Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Who is cancelling snow?  I just meant the GFS has gone in the shitter since the federal shutdown...not that it was great to begin with.  I would just give it less credence for now.

Even the NWS in Boston didn't have kind things to say about the GFS today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol GFS scores haven't changed. They stayed in suck range 3rd or 4th

Just going based on this...could be fake news 

“But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it.

“There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems on Dec. 25,” Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk.

Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Greg said:

I think some of the 1978 talk is a bit over the top but a "Coastal Bomb" development-like pattern can occur.  For that, I'll throw my hat into the ring with this upcoming potential pattern.  Keep your eyes peeled and fingers crossed at all times!

No, it isn't.

I'm not referring to any specific threat...just the pattern that lies ahead in general.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My God. A few weenies cancelling snow based on an off hour gfs run . God this place sucks anymore. Even if a miss , there’s still light accumulation this weekend with the N stream as Mets discussed.  Get a GD grip 

Easy bro, you’re like an economist of weather forecasting. Predicted 10 out of the last two recessions. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My God. A few weenies cancelling snow based on an off hour gfs run . God this place sucks anymore. Even if a miss , there’s still light accumulation this weekend with the N stream as Mets discussed.  Get a GD grip 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Aren’t you the kid that came into our forum yesterday making up false info about Mjo and ensembles and caused weenie panic. 

Actually the EPS, our statistically best medium to longer range forecasting tool is taking the MJO rapidly back into phase 5. So don’t get too excited yet there buddy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Actually the EPS, our statistically best medium to longer range forecasting tool is taking the MJO rapidly back into phase 5. So don’t get too excited yet there buddy. 

Nope.

And it’s correcting left every day.

 

572813F7-34A0-43AF-BC25-480D061A4341.gif

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nope.

And it’s correcting left every day.

 

572813F7-34A0-43AF-BC25-480D061A4341.gif

Per Don Sutherland:

 

“Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Per Don Sutherland:

 

“Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude.”

Old forecast of MJO and not factually correct today.  I showed you the latest prog from eps this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • ORH_wxman locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...