Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: If we can just get even an advisory this weekend, it would feel like busting in a bloop single to win the game. Just grab an inch and stroke it into the corner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just grab an inch and stroke it into the corner Lol we need a good 2” been dusted last several times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Jimmy said he would dial it back up a few notches this winter. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Disclaimer: It is the clown range NAM But it is prob going for a partial phase at 84....def more than it looked at 12z. So I'm hopeful this means we can keep trending it. The trend is what I'm focusing on more than verbatim solutions. We'll see what 18z GFS and 18z Euro show later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scooter has a thing for left leaning members Nothing wrong with leaning left especially in MA. Looking good post 1/20. Ray will be unbearable and deserving of a red tag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just glanced at Euro... these H5 depictions seem to vary significantly from run to run, more so than usual for D5-6 lead. Particularly with handling of the northern stream vort. In any case, a slightly better stream interaction and this system tracks so much closer than 0z. Plenty of time for improvement. And more importantly... 12z EPS looked beautiful in the 300-360 range. Burgeoning +PNA/-AO. It's way out there, but for a change it's robust and definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Per the Washington Post yesterday: Weather models are not being maintained, launched or improved. Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown. But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data. “Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.” ---------------------- This may explain why there was no FV3 at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Anyone know if NARR on e-wall PSU is down because of the government shutdown? The NOAA links say "not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Per the Washington Post yesterday: Weather models are not being maintained, launched or improved. Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown. But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data. “Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.” ---------------------- This may explain why there was no FV3 at 12z. Thanks for posting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Disclaimer: It is the clown range NAM But it is prob going for a partial phase at 84....def more than it looked at 12z. So I'm hopeful this means we can keep trending it. The trend is what I'm focusing on more than verbatim solutions. We'll see what 18z GFS and 18z Euro show later. The NAM hasn’t been as hideous beyond 60 the last couple of years. As a matter of fact there’s been times it’s caught onto flat solutions before the globals did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 That thing coming out of the Canada though, that just screws everything up. It seems so hard to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Starting to feel the tide turning finally and some of us might start seeing that tomorrow, then cold shot and then 2-3 storms to track every 10 days for a month or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That thing coming out of the Canada though, that just screws everything up. It seems so hard to avoid. We aren't avoiding it....our best hope is to phase it...even if only a partial phase. Something like the clown range NAM at 18z is a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We aren't avoiding it....our best hope is to phase it...even if only a partial phase. Something like the clown range NAM at 18z is a good start. Even with that phase. Gonna be tough to gain latitude. Doable I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 33 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Nothing wrong with leaning left especially in MA. Looking good post 1/20. Ray will be unbearable and deserving of a red tag. Nah.....understanding how to dissect analogs and assign value appropriately is totally different than being able to wrap your mind around the actual underlying physics. I have a great amount of respect for that. I am not capable of it. Lets see what happens...looks good right now. I'm on a hot stretch, but the next monumental bust is always encroaching. KA had a run like this several years back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That thing coming out of the Canada though, that just screws everything up. It seems so hard to avoid. Do we want to avoid it or do we want to dance with it? Deeper digging and game is on, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Even with that phase. Gonna be tough to gain latitude. Doable I guess. Prob wouldn't be a major event...but it might get a moderate storm in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Prob wouldn't be a major event...but it might get a moderate storm in here. Exactly my hope with this one...pretty sure a big kahuna is off of the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Do we want to avoid it or do we want to dance with it? Deeper digging and game is on, I think. Ideally we would just avoid it and have it lift out, but that isn't going to happen...it's not going to trend 300-500 miles northeast....at least you don't play those odds. Stranger things have happened I guess. But since we're stuck with it, the best is to nudge it about 100-200 W or SW and get some partial phasing...that would at leats allow it to connect to the moisture source down in the southern stream....and get us a moderate event even if it's still a bit positively tilted. We'd need almost a full phase for a major KU type storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The Nam would work, since it already has good latitude and you figure a little bit of latent heat release would probably help keep that ball but with this weed from digging too far Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 We should just shutdown american guidance and use everything else rest of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ideally we would just avoid it and have it lift out, but that isn't going to happen...it's not going to trend 300-500 miles northeast....at least you don't play those odds. Stranger things have happened I guess. But since we're stuck with it, the best is to nudge it about 100-200 W or SW and get some partial phasing...that would at leats allow it to connect to the moisture source down in the southern stream....and get us a moderate event even if it's still a bit positively tilted. We'd need almost a full phase for a major KU type storm here. Exactly the ceiling I'm expecting... if you look at the biggest hits of yore (e.g. GFS 0z 1/8; GFS 0z 1/7 was the blizzard run), even those were positively tilted to neutral at best. Any run showing SNE impacts has had some degree of phasing. I think that's our best hope, unless somehow the southern stream energy comes in on steroids which I'm not expecting. The overall evolution and handling of that northern stream energy has been screwy... let's see if we get better stability in the next few days. At 5 days away, there is plenty of time for fluctuation, better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 50 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Per the Washington Post yesterday: Weather models are not being maintained, launched or improved. Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown. But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data. “Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.” ---------------------- This may explain why there was no FV3 at 12z. Unfortunately, this looks like the scenario Chris described last week when queried about the shutdown's effect on his (and co-workers') abilities to do their jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z GFS looks north through 90h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Weird, it's less phased, but the N stream is much weaker this run, so it gains latitude before the streak gets it late in the game. That vortmax trended like 300 miles northeast at 108h vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Scooter streaks are ruthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Scooter streaks are ruthless. That's why I want the phase...this one trended northeast solidly and it still got us at the last second. I don't think we can expect to get it a lot weaker....maybe we can, but going off the other guidance, I would say no. So I'm rooting for more of a NAM solution that would produce a partial phase versus the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 That sh it streak is messing up that Northern stream and not allowing that lead s/w to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Funny the tail end of that ULL down south tries to curl in enough and PVA tries for a hangback or redevelopment of low pressure way down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's why I want the phase...this one trended northeast solidly and it still got us at the last second. I don't think we can expect to get it a lot weaker....maybe we can, but going off the other guidance, I would say no. So I'm rooting for more of a NAM solution that would produce a partial phase versus the 18z GFS. Yeah agree. That’s the only game in town I think as far as something within the realm of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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