least another month because of the shutdown.

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