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January 2019 Discussion


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You can see how the forcing (this is basically divergence at 200mb which would allow for convection) was centered near 135E and only slowly moved eastward. This are what I was looking at when I was speaking about the PAC jet back a couple of weeks ago. Now we have some subsidence moving through with another weak wave moving in later this month. But look how weak it is with some areas of possible forcing along the equatorial regions. This is why some guidance has in in the COD...it can't get a coherent signal. This likely would be a good thing to get a more favorable Pacific.

 

https://wsienergy-product-content-prod-us-east-1.s3.amazonaws.com/1/graphics/subseasonal_diagnostics/SubSeasonal_LongitudePlots_vp200.ECMWF.anom.MJO.5S-10N.190107221253.png?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJTKDVCWXNSRBT76A&Expires=1546990075&Signature=lCMQhlP5mHYTnsR2qIAoEXN%2FoX4%3D

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Per Don Sutherland:

 

“Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude.”

You have no clue.

Be gone.

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49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can see how the forcing (this is basically divergence at 200mb which would allow for convection) was centered near 135E and only slowly moved eastward. This are what I was looking at when I was speaking about the PAC jet back a couple of weeks ago. Now we have some subsidence moving through with another weak wave moving in later this month. But look how weak it is with some areas of possible forcing along the equatorial regions. This is why some guidance has in in the COD...it can't get a coherent signal. This likely would be a good thing to get a more favorable Pacific.

 

https://wsienergy-product-content-prod-us-east-1.s3.amazonaws.com/1/graphics/subseasonal_diagnostics/SubSeasonal_LongitudePlots_vp200.ECMWF.anom.MJO.5S-10N.190107221253.png?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJTKDVCWXNSRBT76A&Expires=1546990075&Signature=lCMQhlP5mHYTnsR2qIAoEXN%2FoX4%3D

 

 

 

I dunno I don't like those rmm plots. The continued COD bias they have had and they get side tracked with other noise in the atmosphere. Looking at that though, kind of agrees with Mike's Vp maps. Looks like current wave should hold into the IO from what I'm seeing.  I guess the little convection in the maritime continent is what is throwing the rmm plots for a loop as to determine which is the wave to focus on? So basically they re caught in between both forcing mechanisms?

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

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Gfs still has a light snow event off the vistigial southern steam. 

The main difference I can tell is the northern stream handling. It's backed off the amplitude of the northern stream substantially so there's less diving in lakes to do the subsume capture scenario-that's really the only difference because the southern stream is actually been quite consistent last several cycles. 

Can somebody vet that the GFS data of formatting claim?

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gfs still has a light snow event off the vistigial southern steam. 

The main difference I can tell is the northern stream handling. It's backed off the amplitude of the northern stream substantially so there's less diving in lakes to do the subsume capture scenario-that's really the only difference because the southern stream is actually been quite consistent last several cycles. 

Can somebody vet that the GFS data of formatting claim?

The past couple runs have moved away from a well timed pv lobe but the initial h5 look thru friday is more organized and thus, a good or even better southern stream. If this continues, it becomes a decent quick hitting one stream wave. Not bad to get us back on winter’s horse. 

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