wxsniss Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The good trends are the massive pattern change still on. The threat over the upcoming weekend is fun if it happens but current guidance is weak.Exactly. It’s the strongest signal yet this winter, but as stated yesterday, consider Jan 13-14 a beta release. If GEFS have a clue, the assembly line is really optimized starting Jan 20’s.Also would not chase run to run swings. 0z GFS was very good.What’s curious about these 6 hr swings is the massive changes at H5 for the weekend. Euro yesterday 12z had this abrupt change too. Maybe it’s a pattern transition, but something is causing H5 progs to be relatively unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6Z GEFS have some members blouse to the coast.. but most trended towards being meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The FV3 GFS looks great but that model has been all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: The FV3 GFS looks great but that model is far from it. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well as mentioned many times previously, it’s not the pattern to get a storm up the coast really. We’ll see what today brings, but not good trends overnight. Heights in the southeast being relaxed won’t help. Sucker needs to gain some latitude across the southern tier for it to make a run at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Season of what can go wrong, will. Still 5/6 days out but we going the wrong way atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Right, just speaking about the weekend crap. I hope nobody got suckered into it but apparently some did. There is still some time to work on that, but let’s be reasonable too. I think the much colder weather is what made people get suckered into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well I did see those but didn’t see the individual EPS members this morning. They looked decent at 12z EPS trended flatter at 00z. Def not a good trend. Was hoping for better when the Ukie came in closer but didn't happen. We'll need to see a reversal pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The uncle, Sipping on a pint.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS trended flatter at 00z. Def not a good trend. Was hoping for better when the Ukie came in closer but didn't happen. We'll need to see a reversal pretty soon. At least our mud will remain frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The ground is unexpectedly white here this morning. I take that as a good augury of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: The ground is unexpectedly white here this morning. I take that as a good augury of things to come. It's a sign of a little more frozen mud on Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's a sign of a little more frozen mud on Thursday. Man...when you used Eore as your Avatar, nothing can be further from reality!! You are one negative person!! Holy Smokes what a Debbie buzzkill you are!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS trended flatter at 00z. Def not a good trend. Was hoping for better when the Ukie came in closer but didn't happen. We'll need to see a reversal pretty soon. Its over but then again it never was on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Man...when you used Eore as your Avatar, nothing can be further from reality!! You are one negative person!! Holy Smokes what a Debbie buzzkill you are!! LOL. thats what cutters and cold give you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 What will really be tough to take...is if the mid Atlantic scores another monster hit of 12-18, and we get shut out yet again! That’s a tough pill to swallow....especially since we’ve been blanked for the winter so far since November 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What will really be tough to take...is if the mid Atlantic scores another monster hit of 12-18, and we get shut out yet again! That’s a tough pill to swallow....especially since we’ve been blanked for the winter so far since November 15th. But the pattern change! Ratters gonna rat. That is the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Geps is more northwest than the op run Plenty of time to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Geps is more northwest than the op run Plenty of time to go If the models' trends at 12z continues to progress worse, I think it'll be time to move on. Hopefully they'll at least hold steady and stop the bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Its over but then again it never was on Stupid post...you're trying to too hard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Taken with a grain of salt but 6z gfs gives most of SNE 1/10 an inch of QPF after Wednesday am till January 24 The melts will recommence and some Mets will be involved should this occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What will really be tough to take...is if the mid Atlantic scores another monster hit of 12-18, and we get shut out yet again! That’s a tough pill to swallow....especially since we’ve been blanked for the winter so far since November 15th. Maybe you need to change your name from Leblanc to Lachance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 22 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: But the pattern change! Ratters gonna rat. That is the pattern. Hey meatball, the pattern change isn't until the 20th and after. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hey meatball, the pattern change isn't until the 20th and after. This is turning into Jan 2013 and Jan 2015 all over again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is turning into Jan 2013 and Jan 2015 all over again.... And I am very ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This is turning into Jan 2013 and Jan 2015 all over again.... You called it. If this weekend misses it's off the Tobin they go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You called it. If this weekend misses it's off the Tobin they go. You’ll follow should the pattern “change” morph into 7-10 days of favorable pattern from say Feb 3-12 and then revert I would put an O/U at Bos for year currently at 25” ORH 35.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Someone pull up eric’s Gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Dood got called a meatball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Heavy dusting in Lowell, maybe 0.2" if I stant stick it, 28.0/26. Looks like 2-3" up north on my webcam, 15.8/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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